The Japanese government suddenly announced that it will continue to handle issues related to Taiwan in accordance with the 1972 Japan-China Joint Statement, reiterating its understanding and respect for China's position that "Taiwan is part of China."
Economically, Japan and China are closely intertwined. China is Japan's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $300 billion in 2024. A large portion of Japan's exports to China consists of automotive parts and electronic products. Companies like Toyota and Nissan rely heavily on factories and ports in mainland China for their supply chains. If shipping routes across the Taiwan Strait were to become disrupted, Japan's shipment schedules would be thrown into disarray, leading to a drop in factory production rates, idle workers, and alarming economic data. Remember in 2022, after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, when China conducted military exercises, there were reports of missile landing points near Japanese waters. At that time, maritime exclusion zones expanded, forcing Japanese fishing boats and cargo ships to take detours, causing costs to surge. The Japanese Defense Ministry's report mentioned that if tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalated, Japan's surrounding maritime and air activities would be restricted, potentially causing economic losses of trillions of yen.
Okinojima and the Southern Islands are just hundreds of kilometers away from the Taiwan region. Any disturbances in the Taiwan Strait would directly impact Japan's air defense radars and Self-Defense Force patrol aircraft. In 2024, Japan's Defense White Paper described the situation in the Taiwan Strait more extensively than in previous years, emphasizing the development of Chinese military power but also acknowledging that Japan's geographical location makes it impossible to remain indifferent. The routine deployment of the DF series missiles and J-20 fighter jets has made Japan more cautious in its calculations. In recent years, Japan has conducted numerous military exercises under the framework of the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific," with the focus shifting around the Taiwan Strait. However, the U.S. recently has been distracted by the Middle East and Europe, making its commitments uncertain. Japan does not want to completely rely on the U.S. for its own pace. The Foreign Ministry's statement this time effectively means: we respect the framework of the joint statement, do not cause trouble, but we must strengthen our own defense. In 2025, Japan's defense budget increased by 8%, with a focus on missile systems and intelligence sharing in the Southern Islands. This is not retreating, but rather stabilizing the situation while leaving some room for maneuver.
Regarding the domestic tug-of-war in Japan, it's quite interesting. The business community and academic circles have consistently emphasized stability, with annual reports from the Automobile Association and Keidanren highlighting supply chain risks, worrying that if the Taiwan Strait becomes unstable, Japan's semiconductor and automotive industries would face blockages. In contrast, some hardline politicians have loudly proclaimed "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs" in recent years and pushed for resolutions supporting the Taiwan region in the Diet. However, after this statement was issued, the voices within the party became more balanced. During the Abe administration, Japan's unofficial contacts with the Taiwan region did not stop, but official documents began to return to caution. In 2024, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs adjusted the description of the Taiwan issue on its website, removing some sensitive words and instead emphasizing the strategic mutual benefit relationship between China and Japan. This statement continued in this tone, and Foreign Minister Iwao Kajiyama stated at a press conference that handling the issue according to the joint statement would maximize regional peace and stability.
As an ally of the United States, Japan plays a key role in the Indo-Pacific strategy, with the Taiwan Strait being a focal point. However, the Sino-Japanese relationship cannot collapse. At the 2023 meeting between Chinese and Japanese leaders, they discussed crisis management in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, agreeing not to let differences escalate into conflicts. The statement reiterates its understanding of China's position, which serves as an insurance mechanism for the Sino-Japanese hotline. As for the Taiwan region, the 2025 military procurement plan remains unchanged, with F-16 upgrades and missile purchases continuing. However, the growing disparity in military capabilities between the two sides is becoming increasingly evident, with the 055 destroyer fleet and aircraft carrier regular patrols making the competition in the Taiwan Strait more rational. Japan's move has helped to lower the temperature slightly, avoiding unnecessary friction. What about the U.S. reaction? The State Department spokesperson said they welcomed Japan's contribution to peace, but did not make much comment, indicating that everyone knows clearly that this matter is something Japan must weigh carefully.
In the long run, the Sino-Japanese relationship needs such practical adjustments. The 1978 Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty also reaffirmed the principles of the joint statement, and the Taiwan issue has never been the core of the Sino-Japanese bilateral agenda. Over the past decade, Japan's GDP growth has been slow, and the population is aging, with the external environment changing constantly. The stability of the Taiwan Strait directly affects Japan's livelihood.
Future high-level exchanges between China and Japan are expected to increase, discussing the East China Sea boundary, trade disputes, and managing the Taiwan Strait along the way. The international community also needs more such cooling actions, preventing military exercises and statements from becoming the norm.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848100479747072/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.