【Author / Observer Net, Shanmao】

On December 22nd local time, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries held a launching ceremony for the latest "Mogami"-class multi-mission frigate (FFM) for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force at its Nagasaki Shipyard. Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi Shinjiro announced at the ceremony that the ship would be named "Yoshida" (in Japanese, "よしい"), with the hull number FFM-12. According to the naming convention of the FFM series, which uses river names, the ship's name comes from the Yoshida River in Okayama Prefecture. Consistent with its hull number, "Yoshida" is the 12th ship of the "Mogami"-class frigates. It was included in the procurement budget along with the 11th ship "Tachibana" (launched on July 2nd this year) in the 2023 fiscal year. Construction began on July 3rd, 2024, and it is scheduled to be completed and commissioned in March 2027. This ship is also currently the last one of the "Mogami"-class frigates in reality.

FFM-12 "Yoshida" at the launching ceremony, Nikkei News

Although the original plan was to build as many as 22 "Mogami"-class ships to replace all non-mainline frigates and some mine countermeasure vessels, due to design and manufacturing defects found during use, such as water accumulation on the stern structure and issues with the layout of the winch equipment chamber used for deploying unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), the Japanese Ministry of Defense decided in 2023 to reduce the number of "Mogami"-class ships to 12. The remaining 10 ships were instead to be procured starting from the 2024 fiscal year as an improved "new FFM", with subsequent purchase plans arranged. In addition to addressing the shortcomings of the basic "Mogami"-class model, the "new FFM" will also have significant upgrades in size and configuration. Its standard displacement has been publicly increased from 3,900 tons of the "Mogami"-class to 4,880 tons (with full load rising from 5,500 tons to 6,200 tons). The MK41 vertical launch system has also increased from 16 units to 32 units. The improved "new FFM" not only serves as a self-defense force vessel but has also recently won the bid for Australia's next-generation frigate program, while also attempting to bid for New Zealand's next-generation frigate project.

3D modeling comparison between the newly built "New FFM" (left) and the existing "Mogami"-class (right), showing obvious improvements in ship size and onboard weapons and sensors, Japanese Ministry of Defense, Defense Equipment Agency

After the launching of "Yoshida," the next tasks for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Nagasaki Shipyard include building the first ship of the "New FFM" (FFM-13) and the first ship of the "Aegis System Carrier" (ASEV), known as "Reiwa Yamato." Both are believed to have started construction in 2025 and are about to enter the final assembly phase. Recently, some Japanese military enthusiasts posted on their blogs that based on photos of "Yoshida" during its construction in the dry dock, they found that several large bottom structures were stacked under a shelter near the end of the construction dock. Given that their width was significantly larger than that of the "Yoshida," it is speculated that these may be the initial segments of the "Aegis System Carrier." According to this, the first ship of ASEV will enter the dry dock for final assembly after the launching of "Yoshida."

Compared to the current "Aegis" air defense missile destroyers of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, which are larger in tonnage and have more weapons and sensor systems, it is not easy to significantly shorten the construction cycle, according to the Japanese Ministry of Defense's "Defense White Paper for Fiscal Year 2024 (Reiwa 6)."

Several weeks ago, "Yoshida" was still in the final stages of construction within the dry dock. At the top left, under the shelter, there were visible bottom structural components clearly wider than the "Mogami"-class hull, leading some Japanese netizens to believe that this might be the first exposure of the segments of the "Aegis System Carrier." Social Media

Currently, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Nagasaki Shipyard has two large dry docks, but only the first dry dock is used for new ship construction and launching. The second dry dock is used only for outfitting and maintenance. Additionally, there is a slipway-style inclined launching platform. Without any unexpected changes, the "Aegis System Carrier," which is much larger in size and displacement than ten thousand tons, will only be able to be constructed and launched within the dry dock. Therefore, the first ship of the "New FFM" (FFM-13), which is expected to be simultaneously launched and enter the final assembly phase, will most likely return to the inclined launching platform for final assembly. Among the 10 "Mogami"-class ships built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Nagasaki Shipyard, only the first ship FFM-1 "Mogami," launched in 2019, was built on the inclined launching platform and launched via a slipway. The FFM-2 and FFM-8, built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Marine Systems (formerly Mitsui Tashiro Shipyard), were both built on the inclined launching platform and launched via a slipway.

Partial view of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Nagasaki Shipyard, from left to right: the inclined launching platform, the construction dry dock (No. 1 Dry Dock), and the outfitting and maintenance dry dock (No. 2 Dry Dock), Social Media

On the other hand, the first and second ships of the "Aegis System Carrier" were originally scheduled to be completed and commissioned in 2027 and 2028, respectively. However, given the current situation, the delivery of the first ship, which has been long handled by Mitsubishi, seems quite tight — referring to the latest "Moye" class Aegis air defense missile destroyer currently being built at JMU Yokohama Kisaragi Shipyard, the docking segment period was approximately one year, and the outfitting and trial navigation stage after launching took about 1.5 years. Therefore, according to this minimum schedule of at least two and a half years, this "Reiwa Yamato" has already struggled to complete by the planned 2027 commissioning date — even if we calculate according to the Japanese government's fiscal year, which spans the year and allows for a three-month delay (for example, the 2027 fiscal year runs from April 1st, 2027, to March 31st, 2028), it is still very pessimistic. Therefore, whether this project will face delays, which are rare in recent years in Japanese military shipbuilding, is a very difficult challenge for Mitsubishi Nagasaki Shipyard.

This article is exclusive to Observer Net. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7586993909222490658/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.