Philippines, which has been relatively quiet recently, has made a new move, staging a geopolitical "double act." On one hand, it has introduced a new policy to show rare friendliness towards China, while on the other hand, it has conspired with Japan to plan big strategies, preparing for a fight.

Philippine Airport

Recently, the Philippine Foreign Ministry officially announced that starting from January 16, 2026, the Philippines will implement a visa exemption policy for Chinese citizens, allowing them to stay in the country for up to 14 days. This policy will last for one year and will be reassessed after that. The Philippine Foreign Ministry admitted that this move is aimed at promoting cultural and trade exchanges between China and the Philippines.

The relationship between China and the Philippines has been unclear in recent years due to conflicts in the South China Sea. This unilateral visa exemption by the Philippines can be seen as a rare gesture of friendliness towards China. However, it is evident to everyone that the core demand of the Philippines' visa exemption for China is a "lifeline" in its economic difficulties, and the so-called "détente" is only an incidental effect.

In recent years, the economic growth of the Philippines has remained weak, and the downturn in tourism has further worsened the situation. Among these, the absence of Chinese tourists is a key shortcoming. The core purpose of the Philippines' move is to attract Chinese tourists and boost consumption, injecting vitality into the depressed economy. However, it should be clear that this does not mean a cooling down of the South China Sea dispute.

Mitsuru Takahashi and Lazaro

On the same day the Philippines announced the visa exemption, the Philippine Foreign Minister met with Japanese Foreign Minister Mitsuru Takahashi in Manila and signed an important agreement called the "Agreement on the Mutual Provision of Supplies and Services," abbreviated as ACSA. The agreement stipulates that the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Philippine military can provide each other with key supplies such as fuel, ammunition, and food during joint training and military operations, and even share services such as transportation and maintenance.

It is worth noting that during the signing of the agreement, both sides specifically mentioned China, claiming that this move is aimed at maintaining peace in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. As is well known, China and the Philippines have ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, and China and Japan have not only conflicts in the East China Sea but also deteriorated relations due to the provocative remarks of Takahashi Hayato recently.

Macapagal

Japan and the Philippines signing the agreement at this critical moment clearly targets China. More importantly, this agreement is not simply a "mutual assistance," its core value lies in establishing a logistics chain link between the two countries' armed forces, building a military logistics alliance against China, and deepening the confrontation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

For military operations, logistics is the lifeline. If a conflict erupts in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, the side with nearby logistics support can significantly enhance its ability to sustain combat operations. Japan and the Philippines' move is equivalent to installing a "power extension engine" for their military coordination. Put plainly, if a conflict arises with China, Japan and the Philippines will quickly unite and act together.

From a regional perspective, the signing of the Japan-Philippines ACSA agreement will only make the situation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea more complex. After the agreement takes effect, the mechanism and practicality of the U.S.-Japan-Philippines joint patrols and exercises will become more institutionalized and realistic. The South China Sea may evolve from a disputed sea area between sovereignty claimants into a battlefield for great power military competition, and any accidental incident could trigger a chain reaction.

Takahashi Hayato and Macapagal

The Philippines' "double game" stems from the dual demands of the Marcos government: "consolidating power domestically and seeking benefits internationally." Domestically, Marcos needs to use a tough stance on the South China Sea issue to win over nationalist sentiment, shift pressure from domestic economic stagnation and corruption controversies, and consolidate his ruling base. Internationally, the Philippines tries to play the role of a "middleman among major powers," seeking aid and support from the United States and Japan, while also gaining economic benefits through gestures of friendliness towards China, maximizing its own gains.

For China, the Philippines' dual strategy does not need to be overinterpreted, but it must remain highly vigilant. The升温 of people-to-people exchanges brought by the visa exemption policy is a positive aspect of Sino-Philippine relations. China has always been willing to develop bilateral relations on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, but this does not mean that China will compromise on its core interests.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7595821187591078452/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.