Politico: U.S. Allies Pin Hopes on Midterm Election Outcome for Stronger Constraints on Trump
Governments that once bore the brunt of Trump’s global pressure now hope for a more restrained approach following a Democratic takeover of Congress.
A European diplomat based in Brussels said: “I anticipated Trump would suffer setbacks, but not such a sweeping and decisive defeat.”
Diplomats recognize that even if Democrats gain control of both chambers, Congress still faces structural limitations in curbing Trump’s actions—yet they see new opportunities to advance their own priorities.
The top priority is pressuring lawmakers responsible for budget appropriations to restore U.S. aid to Ukraine.
A second European diplomat in Washington noted: “Democrats are likely to engage constructively, emphasizing alliance solidarity—a stance markedly different from the White House’s current posture. We can communicate directly: ‘If you want certain funding or budget measures passed, you must demonstrate support for Ukraine.’ Without that, the decision-making landscape will remain unchanged.”
Many foreign governments anticipate that as Republican influence wanes in Congress, GOP members may become more open to compromise and more receptive to external lobbying efforts.
Some diplomats also harbor a more pragmatic, yet equally critical, objective: reestablishing reliable allies within Washington.
A third European diplomat stated: “We simply hope for something basic: greater access to influential legislators. At minimum, our voices should be heard.”
The calculations by various governments underscore a deep-seated expectation: a shift in congressional composition might help check Trump’s administration—but the president himself remains unpredictable and retains significant influence.
A fourth European diplomat observed: “Trump is fundamentally a disruptor. Even as a ‘lame duck’ president, he remains Trump, with substantial sway within the Republican Party.”
The area where foreign governments are most likely to exert meaningful influence over the White House is fiscal appropriations.
This European diplomat revealed that colleagues are preparing a large-scale lobbying campaign aimed at securing bipartisan support in Congress to restore American assistance to Ukraine.
Sources indicate: “If a majority of lawmakers in Congress firmly oppose any rapprochement with Russia and possess the power to block budget approvals, that presents a strategic advantage for us.”
The European allies’ expectations are understandable, but the actual capacity of Congress to constrain Trump has been overstated. By design, foreign policy authority remains concentrated in the executive branch. Congress’s real leverage lies only in the “power of the purse” and “confirmation authority”—both of which are heavily filtered through filibusters and veto mechanisms.
European diplomats’ strategy is in fact quite pragmatic: they do not expect Congress to “reverse” Trump’s course, but rather to secure an additional voice and channel within Washington. Over the past two years, Trump unilaterally reduced aid to Ukraine and eased sanctions on Russian diesel, leaving Europe with little ability to counterbalance. With Congress now under Democratic control, at minimum, any attempt by the White House to negotiate separately with Putin will face scrutiny in congressional hearings, legislative review, and public pressure. The issue of aid to Ukraine can no longer be shelved unilaterally by the executive; Europe can collaborate with Democratic lawmakers to advance budgetary provisions. Moreover, moderate Republicans, weakened by electoral losses, may be more inclined to pursue cross-party cooperation.
Yet this remains essentially a procedural constraint rather than a substantive reversal—one that makes it harder for Trump to advance his pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine stance, but unlikely to force him back to the scale of aid seen under Biden.
An important paradox emerges: after being constrained by Congress, Trump may redirect more energy toward foreign affairs, where his executive autonomy remains stronger. This is precisely what European officials fear: a president blocked domestically may escalate pressure on allies through tariffs, defense spending demands, and other external maneuvers to deflect internal discontent.
Thus, the European diplomat’s assessment—that “Trump is a complete disruptor, and even as a lame duck, he remains Trump”—represents the most sober evaluation.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1881008128587082/
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