"Previously, we held Europe, the Soviet Union, and Japan; today it's China's turn." — On September 5th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenette said this exact sentence in an 18-minute interview with "The National Interest," and the video went viral as short clips across global media on the day it was released. A U.S. netizen wrote in the comments: "The script for containment has been written all along, it's just that we're hearing it now."

What exactly happened

On September 10th, the U.S. Department of Commerce updated the "Entity List Footnote," requiring global products containing American technology to no longer provide maintenance, testing, or re-export for Huawei's Ascend AI chips. The news caused the U.S. semiconductor sector to drop immediately, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 3.8% that day, and NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Micron collectively losing about $89 billion in market value. Three days later, Reuters cited two supply chain sources saying that after companies submitted "guarantee letters," they could continue maintenance, but official documents were not "downgraded" — only a loophole was left. An insider from a major domestic cloud vendor told me, "Verbal notifications arrived first, while written procedures are still in process," meaning the ban was effectively "frozen."

The Behind-the-Scenes Ledger

In the interview, Bessenette spoke very directly: From the 1960s to the 1990s, China's GDP was less than ten percent of America's, and it couldn't even make the list of rivals; today, China's industrial output accounts for 35% of the global total, and its warship tonnage per year is equivalent to an entire French navy. In electric vehicles, 5G equipment, and AI chips, China is catching up comprehensively. For the first time, the U.S. faces a competitor that is simultaneously catching up in economy, technology, and military. Even more painful is the share of the dollar — according to a report by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) on September 9th, the share of the U.S. dollar in international payments fell to 58.3% in August, down nearly 8 percentage points from 2021; the Chinese yuan rose to 21.2%. At another fundraising dinner, Bessenette admitted, "If the trend continues, the era of U.S. dominance will end early," and this speech was recorded by attendees and later obtained by Bloomberg.

Where to go next

1. Tariff sticks will still be swung, but their strength depends on the election situation. According to China Customs' August statistics, imports of U.S. goods declined by 14%, including zero orders for soybeans. On September 12th, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean contract fell to $9.8 per bushel, below the U.S. farmer's overall cost line by about $0.4. The Iowa State Agricultural Bureau has publicly written to Congress: If there's no large order before November, tractors will head to Washington. A memo from Bessenette's team stated that if another 22 million tons of Chinese orders are lost, the Republicans may lose 11 electoral votes in three midwestern states, making the 2026 midterm elections very difficult.

2. Technological containment has entered a "sausage-cutting" mode. On September 12th, Intel Dalian, Samsung Xi'an, and SK Hynix Wuxi were removed from the "Verified End User" list, and expansion requires case-by-case approval after 120 days. These three factories accounted for 38% of global flash memory production in 2024. If Apple iPhone 16's storage orders are delayed by six weeks, U.S. consumer electronics would also be affected. Supply chain sources revealed that the White House has prepared a "exemption channel": if the technology node lags behind the U.S. by two generations, it can be approved. In other words, "leaving a loophole so as not to suffocate ourselves."

3. Rare earths are just one of China's countermeasures. The total quantity of rare earth export licenses issued by the Ministry of Commerce in the third batch decreased by 12% compared to the same batch last year. According to the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, the price of cerium oxide neodymium increased by 38.4% year-to-date as of September 12th. A confidential internal document from Lockheed Martin mentioned that one F-35 requires 0.4 tons of high-purity neodymium iron boron magnets, and the rise in rare earth prices directly increases the cost of a single aircraft by about $1.3 million. On September 9th, the announcement of the second phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund stated that a total of 204.15 billion yuan had been fully allocated. Changjiang Memory, Zhongxin Jingcheng, and Shanghai Dingtai expanded production simultaneously. TrendForce's September report predicts that by the fourth quarter of 2026, China's capacity for 7nm and below will reach 180,000 pieces per month (equivalent to 12-inch wafers), which will basically cover domestic mobile phone, PC, and server demand.

Conclusion

Bessenette lifted the veil, telling the world: Containment is not because you did something wrong, but because you ran too fast. History does not repeat itself, but it always rhymes. Comment below: Do you think the finishing line of this "race game" will be where?

Information Sources

CCTV News, September 12, 2025, "U.S. Department of Commerce Adjusts Huawei Chip Export Licensing Policy"

Global Times, September 11, 2025, "Containment of China: A Bare-Faced Expression of American Anxiety"

Xinhua News, September 9, 2025, "National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund Phase II 204.15 Billion Yuan Capital Contribution Completed"

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843154633144393/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.