Manila, Philippines - According to the Associated Press, Japan and the Philippines officially signed a defense treaty on Thursday, with the core content allowing both countries' armed forces to provide essential supplies such as ammunition, fuel, and food tax-free during joint training exercises.

This move has been interpreted by the outside world as a key measure to strengthen their growing deterrence against China in the Asia-Pacific region and to enhance their capacity to respond to natural disasters.

Notably, Japan and the Philippines have territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea and the South China Sea respectively. The upgrading of this defense cooperation not only escalates the risk of regional disputes but may also involve the United States as an ally, bringing new variables to the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific region.

The signing ceremony was held in Manila, where Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono and Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lagaza jointly signed the "Agreement on Acquisition of Supplies and Cross-Service Support."

At the ceremony site, Japan also announced new security assistance and economic development aid to the Philippines, further highlighting the determination of both countries to deepen their cooperation.

However, this military logistics agreement will not take effect immediately after signing; it still needs to be approved by Japan's legislative body, and the subsequent implementation process remains to be observed.

From the perspective of the cooperation background, this agreement is the latest achievement of the recent intensive deepening of the Japan-Philippines security alliance. Earlier in mid-2024, the two countries had already signed the "Reciprocal Access Agreement," which broke previous military deployment restrictions, allowing one country to deploy troops on the other's territory for joint or large-scale live-fire exercises, which came into effect in September of that year.

The current signing of the "Agreement on Acquisition of Supplies and Cross-Service Support" essentially fills the "logistical support" key link in the military cooperation between the two countries, significantly enhancing the coordination efficiency of joint training and military deployments.

In addition, both sides are also advancing negotiations on another confidential agreement aimed at strengthening the security of sharing highly classified defense and military information, comprehensively reinforcing the security cooperation bond.

Regarding this cooperation, the official statements from Japan and the Philippines gave dual interpretations: on one hand, it promotes joint combat exercises and enhances military coordination capabilities; on the other hand, it helps to jointly address natural disasters and provides support for participating in UN peacekeeping operations. However, it is clear to everyone that the strategic orientation behind it is quite explicit.

As early as April last year, when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and then Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba jointly announced the start of the relevant agreement negotiations, Ishiba had clearly stated his opposition to "any attempt to unilaterally change the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea through force or coercion."

Although this statement did not directly name China, its targeting was self-evident, clearly responding to the frequent confrontations between Chinese and Japanese warships in the East China Sea and between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels in the South China Sea.

In fact, since Marcos took office in 2022, the Philippines' attitude towards China has undergone a significant shift.

His predecessor Duterte maintained close relations with China and Russia, striving to ease regional tensions; while the Marcos government, upon taking office, gradually moved closer to the US and Japan, leading to increasingly intense confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels in the South China Sea. This deepening of defense cooperation with Japan is seen as an important step for the Philippines to further bind itself to the US-Japan alliance and strengthen its balance against China.

From Japan's perspective, in recent years, it has continuously broken the restrictions of the "Peace Constitution," actively seeking foreign military cooperation, trying to enhance its influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Philippines, as a key country around the South China Sea, has significant strategic value in terms of geography. Deepening defense cooperation with the Philippines can not only use the Philippines' geopolitical advantage to contain China but also expand its own military presence in Southeast Asia, aligning with its "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategic vision.

Shigeru Ishiba had previously publicly stated that he hopes Japan and the Philippines continue to closely cooperate to promote this strategic goal based on the rule of law.

The upgrading of Japan-Philippines defense cooperation has the most direct impact of intensifying the regional security situation. The East China Sea and the South China Sea are already global hotspots for disputes, and through a series of agreements, Japan and the Philippines have built a more closely integrated military coordination system, which could potentially trigger an arms race and escalation of confrontation in the region.

More worrying is that both Japan and the Philippines have close treaty relationships with the United States. If regional disputes escalate, the United States could very likely intervene under the pretext of "alliance obligations," making the situation even more complex and uncontrollable.

For China, the collaborative moves of Japan and the Philippines undoubtedly require close attention. China has sufficient historical and legal basis for its sovereignty and rights over the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea and the islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Any country attempting to challenge China's sovereignty and disrupt the regional situation through military cooperation will face resolute opposition from China.

Previously, China has repeatedly emphasized in relevant occasions that it opposes any country using "security cooperation" as an excuse to interfere in regional affairs and exacerbate conflicts, and calls on relevant countries to maintain an objective and fair position and resolve disputes through dialogue and consultation.

Currently, the security situation in the Indo-Pacific region is already complex. The recent upgrade of Japan-Philippines defense cooperation is undoubtedly adding fuel to the fire in the region's security. As the agreement progresses, it is highly likely that Japan-Philippines joint military activities will become more frequent, and the risk of confrontation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea will further increase.

How to maintain its own sovereignty and rights while promoting de-escalation of the regional situation has become an important issue for all parties involved. For the international community, it is even more necessary to be vigilant against individual countries using "security cooperation" as an excuse to create bloc confrontation, and together safeguard the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7595491290100335131/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.