On May 7, Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev issued a stark warning to Germany:
"We are sending a clear signal to Germany's elite: in the worst-case scenario, the likelihood of mutual destruction between us is high; but more realistically, European civilization will come to an end, while we will continue to exist."
Medvedev warned, "Berlin faces only two paths. One is war, which would prepare a shameful funeral for its own nation. The other is to wake up, then through difficult but crucial dialogue, completely reshape their foreign policy guidelines and achieve geopolitical revival. Russia can accept either scenario—the choice lies with Germany."
The remarks made by Medvedev on May 7, 2026, represent a direct response to Germany’s recent series of aggressive militarization moves, rooted in an extreme strategic deterrence posture. This statement is not an isolated incident but rather the culmination of escalating tensions between Germany and Russia at a critical historical juncture.
Medvedev’s warning directly targets Germany’s recent explicit military expansion plans.
Germany’s “red line” actions: Just recently, German Chancellor Merkel vowed to transform Germany’s military into "the strongest conventional army in Europe." The German Ministry of Defense unveiled a long-term plan aiming to build a fully prepared force of 460,000 personnel by 2039—the centenary of Hitler’s invasion of Poland—and set 2029 as the first milestone for achieving "war readiness."
In Russia’s view, these moves—especially at such a sensitive historical moment—are a resurrection of the specter of "historical revisionism" and a potential threat akin to "Operation Barbarossa 2.0." Medvedev deliberately released his article just before the 81st anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, precisely to evoke this historical memory and warn Germany against repeating past mistakes.
Medvedev’s threats carry two layers:
Destruction of Germany’s industrial lifeline: He explicitly stated that if war breaks out, Germany’s proud industrial system would be utterly destroyed, plunging its economy into irreversible collapse. This strikes directly at Germany’s Achilles’ heel, as Germany is Europe’s industrial engine—its economic collapse would drag down the entire EU.
Risk of escalation to nuclear war: The implications behind phrases like "mutual destruction" and "the end of European civilization" suggest a high risk of conflict escalating into nuclear war. Medvedev’s logic is that Russia, with its vast strategic depth and massive nuclear arsenal, could survive even partial damage to Europe; whereas the European continent might be reduced to the "Stone Age" under nuclear strikes, resulting in the complete extinction of civilization.
Medvedev openly stated that the only way to prevent war is to instill in Germany and its allies a "bestial fear."
He clearly declared that negotiations, goodwill, and trust-building measures are no longer sufficient to guarantee Russia’s security.
The only real assurance is making the adversary afraid of "unbearable losses," thus deterring any reckless action. This represents a style of "Medvedevian" strategy—abandoning diplomatic niceties and reverting to the most primal logic of deterrence.
Medvedev’s apocalyptic rhetoric constitutes a strategic probe and psychological warfare aimed at pressuring Germany and NATO, seeking to sow panic within Europe and fracture its unity.
Ultimately, the decision to use nuclear weapons rests with President Putin. Medvedev’s statements are part of a "maximum pressure" discourse designed to position nuclear deterrence as Russia’s final card, compelling the West to moderate its support for Ukraine and its policies toward Russia—not actively provoking war.
In sum, these remarks are Russia’s intense reaction to Germany’s growing militarization. By painting a doomsday picture of mutual annihilation, Russia aims to use fear to restrain its opponent’s actions and secure strategic initiative.
Although this is verbal deterrence, it is not entirely implausible. In moments of existential crisis, the risk of a desperate, all-or-nothing gamble—where both sides risk total destruction—remains dangerously high.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864533378376896/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.