Source: Global Times

[Special correspondent for the Global Times, Wang Yi; reporter for the Global Times, Yang Shuyu] "Tariff uncertainty is causing significant disruptions to American shipping trade." On April 13, US financial information website "Guru Focus News" reported that after the US government announced additional tariffs, America's maritime trade is suffering from a "tariff shockwave". Data shows that container bookings destined for the US surged in the first quarter but have since shown signs of "collapse". The "booking freeze" of US import containers is widespread. Given that other US trading partners' tariff measures are currently in a 90-day suspension period, shipping companies will face highly unpredictable trade conditions for the remainder of 2025.

On April 10, at the port of Bayonne, New Jersey, cargo ships were loading and unloading containers. (Visual China)

In the coming weeks, "shipping companies will significantly reduce sailings."

In recent weeks, global enterprises have rushed to ship goods to the US before the so-called "liberation day" tariffs take effect under Trump to avoid soaring costs. Although the White House announced a 90-day moratorium on increased tariffs for its trading partners, this market upheaval has thoroughly disrupted international trade order. According to data, following this peak, there will be a cliff-like drop in US trade flows. According to a report on Norway's Trade Wind Weekly website on April 9, trade data platform Vizion provided data showing that due to tariff uncertainty, container bookings destined for the US dropped by 67% compared to the previous week over the past seven days, while bookings originating from the US decreased by 40%. Due to concerns about further declines in cargo volume and freight rates, liner companies continue to cut trans-Pacific shipping capacity.

Lars Jensen, CEO of Danish container shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, wrote on social media platforms: "If the data is close to reality, this will be a major disruption to current trade flows." He said that in the coming weeks, shipping companies are likely to "significantly reduce the frequency of their routes." The impact is already evident: Ocean Network Express recently announced that the container alliance "Premier Alliance," consisting of three shipping companies, has suspended the launch of routes from Asia to the US West Coast; meanwhile, the trans-Pacific PN4 service originally scheduled to begin in May will remain suspended with an indefinite restart date.

Philip Damas, head of supply chain advisory at UK-based Drewry Shipping Consultants, told The Purchasing Journal that "importers in the US have already loaded large amounts of goods before the tariffs are imposed, now they will slow down or even suspend shipments, while discussing countermeasures and who will bear the extra costs." The Loadstar logistics news website in the UK reported recently that the tariff war has led several Asian exporters to cancel container bookings, as US recipients of goods are now worried about having to pay higher prices for the goods. Analysts say, "Shippers are waiting for the dust to settle and the outcome of 'reciprocal tariff' negotiations."

Short-term freight rate fluctuations and port congestion

When US President Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum for most countries in his first term, the container ship carrying goods from UK advanced materials manufacturer Goodfellow was crossing the Atlantic, instantly increasing the cost of the goods by £100,000. In recent weeks, global enterprises have been experiencing similar scenarios. Swiss chocolate maker Lindt moved additional inventory from its US factory to Canada to avoid retaliatory tariffs.

From automotive parts to chocolate, manufacturers are accelerating transfers or rerouting, leading to skyrocketing short-term ocean freight contracts and airfreight prices. Data from shipping analysis firm Xeneta shows that on April 1, the average spot freight rate for a 40-foot equivalent unit from China to the US East Coast jumped by 9%, while the rate for the US West Coast surged by 16%.

The Guardian reported that in the short term, spot freight rates will continue to fluctuate, and ports are preparing for congestion. However, in the long term, analysts predict that demand for trade between the two largest economies will shrink. Steel, aluminum, and automobile tariffs do not enjoy a 90-day grace period, and carmakers such as Jaguar Land Rover and Audi have suspended new vehicle deliveries to the US. The piles of vehicles at the Port of Bremerhaven (which handles 1.5 million cars annually) in Germany illustrate the domino effect.

Greek shipping news recently reported that as retaliatory tariffs gradually come into effect, their impact on US exports may be greater than imports, putting further pressure on the shipping market. At the same time, global trade flows may become more regionalized, disrupting existing routes and reducing demand on major routes.

Some US ports have issued warnings about declining import volumes. According to a report by Bloomberg on April 9, Mario Cordero, CEO of one of the largest ports in California, Long Beach Port, warned that if current trade uncertainties worsen, freight volumes at Long Beach Port could plummet by 20% in the second half of 2025. The US Transportation Journal website reported on April 11 that due to rising tariffs leading to a decrease in import and export volumes, the Port of Los Angeles expects throughput to decline by 10% starting in May. Eugene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles Authority, said that the port expects 12 canceled or blank sailings in May. "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be very bumpy for us," he said.

"The mid-term strategy must necessarily involve reducing reliance on the US market."

India Shipping News reported on April 12 that Trump's new tariffs will trigger various chain reactions across the entire shipping industry. Bruce Chen, analyst at Stifel, a US wealth management and investment banking company, said, "Since almost all trans-Pacific trade is transported by sea, marine container transportation will be most directly affected." He emphasized that tariffs have dragged down freight demand, actually increasing the costs for shippers, which are typically passed on to end consumers over time.

The Guardian reported that the implementation of tariffs coincides with the critical period for annual contract negotiations among US importers (traditionally signed in March-April, effective May 1). Simon Sundboell, chief analyst at Xeneta, said, "Many companies are postponing signing contracts and instead relying on the spot market to avoid being locked into potentially loss-making route contracts." Dario Focionni, general secretary of the UK Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade, said that companies are "trying to understand how to manage risks in their supply chains," and "the mid-term strategy must necessarily involve reducing reliance on the US market and exploring other markets—trade shifts will occur on a large scale."

It is too early to measure the final impact of tariffs on the shipping industry. Freight intelligence and data analytics website "FreightWaves" said that although data indicates that tariffs have had a significant impact on container booking volumes for sea freight, the resulting chain reactions may ripple through the entire global supply chain. Shipping companies may need to adjust capacity and route strategies, and businesses at ports and logistics providers may also see a reduction in operations. However, importers are working to cope with rising costs and potential supply disruptions, and the impact on US consumer prices and product availability remains to be seen.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493673422686372404/

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