Israel Bets on the Restoration of the Iranian Monarchy Doomed to Fail

Author: Yevgeny Krutikov

Israel is evidently sending signals about who it ultimately wants to replace the current Iranian regime. The answer points to Reza Pahlavi, the heir of the last Shah of Iran. Who exactly is this person? Why is he referred to as a "Zionist puppet" in Iran? Does he have any chance of taking power in Iran?

The 64-year-old Crown Prince Reza Gil Pahlavi, currently residing in the United States, is the eldest son of the last Shah of Iran. He attempts to call for an uprising among Iranians during the context of the Israeli-Iranian war, aiming to restore the Pahlavi dynasty's rule. He told American media: "The conditions for change have become more favorable for the first time in many years," and "the only traitor is Khamenei." Israel is actively supporting him.

In 1979, when the Islamic Revolution broke out, Crown Prince Reza, then 19 years old, fled Iran with his father—the former king's family—and settled in the United States ever since, considered the leader of the exiled Pahlavi family. Reza Pahlavi is one of the most determined critics of the Iranian "Ayatollah regime." He holds a degree in political science and has been very active on the international stage (especially in the United States) for decades.

After the 1979 revolution, the United States became a haven for most Iranian monarchist exiles. It is estimated that the number of Persian expatriates in the U.S. has now increased to about 2 million, the majority of whom hold monarchical views and support the restoration of the monarchy in Iran.

The fate of the exiled Pahlavi family has been full of misfortunes: Crown Prince Reza’s younger brother Ali Reza committed suicide in Boston in 2011 due to long-term depression and the burden of exile; ten years ago in 2001, his sister Leila Pahlavi, a former model for Valentino, committed suicide in Paris. She suffered from long-term neurological disorders, anorexia, and bulimia, and was also addicted to drugs.

However, Crown Prince Reza has thrown himself into political activities. But even American analysts have to admit that he has never gained substantial support in contemporary Iranian society. Even his recent interview calling on the Iranian people to "rise up" has headlines that read: "Exiled Iranian King Calls for Overthrowing the Regime – but Receives Few Responses."

In fact, there is nostalgia for the Pahlavi dynasty period in Iranian society: at that time, the country promoted European modernization and its economy was growing. This is similar to the nostalgia for the Soviet era in post-Soviet countries, which is essentially cultural — people only remember the good times and downplay negative memories. In Iran, sharing nostalgic photos from the Pahlavi era has become a trend: girls in jeans and miniskirts, and beautiful large cars on the streets.

But no one really wants to return to that corrupt, hierarchical, and oppressive era. The monarchist inclination in contemporary Iran belongs to an edge trend, lacking broad support. This is more like a psychological and cultural phenomenon, and politically, its only basis is the legitimacy of succession — thus, the 1979 revolution is considered an illegal act of violence, and restoring the rule of the Pahlavi family is seen as historical revenge.

But the reality is that restoring the royal regime is even less timely than a modern theocratic government. Interestingly, the Pahlavi family has always maintained close ties with other similarly "misplaced" families in Europe such as the Bourbon and Hohenzollern families. Although this may seem touching, it has no political value.

Another issue is the division within the opposition — this has evolved into a dilemma similar to that of the White Army movement after 1918 in Russia, where they could not reach consensus internally and eventually perished. Monarchists are just a small faction of the fringe forces within the opposition and constantly quarrel with other factions.

For example, the large-scale protests in 2022 with the slogan "Women, Life, Freedom" (triggered by the mysterious deaths of several young women who were accused by police of being "immoral" or "indecent") failed due to disagreements among different opposition groups.

The Pahlavi family (especially Crown Prince Reza) has never been viewed by Iranian society as an alternative to the theocratic regime, especially prominent in the context of the Israeli-Iranian war. In Iran, this conflict is seen as a confrontation between two nations, a political and strategic issue, rather than an opportunity to fight for democracy or regime change.

Israel clearly misjudged the internal situation of Persian society, which can be attributed to the current CIA director David Barnea. A major mistake was launching a war without adequate preparation, expecting social protest waves to erupt within the opponent — especially when intelligence is either unreliable or misjudged.

Another key issue is the Crown Prince himself and his relationship with Israel. In 2023, Reza Pahlavi made a strategic error: he visited Israel, attended Holocaust commemoration events, and met with Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence chief Gilo Carmi. This made him the highest-ranking Iranian to visit Israel in history, but it also gave Tehran reason to label him as a "Zionist puppet" — this is not just a propaganda label, but a real social perception. It would have been wiser for him to stay in his mansion in the U.S.

Moreover, his eldest daughter Iman’s wedding to Jewish-American businessman Bradley Sherman in Paris added fuel to the fire. Despite the lavish nature of the wedding and its lack of political ties, Crown Prince Reza's image in the eyes of Iranians has been completely ruined — he is now officially labeled as a "Zionist puppet with a passport stamp."

Israel's attacks further highlighted all the problems of the royal family: some opponents condemned Israel's aggression and turned to support the previously despised "Ayatollah regime" to defend Iran's independence; while Crown Prince and monarchists are deeply intertwined with Israel. Even the opposition that has continuously opposed the "Ayatollah regime" is uncertain whether the Pahlavi family's rule would be better — they neither want to cooperate with the West nor work with the Crown Prince because they cannot guarantee that the so-called "new regime" would be better than the current state of affairs.

Crown Prince Reza understands this, so he tries to draw a line between the Israeli-Iranian war and the restoration of the royal family in public speeches. He claims that Iranians "are smart enough" to understand that this is not "a war between Israel and Iran," but these remarks are unconvincing — Persians clearly do not want to hear this from the Crown Prince. His inability (or unwillingness) to express support for his homeland Iran and refusal to condemn Israel clearly betray the interests of Iran and its people.

Additionally, Iran fears that escalating conflicts could lead to the disintegration of the multi-ethnic state, similar to the fate of neighboring Iraq and Syria. Based on this, any opposition temporarily chooses unity to avoid national collapse — after all, Iran's history predates recorded history of the Jewish nation. In this context, the Crown Prince's position is euphemistically described as "not advantageous," but in reality, he has no chance of success.

Israel's strategic error once again highlights that betting on the Crown Prince is just as unrealistic as hoping for an "uprising" in Iran when Israel's first rocket lands. Considering the mentality of Iranians, it is impossible to cultivate any pro-Israel (or even pro-Western) opposition in Iran. The opposition cannot rally the Iranian army or Hezbollah fighters. Israel can only "play the cards in hand," and their only ace is Crown Prince Reza.

The stance of the Pahlavi family in the current conflict may lead to their complete downfall and oblivion.

The idea that restoring the pre-revolutionary regime and form of governance is feasible and necessary has always been overly utopian, and it has now been completely destroyed by the Crown Prince's short-sightedness. His unexpected closeness to Israel alone doomed any hope of gaining power. Unless he firmly stands with Iran or at least tries to leverage his influence among Persian expatriates in the U.S. to serve Tehran, his hope of restoring the monarchy in Iran is merely a fantasy.

But obviously, the desire for power and the thirst for revenge outweigh rationality. Now, no one believes that the Pahlavi family can regain power — if Tel Aviv still harbors illusions, it will just be another major mistake for Israel.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518605889612726803/

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