[By Guancha Observer Network, Liu Chenghui]
"There are already signs that Trump's coalition is disintegrating, and this is not only related to Elon Musk."
The public attention on the "breakup" between U.S. President Trump and billionaire Musk has been widespread. Nate Cohn, chief political analyst of The New York Times, wrote in an article on June 7th that the conflict between the two is not just personal, but also reflects the fragility of their coalition. Under the impact of issues such as tariffs, immigration restrictions, and university policies, divisions within Trump's coalition have become increasingly evident, with some originally supportive groups beginning to question his policies.
What is more noteworthy is that America's severe fiscal deficit problem is becoming a new political challenge for Trump, and the political consequences it may bring in the future must not be underestimated. The traditional conservatives and populists within the Republican Party find it difficult to reconcile on this issue, which may weaken party unity and even shake the existing political alliance structure.
On May 30th, in the Oval Office of the White House, Musk and U.S. President Trump attended a press conference. Visual China
"A large number of supporters are increasingly uneasy about Trump's agenda."
In his article, Cohn wrote that, as expected, the split between Trump and Musk was full of personal grudges and trivial disputes, but this was far from just a conflict between two powerful and emotional figures.
This signal indicates that Trump finds it increasingly difficult to maintain the unity of his populist conservative coalition.
At the beginning of the year, Trump's coalition seemed less fragile. At least since Reagan's era, he appeared able to promote conservative agendas and gain broad public support. By imposing tariffs on China, expelling illegal immigrants, increasing oil production, cutting spending, and combating the "Awakened Left," he could stabilize his political position.
However, now, whether due to the limitations of his ability to mediate among various factions, the overly radical nature of his policies, or the challenges posed by the rising national debt, it is no longer as easy for Trump to maintain this "gang."
In Cohn's view, compared to when he was first elected president in 2016, Trump now relies on a broader political coalition: on the basis of the original white working-class populists and Republican stalwarts, he has attracted millions of young people and non-white voters, while also attracting many anti-"Awakening" and anti-establishment elites who were previously Democratic supporters.
These new supporters are very different from the voters in 2016. They are neither traditional Republicans nor conservative populists attracted by trade and immigration issues. What they care about are issues that were not prominent in 2016, such as aversion to the "Awakening" left, questioning of epidemic prevention policies, inflation, worsening public security, increasing homelessness, and the influx of immigrants. Joe Rogan, Robert Kennedy Jr., and Musk are all reflections of the diversity of Trump's expanded coalition.
Cohn noticed that during last year's election campaign, strong hostility toward the Democratic agenda had united various factions under Trump, with expectations that he would balance their demands upon taking office.
But cracks have already appeared in less than five months into Trump's second term. Polls show that many young and non-white supporters have turned negative in their evaluations of Trump. Although there haven't been many examples of elite defections, they clearly show unease about the radicalism of Trump's policies. His extensive tariffs, contempt for the judicial system, policies targeting high-tech immigrants and higher education far exceed the expectations of many former supporters.
Musk's defection may partly involve personal grievances, but Trump's inability to retain this key ally partially reflects his incompetence in coordinating ideological pluralistic factions. Musk's strongest criticism is that the Republican tax cut plan will exacerbate the debt crisis; however, policies like cracking down on international students and reducing renewable energy subsidies could also be triggers. Even policies like deporting immigrants and tariffs have not affected Musk but are enough to undermine support from other members of the coalition.
Cohn also mentioned the fiscal deficit problem.
He stated that over the past decade or so, deficits have not been a major issue in American politics. However, this situation is rapidly changing.
In recent years, America's fiscal situation has significantly worsened. It is expected that within ten years, U.S. government debt will exceed 100% of GDP. Currently, interest payments on the debt have reached nearly one-fifth of federal revenue. In the foreseeable future, even during periods of low unemployment and economic growth, the U.S. is expected to face trillion-dollar deficits. High interest rates will make the financing costs of new debt extraordinarily expensive.
