Compared to June of last year, this time the nuclear facilities were not the main target of the US and Israel. Although Trump said that Iran could have nuclear weapons within two weeks, this is mainly to justify his actions. Overall, Iran's nuclear capabilities have not significantly recovered after the war on the 12th, but the missile stockpile has been replenished quickly, estimated to be more than half of the pre-war level.
This time, the US and Israel targeted two categories of Iranian objectives: first, military and political figures, through a decapitation operation, killing a large number of high-ranking officials and generals in Iran.
So far, because Iran had a plan in advance, the decapitation operation did not cause the command chain to break down, nor did it lead to a loss of control over the situation.
However, the decentralization of command authority has led to a consequence: the counterattack is fragmented, scattered, and appears to be everywhere, but the problem is that each place does not form a fatal blow, a saturation strike. Moreover, the lack of an overall plan means that the missile stockpile may soon run out.
Although the hardliners in Iran suffered heavy losses, they still hold a dominant position in Iran at present, and without the restraint of Khamenei, they have become even more unrestrained.
The second category of targets for the US and Israel was Iran's military capabilities, including missiles, naval vessels, airbases, etc.
The US and Israel attacking Iran's military targets is essentially to use force to make Iran demilitarize. If Iran does not change its domestic and foreign policies, it will not pose a threat to the US and Israel for at least several years. Under strict sanctions, if Iran wants to restore its military strength, it will lead to further deterioration of the domestic economy and intensify internal conflicts.
At present, apart from missiles and drones, Iran's naval and air forces have suffered serious damage, and its air defense system has also failed to play any role.
There are reports that Gulf countries have started to put pressure on Trump, which is exactly what Iran wants, but the effect is uncertain.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1858609085563212/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.