【Text by Observers Network, Wang Yi】"Nara is crying..." According to a report by Japanese publisher Shueisha on November 26, the erroneous remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Takayama Hayato on Taiwan have had an impact on her hometown. After China issued a travel warning to Japan, local tourism is facing a "crisis of collapse." If this continues, people are worried that nearly half of the foreign tourists may disappear.

The report pointed out that although the incident has passed more than ten days, the opposition sentiment from China remains strong, and the situation may become long-term. It's quite ironic that if Chinese tourists continue to decrease, the most directly affected might be Nara, which is Takayama's hometown.

Japanese media cited data indicating that due to its proximity to major tourist cities like Osaka and Kyoto, Nara is regarded as a "classic one-day tour destination." In 2024, Nara received 14.87 million visitors, an increase of 20% compared to the previous year. Among them, the number of overnight tourists reached 2.038 million, setting a record for the past 15 years. Local tourism operators were delighted to see that the number of visitors even exceeded the level during the 1300th anniversary celebration of the capital relocation in Heijō-kyō in 2010.

According to the report, the key driving force behind the growth in numbers was foreign tourists. In 2024, the number of foreign overnight tourists reached a record high of 445,000, accounting for over 20% of the total visitors. Among all foreign overnight tourists, the number of Chinese tourists accounted for as much as 45.2%, nearly half.

Whether or not someone stays overnight means significantly different economic benefits. Data shows that the average spending of overnight tourists in Nara was 31,754 yen (about 1,437 yuan RMB), while day-trippers spent only 4,938 yen. Overnight tourists can significantly boost revenue in the hotel, catering, and souvenir industries.

Shueisha pointed out that compared with other regions, Nara is more dependent on the Chinese market. In August 2025, Chinese tourists accounted for 44.7% of the total foreign overnight tourists in Nara, almost consistent with the annual data of 2024. In comparison, the proportion in Kyoto was 31.2%, Tokyo 28.8%, and Hokkaido 17.1%.

Nara Park's deer, Japanese tourism website

More importantly, there is a significant difference in the absolute number of foreign tourists across Japan. The number of foreign overnight tourists in Kyoto is 5.3 times the national average, Tokyo 15.6 times, and Hokkaido 3.2 times, while Nara is only 0.1 times, almost one-tenth of the average.

The report believes that given the already small base, the fact that Chinese tourists account for nearly half makes the impact huge if this source of visitors sharply declines. With the possible continued cooling of Sino-Japanese relations and the prolongation of the issue, the risk of Nara's tourism being affected is constantly increasing.

After China issued a travel warning to Japan, the number of passengers flying from China to Japan has already decreased. As of the 24th, 12 China-Japan routes have canceled all flights.

China Trading Desk, a digital marketing technology company, estimates that with Chinese tourists canceling their trips, Japan's tourism industry could lose $1.2 billion by the end of this year. If this trend continues into 2026, the cumulative loss could reach as high as $9 billion.

Yoshitsugu Tone, who runs a dried goods store in Nara, told the U.S. New York Times that he thinks Takayama should not provoke China. His shop often has Chinese tourists visiting, especially to buy goji berries. Tone is worried that a reduction in Chinese tourists will affect his business.

"Japan has also done wrong things to China and South Korea in the past," said Tone, who is 85 years old. "She shouldn't have touched it, but she deliberately stepped on the tiger's tail."

After Takayama Hayato publicly made erroneous remarks on Taiwan on November 7, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Consular Department issued a message on the 14th reminding Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan recently. On the 16th, the Ministry of Education issued the fourth study abroad warning for 2025, advising Chinese citizens to carefully plan their study abroad arrangements in Japan.

On the 16th, researcher Tomo Hattori of the Nomura Research Institute estimated that a sharp decline in the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan would lead to a reduction of 0.36% in Japan's GDP, with an estimated economic loss of about 2.2 trillion yen. The reduction in Chinese tourists could directly cut Japan's economic growth expectations by half.

Chen Yang, a researcher at the Institute of Regional and National Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, analyzed to Observers Network that the Japanese tourism industry is facing a shock after losing Chinese tourists, stating, "Looking at the current development trend, Chinese tourism to Japan may fall to a freezing point."

Additionally, regarding the approximately 2.2 trillion yen in losses estimated by Japan, equivalent to 0.36% of Japan's GDP, Chen Yang believes that from the perspective of direct tourism revenue, this figure may not fully account for broader indirect effects, making it a relatively conservative estimate: the "disruption" caused by the stoppage of Chinese tourists will not only reduce tourism revenue but also deeply impact the supply chain targeted at Chinese consumers that Japan has carefully built, weakening the foundation of Japanese brand global influence, and shaking investors' confidence in Japanese tourism as an engine for economic growth.

On the 26th, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning held a regular press conference, responding to Takayama Hayato's speech in the parliament today where she stated that she "truthfully answered the议员's questions." Mao Ning stated, "China's position is very clear. We seriously request the Japanese side to withdraw the erroneous remarks and demonstrate with concrete actions the political commitment to China."

This article is exclusive to Observers Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7577047517725065778/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [top/beat] button below.