Meanwhile, the deteriorating fiscal situation has begun to affect politics, most notably in the challenges faced by large tax and spending bills. In the past, Republicans found it easy to push through tax cuts. Now, due to high deficits and interest rates, a nearly $3 trillion increase in debt over the next decade suddenly becomes unbearable for everyone.
"The political consequences of the 'Big and Beautiful' bill must not be underestimated."
Last month, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and whether it can pass in the Senate remains uncertain. This is a massive expenditure bill aimed at extending corporate and individual tax cuts passed during Trump's first term in 2017, providing new tax breaks for tips, car loans, and other areas, while increasing defense spending and providing more funds to combat illegal immigration.
The bill will also repeal several green energy incentive policies pushed by former Democratic President Biden and raise the thresholds for eligibility for Medicaid and food assistance programs to cut some federal spending.
On June 6th, at the U.S. Capitol, U.S. House Minority Leader and Democrat Hakeem Jeffries spoke to reporters about the "Big and Beautiful" bill. Visual China
Cohn wrote that the political consequences of this issue in the future must not be underestimated.
In the past, the alliance between traditional conservatives and populists could exist because Trump promised both tax cuts and the maintenance of popular welfare projects like social security. But as debt pressure increases, this "win-win situation" will be difficult to sustain.
On the other hand, Democrats will also face challenges from fiscal issues. Over the past decade, although there were fierce struggles between progressive and moderate factions within the Democratic Party, deficits provided a certain degree of relief for internal conflicts. Mainstream Democrats could reconcile different factions by promoting infrastructure construction, investment in renewable energy, and expanding social welfare programs such as universal preschool education and paid family leave. However, now, debt problems may have a greater impact on the Democratic Party than on the Republicans.
The article concluded that in the 1990s, when federal interest payments accounted for a similar level, this prompted the Reagan coalition to collapse and drove the rise of billionaire Ross Perot. If national debt becomes a "survival issue" for voters in the coming years, the current political landscape may be completely rewritten.
"What will happen next, who will win?" For the internal shifts in the Trump administration, an article on Al Jazeera on June 6th described it this way: the old saying in politics goes, there are no eternal enemies and no eternal allies, only eternal interests. Trump seems to be exactly like this, with a history of firing advisors and severing ties with former friends. Musk is just one of the most recent high-profile breakups, and political observers may not be surprised by this.
Trump has clearly shown a willingness to use government power against rivals, and recently he ordered an investigation into the Biden administration. He has warned about the risks facing Musk's companies, including SpaceX and "Starlink."
On the other hand, Musk may ally with fiscal conservatives in Congress to block the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the Senate. This will undoubtedly further exacerbate the division within the Republican camp.
"Wall Street sounds the alarm on U.S. debt, and this time it cannot be ignored." Unsurprisingly, The Wall Street Journal published an article on June 4th warning about the high level of U.S. debt.
The Wall Street Journal believes that the "Big and Beautiful" bill is the direct trigger for the public split between the two. Musk is most dissatisfied with how the bill further expands the federal deficit, increasing the burden of U.S. debt. Musk hopes to support those critics in Congress who have expressed similar objections, forcing significant revisions to the bill. The Senate is currently reviewing the bill and plans to make modifications. Trump hopes to sign the legislation before July 4th.
According to calculations by the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, compared to current expectations, the bill may increase the debt level by approximately $3 trillion over the next ten years; if certain temporary provisions are made permanent, the debt level will increase by $5 trillion.
Peter Orszag, CEO of investment bank Lazard and former White House budget director, wrote last week that when he held government positions, those worried about out-of-control deficits and unsustainable debt "seemed to be crying wolf."
But now, he also admits that "the wolf is lurking at our doorstep."
What is even more alarming is that, looking at the current fiscal year, federal government expenditures on interest payments alone will exceed the defense budget and also surpass the total of Medicaid, disability insurance, and food stamp social welfare expenditures.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently said that the U.S. has about three years left to avoid a crisis akin to "economic heart disease." Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned last Friday: "There will be problems in the bond market, understand?"
This article is an exclusive contribution from Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513473541937906226/
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