Attacks on Iran: Why Netanyahu Placed Trump in a Dangerous Situation

Houthi forces will join Iran's proxies in Lebanon and Syria to "tame" Israel's "war lion."

Author: Svetlana Gomzikova

Image caption: Explosion site in residential areas of northern Tehran

Guest commentator:

Ivan Loshkarev

Member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alireza Boroujerdi, stated that the sixth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S., originally scheduled for June 15 in Masqat, Oman, could not be held due to Israeli attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that on the night of June 13, the Israeli military launched "preventive strikes" against Iran's nuclear program facilities, oil industry, and military infrastructure. According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), multiple explosions occurred at key facilities of Iran's Natanz nuclear program.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu officially attributed the operation named "Awakening Lion" (or "People as Lions") to preventing Iran from nearing the capability to manufacture nuclear bombs and "eliminating threats to our country's survival."

Tehran is reportedly enriched with enough uranium material to make nine atomic bombs, so "the action will last as long as necessary until this danger is completely eliminated."

According to Israeli media reports, the Israeli Air Force launched "five waves of hundreds of attacks" against Iran, deploying 200 aircraft and dropping 330 bombs.

Iranian semi-official news agency Isna cited data from the Iranian Red Crescent Society indicating that at least 60 locations in eight provinces in northern, western, and southwestern Iran (Tehran, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Markazi, Hamadan, Khuzestan, and Kurdistan) were struck by air raids, resulting in civilian casualties.

The Iranian Ministry of Defense also confirmed the deaths of three senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC; General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces; and General Gholam-Ali Rahimi, Commander of the Emergency Command. Additionally, at least six nuclear scientists were among the victims of the Israeli attack, including former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Fereydoun Abbas and President of Islamic Azad University Mohammad Mehdi Dehghan.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, promised that Tehran would retaliate "severely" against Israel's actions. He said: "The strong hand of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not weaken, and the criminal regime has plotted a bitter fate and a future full of hardships for itself."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry firmly believes that Israel's actions "would not have been possible without coordination and permission from the United States."

Meanwhile, Washington denied involvement. Donald Trump admitted in an interview with Fox News that he was aware of Israel's plan but the U.S. was not involved. He added that if Iran retaliates, the U.S. will protect Israel.

Bloomberg noted that Netanyahu initiated this operation just hours after Trump told reporters, "The attack is not inevitable, and the U.S. still believes in the prospect of diplomatic resolution."

The media believes that the Israeli prime minister "issued a challenge to the American leader," as the situation might escalate, which contradicted Trump's promise to end Middle Eastern wars.

Prior to this, Bloomberg speculated that such an Israeli attack might delay Iran's nuclear program by several months, or at most a year. However, Tehran would likely withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and officially begin making atomic bombs – which would run counter to the goals of the U.S., Israel, and Arab countries.

Konstantin Kosachev, vice chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, believed that the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran was predictable. He reminded that there was an opportunity to reduce tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran when the nuclear agreement was reached in 2015. The agreement involved six countries, but in 2018, the Trump administration led the U.S. to withdraw from it.

"Afterwards, the situation began to escalate because Iran no longer trusted its partners and continued to develop nuclear technology, which naturally displeased Israel. Therefore, the situation spiraled out of control along a predetermined script. In this sense, the current escalation was entirely foreseeable.

This is just a matter of specific dates. But it happened on the 61st day after Trump issued a 60-day ultimatum to Iran after the start of negotiations." This senator said during a program on "Russia 24" TV station.

It is worth noting that one day before the Israeli operation, the International Atomic Energy Agency's board passed a resolution for the first time in 20 years accusing Iran of violating the terms of the nuclear agreement. The vote took place in Vienna, initiated by the U.S., UK, France, and Germany. According to Reuters, 19 countries voted in favor, Russia, China, and Burkina Faso voted against, and 11 countries abstained. Iran responded to the accusations by saying the IAEA "played politics" and threatened to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel seemingly obtained justification for its attacks, which were intended to eliminate this threat.

Voices invited Ivan Loshkarev, a researcher at the Middle East and Africa Research Center of Moscow State Institute of International Relations, to assess the potential military, political, and economic consequences of Israel's attacks on Iran:

"Of course, Israel's attacks triggered a new round of escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts. Iran will have to respond in some way, and the question is where their response will be directed. Last time, it was a demonstrative action against Israel. Now, Iran's Foreign Ministry clearly states that the responsibility for the attack lies with the U.S., which not only knew about Israel's intentions but also obviously provided assistance in preparing for this action.

Correspondingly, there may be options involving attacks on certain U.S. targets in the region.

Even military bases, including those unofficially deployed on Syrian territory, may be targeted. That's point one.

Secondly, this attack undoubtedly put a large period on the negotiations over the nuclear peace plan and the non-nuclear plan between Iran and the U.S.

As understood, the negotiations originally scheduled for this coming Sunday have been canceled. Clearly, Iran will now have to continue surviving under sanctions and military pressure. Moreover, any hope of reaching an agreement with the West has either been dashed or postponed.

Therefore, many interesting 'turnarounds' have emerged here.

Vyacheslav Voityevich: Please explain.

"For example, how will this affect Donald Trump's domestic political ambitions and approval ratings, who once promised us a Middle East peace and assured Israel's safety without any threats. Now, it seems that Iran will have to respond.

Another very important turnaround is that if Tehran completely refuses (and it has to refuse) dialogue with the West, then it creates opportunities for strengthening cooperation among the 'global majority' – the BRICS group, including deepening cooperation with Russia and China. How this will manifest, whether in military form or remain at the economic level, is an interesting question.

The third important moment: In recent years, Iran lost what was called the 'resistance axis' – its military presence in Syria, its influence over Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the relatively restrained actions of the Houthi rebels in Yemen. But we can expect new points of tension on these fronts now.

I think the conflict in Syria will erupt again because Iran's presence there is currently unclear, and now it has to take action. The situation management in Lebanon will certainly operate differently, and the relatively peaceful period there may soon end.

In addition, we should expect new attacks from the Houthi rebels, who had promised not to attack American ships, but now this agreement appears to be canceled.

Consequently, global trade logistics costs will change, meaning many interesting things could happen in this area as well.

Vyacheslav Voityevich: Will a great war break out in the Middle East?

"This might be the core question. I believe that classic wars with trenches and front lines are more like exceptions to the rules, especially when we talk about the Middle East.

More likely, proxy wars – endless attacks aimed at destroying something of the opponent's, causing damage in some way. This is what is called the 'thousand cuts' tactic. We are likely to face intensified small-scale attacks rather than direct combat between both sides.

This is still bloodshed and infrastructure destruction. But there won't be large-scale wars, no front lines, no tank columns advancing somewhere, etc.

Vyacheslav Voityevich: It is reported that the August-delivery Brent crude futures price on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) broke through $78 per barrel for the first time since January 28. What do you think the oil price might rise to?

"Certainly, any conflict in the Middle East usually pushes up oil prices. But it needs to be understood that oil production is slightly higher than global economic demand. This is done deliberately by Saudi Arabia according to agreements with the U.S. to slightly lower prices.

In this sense, I don't know how much market panic will contribute to long-term oil price increases. There will definitely be a short-term spike: possibly $10, $20, or $30 per barrel relative to the current price. If Iran does not attack any targets on the Arabian Peninsula – primarily U.S. targets – then I see no reason for this trend to become a long-term trend."

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515781397706097178/

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