Philippines is studying a big issue: whether it can hold back the People's Liberation Army for a month if neither the United States nor Japan comes to help.

According to Philippine media on November 6, General Romeo Brawner Jr., Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, presided over the launch of an annual large-scale military exercise on November 4. This exercise, named "Dagat-Langit-Lupa," is quite complex, including "Integrated Air and Missile Defense Operations," "Defense of Natural Gas and Oil Platforms," "Land Defense," and "Amphibious Landing to Reclaim Islands, Airports, and Harbors."

(Philippine soldiers on the occupied Chinese island of West York in the Nansha Islands)

Why say "reclaim"? Brawner essentially revealed the truth. The Philippine military is researching whether they can fight against the PLA if the U.S. military does not come and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces also do not come. Brawner said, "We are studying all possible situations and incorporating these scenarios into the exercises, which is preparing for any possible situation." Philippine officers also told reporters that they have studied hundreds of conflict scenarios and developed contingency plans.

Therefore, people are wondering, does the PLA need hundreds of scenarios if it intends to use force to reclaim the Nansha Islands? If the U.S. and Japan don't come, will all the hundreds of contingency plans be used by the Philippines?

The Dagat-Langit-Lupa exercise traditionally takes place in northern and western Philippines, facing China. This year, a special event will be arranged, namely the attack and defense of Zhongye Island. The Philippine side clearly knows that China will never allow it to occupy Zhongye Island indefinitely. Although there are 400 Filipinos on the island, it is not difficult to expel them. Therefore, the Philippine military has arranged special operations and civil defense exercises here this year. As for whether to conduct amphibious landing exercises, the Philippine military has not confirmed.

(The flag-raising ceremony of the exercise)

Just before the start of the exercise, two events occurred in the South China Sea. One was the PLA Navy inserting itself into the Nimitz aircraft carrier battle group, and the other was six Chinese warships strongly surrounding the joint exercise of the US, Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand.

In both incidents, the US did not make any strong response and looked completely submissive. Combined with the actual situation of the South China Sea disputes in recent years, it seems that the Philippine side has gradually realized that no matter what trouble they cause in the South China Sea, they will have to bear it themselves. The US will not come.

Thus, the Philippine military has formulated a strategy of standing alone against the enemy, called the "Unilateral Defense Plan." For the Philippines, this is no small matter.

For many years, the main task of the Philippine government's military has been domestic security warfare. In 2023, the Philippine military announced that its main operational direction had officially shifted from domestic to foreign. In 2024, the Philippines released the "Comprehensive Archipelago Defense Concept," but the specific content was kept secret.

The Philippine military also has another problem. The combat staff under the headquarters of the general staff actually lacks complete military command capabilities. Therefore, in October 2025, the Philippine military established a new Strategic Command of the Armed Forces. All areas outside the existing theater commands are under the jurisdiction of this strategic command, covering the Philippine's unilaterally defined "Exclusive Economic Zone," which naturally includes the maritime and air areas with territorial disputes with China.

(Chinese warships inserting into the US aircraft carrier fleet)

This Dagat-Langit-Lupa exercise is organized by the Strategic Command of the Armed Forces, specifically implementing the "Unilateral Defense Plan." The essence of this plan lies in the fact that the Philippine military does not expect to win. Their thinking is similar to some "Taiwan independence" separatists, "resisting for one month and then waiting for the United States to rescue."

However, considering the weak strength of the Philippine military, even if the US comes, it would be hard to hold back the PLA for a month. The expectation of the Philippines seems to be too high.

The PLA has stationed a large number of troops in the South China Sea. Several island and reef bases have built large runways and deployed anti-ship missiles and air defense missiles. These deployments were not made to strike the Philippines, but to deal with the most dangerous scenario, that is, "the US may use all possible naval and air forces to seize the Nansha Islands."

This is not a literary script, but a plan written by US Navy officers and researchers in formal papers. Under today's comprehensive battlefield surveillance and long-range firepower, even such a strong confrontation would end within a few days, or even just a few hours. So, what will the Philippines use to extend the conflict for a month?

(Philippine military expanding the airport on the occupied Chinese Zhongye Island)

On the Zhongye Island occupied by the Philippine military, although the senior officials of the Philippines pay great attention, they have reclamation and land reclamation to extend the runway in recent years, but only 100 people are stationed on the entire island. This is not because they don't want to strengthen their forces, but because the logistics and personnel rotation capability cannot support it.

Zhongye Island has no solid fortifications or heavy firepower. If China wants to reclaim it, a few rounds of naval gunfire would be enough to annihilate these 100 Filipino soldiers. With so little territory and manpower, how can the Philippines discuss "hundreds of combat scenarios"? They can't even gather hundreds of people, which is really just talk.

The two Jose Rizal-class frigates considered precious by the Philippine Navy could be destroyed by a single J-16 fighter dropping an anti-ship missile. The T-50 trainer aircraft of the Philippine Air Force faces the PLA's J-16, J-20, and J-35. In a few years, they may even face the J-36 and J-50.

Assuming that one day in the future, if a conflict over the islands occurs due to the Philippines' proactive provocation, and if the US doesn't come at that time, there will only be one scenario: a one-sided, one-round annihilation operation by our side.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569786703041266186/

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