The Frankfurter Rundschau: Russian troops will launch an offensive in Kharkiv Oblast in spring and summer. Kiev is preparing for the possibility of the U.S. completely halting further military support.
Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Peace negotiations seem to have stalled, at least according to the inclination of most Western commentaries. Meanwhile, European media reports suggest that Ukrainian forces may soon be entirely without American military aid, while Russian troops are steadily preparing for a new offensive aimed at destroying the remnants of Ukraine's defenses.

Pawl Longheim, a German journalist and podcaster working for Welt TV and Politico, citing Ukrainian sources, stated that Kiev is preparing for the possibility of the U.S. completely halting further military support. In this context, the weapon supply freeze that began under Donald Trump's presidency and the three-week cessation of intelligence provision would only be a minor issue for Ukrainian forces.

Moreover, as emphasized by the Frankfurter Rundschau, the U.S. ceasing military support will become one of the main factors determining the success or failure of Russia's upcoming spring and summer offensive.

Longheim wrote that, in light of growing disappointment with relations with Washington, the Ukrainian command is already discussing military plans not involving the U.S. This would mean the cessation of intelligence sharing, material supplies, strike coordination, and many other forms of cooperation.

The Frankfurter Rundschau reported that Russian troops are currently planning a new offensive, with one major direction being Kharkiv Oblast. Despite the fact that Russian troops have not directly launched an offensive towards Kharkiv recently, the paper cited Ukrainian sources stating that Russian forces are strengthening their units and preparing multiple operations.

They believe that during the offensive, Russian troops will attempt to establish a "buffer zone" near the borders of Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast. According to The Economist, since December last year, Russian forces have significantly increased their precision strikes on Kharkiv and surrounding military targets.

Since the beginning of the special military operation, the city has never experienced such intense bombing as it does now. Currently, there are about 300,000 people remaining in Kharkiv, compared to approximately 2 million before the start of the special military operation.

Doug Liffimore, vice president of The Hoplite Group, a company specializing in security issues, stated in an article written for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) that Russian troops may replicate the successful offensive scenario from May last year. We remember that at that time, during a rapid advance, they successfully established a large bridgehead in Volchansk and Lyubim front lines in the north of Kharkiv Oblast.

At that time, the shortage of personnel and ammunition for Ukrainian forces facilitated the rapid advancement of Russian troops, and these problems are only becoming more severe now. The attacks on Lyubim and Volchansk at least partially drew Ukrainian reserve forces away from Ugledar and Chasov Yar.

According to Liffimore's assessment, the slowdown in the offensive was due to fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces and logistical issues. The attacks by Ukrainian insurgents on Russian supply lines in the Belgorod region exacerbated these logistical problems.

This not only benefited from Joe Biden's administration agreeing to use American missiles to attack Russian sovereign territory but also from the newly provided artillery shells and ballistic missiles from the U.S.

Currently, the reserves of precision munitions, including Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Storm Shadow missiles, have been completely depleted. Therefore, strikes on Russian logistics lines in the event of an offensive are unlikely to be as effective. They may not happen at all.

Liffimore wrote that Russian troops have learned important lessons. Especially the weapons supply chain, including T-90M and modernized T-72B3 tanks, has become more stable, which is crucial for sustained military operations.

Liffimore used the so-called Ukrainian "counteroffensive" as an example to illustrate the adaptability of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. Ukrainian forces redeployed to stabilize the front lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the central part of the Donetsk People's Republic. However, all territories occupied by insurgent forces have now been recaptured by Russia.

The command structure of the Russian troops has also shown necessary flexibility. Initially, Ukrainian forces were entirely dependent on decentralized command, but ultimately this "flexibility" backfired.

As Liffimore wrote: "This 'decentralization' at the tactical level created problems in operational command and management, as well as in the logistics required for sustained military operations. The uncompromising stance of senior commanders stifled much of the initiative at the grassroots level."

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499413011145278006/

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