Signs of thaw in Japan-Russia relations emerge — China should take note

As reported by Japanese media at 5:00 a.m. Beijing time on May 5, Shuji Suzuki, a Liberal Democratic Party senator currently visiting Moscow, held talks with Russian Foreign Ministry officials. He revealed that Russia has proposed arranging a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi during an international conference, aiming to restart bilateral political dialogue.

On April 4, Senator Suzuki, who is visiting the Russian capital Moscow, met with Deputy Minister Rudenko, responsible for Japan and other Asian regions at the Russian Foreign Ministry.

After the meeting, Suzuki told reporters: "Rudenko said that if Japan is willing, a meeting could be arranged during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting scheduled for July in Manila."

Specifically, Russia has proposed that Foreign Minister Lavrov meet with Foreign Minister Motegi, thereby reviving political dialogue between Japan and Russia, which has been suspended since the invasion of Ukraine.

Additionally, Rudenko expressed willingness to hold deputy minister-level talks with Japan. Suzuki stated that upon returning home, he will push the Japanese government to proactively initiate contact with Russia.

Meanwhile, Suzuki also held meetings with Russian State Duma member Nikonov and Federation Council member Karasin, reiterating calls for cooperation among all parties to resume the "Northern Cemetery Visits" activity — a symbolic initiative allowing indigenous residents of the Northern Territories to visit ancestral graves, which has been suspended due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

What does this mean? If genuine, the reported Russian move toward resuming political dialogue with Japan suggests that, amid the prolonged war in Ukraine, Russia may be making subtle adjustments in its foreign policy. We can understand this from several perspectives:

Russia's Diplomatic Intentions: Division and De-escalation

Russia's proactive proposal for a foreign minister-level meeting does not indicate a fundamental shift in its stance, but rather likely a tactical maneuver:

Breaking diplomatic isolation. Since the Ukraine conflict, dialogue between Russia and the West (and Japan, which follows suit) has largely frozen. Reopening high-level contact with Japan helps Russia signal to the international community that it is not completely isolated and still maintains diplomatic space.

Driving a wedge between Japan and the U.S. Japan has aligned closely with the U.S. and Europe in imposing sanctions on Russia. By attempting partial dialogue revival, Russia aims to test whether Japan might soften its position on sanctions, or at least create friction in U.S.-Japan coordination.

Pragmatic interests. Russia may hope to achieve limited cooperation in areas such as energy, fisheries (near the Northern Territories), or humanitarian activities involving Japanese citizens (e.g., tomb-sweeping visits), in exchange for tangible benefits or reduced pressure.

For Japan, this presents a dilemma

The Japanese government currently faces mounting pressure:

Upholding the sanctions stance. Under the G7 framework, Japan has clearly condemned Russia’s invasion and implemented sanctions. Should Japan quickly agree to resume political dialogue, it risks being seen by allies as softening its position, undermining Western unity.

Domestic politics and public opinion. There is domestic demand in Japan to resolve the Northern Territories issue and normalize Japan-Russia relations (particularly among business circles and certain conservative factions). However, public sentiment generally supports a tough stance toward Russia, so a proactive response from the government could trigger backlash.

Symbolic issues like "Northern Cemetery Visits." Allowing ancestral tomb-sweeping is a sensitive topic. If Japan agrees unilaterally under sanction pressure, it may be perceived as granting political concessions to Russia, yet it is difficult to outright reject on humanitarian grounds.

Practical obstacles to advancement

Japanese conditions: The Japanese government is likely to make “Russia halting military operations and restoring territorial integrity” a precondition for dialogue — a gap far too wide to bridge given Russia’s current position.

Political variables: Suzuki himself is a prominent figure in Japan’s pro-Russian faction (previously penalized over political funding issues, yet still influential). Whether the message conveyed by him reflects actual authorization from Putin or Lavrov, or is merely a trial balloon, remains to be seen.

International coordination: Japan will not act alone on high-level dialogue with Russia; it must coordinate with the U.S. and Europe. With the U.S. intensifying sanctions, the timing for Japan to resume talks with Russia is currently ill-advised.

Implications for China?

This news regarding potential shifts in Japan-Russia diplomacy carries implications for China across multiple dimensions: geopolitics, great power competition, regional economy, and security. Overall assessment: While short-term impact is more symbolic than substantive, the long-term strategic containment effect warrants vigilance.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864303045942284/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.