"Tariff uncertainties are causing significant disruptions to U.S. shipping trade." The U.S. financial information website "Guru Focus News" reported on the 13th that after the U.S. government recently announced tariff hikes, U.S. maritime trade is suffering from a "tariff shockwave." Data shows that container bookings destined for the U.S. surged in the first quarter, but now show signs of "collapse." A "booking freeze" phenomenon for U.S. import containers is widespread. Given that other U.S. trading partners' tariff measures are currently under a 90-day suspension period, shipping companies will face highly unpredictable trade conditions for the remainder of 2025.

In the coming weeks, "shipping companies will significantly cancel sailings."

In recent weeks, global enterprises have rushed to ship goods to the U.S. before the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs take effect, as announced by Trump, to avoid skyrocketing costs. Despite the White House's announcement of a 90-day deferral on tariff increases for its trading partners, this market upheaval has thoroughly disrupted international trade order. Data shows that after this peak, U.S. trade flows will experience a cliff-like decline. According to a report on the Norwegian "Trade Winds" weekly website on the 9th, trade data platform Vizion's data shows that due to tariff uncertainties, container bookings destined for the U.S. fell by a significant 67% compared to the previous week over the past seven days, and container bookings departing from the U.S. decreased by 40%. Due to concerns about further declines in cargo volume and freight rates, liner companies continue to reduce capacity on routes to the U.S.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Danish container shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, wrote on social media platforms: "If these figures are close to reality, it will be a major disruption to current trade flows." He stated that shipping companies are likely to "significantly reduce service frequencies" in the coming weeks. The impact is already apparent: Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced that the container alliance "Premier Alliance," consisting of three shipping companies, has suspended the launch of services from Asia to the U.S. West Coast; meanwhile, the trans-Pacific PN4 service originally scheduled to begin in May will remain suspended, with no restart date set yet.

Philip Damas, head of supply chain consulting at British Drewry Shipping Consultants, told the "Procurement Journal" that "U.S. importers have already loaded large amounts of goods before the tariffs take effect, and now they will slow down or even suspend shipments while discussing countermeasures and who will bear the additional costs." Recently, the UK's The Loadstar logistics news website reported that the tariff war has led several Asian exporters to cancel container bookings because U.S. goods recipients are now worried about having to pay higher prices for the goods. Analysts said, "Shippers are waiting for the dust to settle and the results of the 'reciprocal tariffs' negotiations."

Short-term freight rate fluctuations and port congestion

When U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from most countries during his first term, a container ship carrying goods from British advanced materials manufacturer Goodfellow to U.S. customers was crossing the Atlantic, instantly increasing the cost of the goods by £100,000. In recent weeks, similar scenarios have played out globally. Swiss chocolate maker Lindt moved additional inventory from U.S. factories to Canada to avoid Canadian retaliatory tariffs.

From automotive parts to chocolate, manufacturers are accelerating transfers or rerouting, leading to a sharp rise in short-term ocean freight contracts and airfreight prices. Data from shipping analytics firm Xeneta shows: On April 1st, the average spot freight rate for a 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) from China to the U.S. East Coast jumped 9%, while the rate for the U.S. West Coast surged by 16%.

The UK's "Guardian" newspaper reports that in the short term, spot freight rates will continue to fluctuate, and ports are preparing for congestion. However, in the long term, analysts predict that demand for trade between the two largest economies will shrink. Steel, aluminum, and automotive tariffs do not enjoy a 90-day grace period, and Jaguar Land Rover, Audi, and other carmakers have suspended new vehicle deliveries to the U.S. The piles of vehicles at the Bremerhaven Port in Germany (which handles 1.5 million vehicles annually) illustrate the ripple effects.

Greek shipping news recently reported that as retaliatory tariffs gradually come into effect, their impact on U.S. exports may be greater than imports, putting further pressure on the shipping market. At the same time, global trade flows may become more regionalized, disrupting existing routes and reducing demand for major routes.

Some U.S. ports have issued warnings of falling import volumes. According to a report by Bloomberg on the 9th, Mario Cordero, CEO of one of the largest ports in California, the Port of Long Beach, warned that if current trade uncertainties intensify, freight volumes at the Port of Long Beach could plummet by 20% in the second half of 2025. On the 11th, the "U.S. Transport Magazine" website reported that due to declining import and export volumes caused by tariff increases, the Port of Los Angeles expects throughput to fall by 10% starting in May. Eugene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles authority, said the port expects 12 canceled or blank sailings in May. "Buckle up, this will be very bumpy for us," he said.

"A mid-term strategy must necessarily involve reducing reliance on the U.S. market."

The Indian Shipping News Network reported on the 12th that Trump's new tariffs will trigger various chain reactions across the entire shipping industry. Bruce Chen, an analyst at Stifel, a U.S. wealth management and investment banking company, said, "Since nearly all trans-Pacific trade is transported by sea, ocean container transportation will be most directly affected." He emphasized that tariffs dampen freight demand and actually increase costs for shippers, which are typically passed on to end consumers over time.

The "Guardian" reported that the implementation of tariffs coincides with the critical period of annual long-term contract negotiations for U.S. importers (traditionally signed in March-April and taking effect on May 1st). Simon Sundboell, chief analyst at Xeneta, said, "Many companies are delaying signing contracts and instead relying on the spot market to avoid being locked into loss-making route contracts." Giorgio Fagioli, general secretary of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade in the UK, said that companies are "trying to understand how to manage risks in their supply chains," and "a mid-term strategy must necessarily involve reducing reliance on the U.S. market and exploring other markets—massive trade shifts will occur."

It is still too early to measure the final impact of tariffs on the shipping industry. Freight intelligence and data analytics website "FreightWaves" said that although data indicates that tariffs have had a significant impact on container booking volumes, the resulting chain reactions may ripple through the entire global supply chain. Shipping companies may need to adjust capacity and route strategies, and business for ports and logistics providers may also decrease. However, importers are actively coping with rising costs and potential supply disruptions, and the impact on U.S. consumer prices and product availability remains to be observed.

Source: Global Times

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493723871154160164/

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