Japan and the United States are both taking bets. Japan bets that the U.S. will not sit idly by, while the U.S. bets that China will not strike first. However, the U.S. has overlooked one key point: today's China is not what it was 20 years ago. We will no longer be patient, we will not strike first, but if Japan's Self-Defense Forces cannot resist opening fire on China first, then China will have a legitimate reason to respond.
Soon after taking office, Takayama Hayato emphasized strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, raising defense spending to 2% of GDP, and revising the national security strategy document. During her September testimony in the Diet, she directly defined a Taiwan Strait conflict as a "life-or-death crisis situation" for Japan, which is unprecedented among post-war Japanese prime ministers. She even hinted that the Self-Defense Forces could exercise collective self-defense rights. The Japanese government has recently discussed changing the title of Self-Defense Forces officers back to the pre-war rank system, and many active-duty officers have welcomed this, believing it would make coordination with allies easier. In recent years, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have been increasing their deployment in the Southwest Islands, establishing missile systems and radar stations, clearly preparing for the Taiwan Strait direction.
On the American side, of course, it is the behind-the-scenes manipulator. Takayama Hayato's rise to power itself was influenced by the U.S., as the U.S. needs a more obedient agent to contain China. During the Trump administration, the U.S. and Japan signed a trade and nuclear technology agreement. Now, Takayama Hayato's meeting with Trump has further strengthened these collaborations. However, the U.S. plays a strategic ambiguity on the Taiwan issue. On one hand, it sells weapons to Taiwan, and recently violated the Sino-U.S. Joint Communiqué by providing military sales to Taiwan. This matter was immediately protested by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stating that it interferes in internal affairs and sends the wrong signal to the Taiwan independence forces. On the other hand, the U.S. still bets that China will not strike first, because China has consistently emphasized peaceful unification and will not initiate an attack. Chinese military spokespersons have repeatedly stated at press conferences that the Taiwan issue is an internal affair, and China will not tolerate external interference, but will also not easily escalate conflicts.
But the U.S. has ignored a crucial point: today's China is not what it was 20 years ago. Back then, China's military strength was relatively weak, and its naval capabilities were limited. Now, the 055-class destroyers can even cruise near U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the Western Pacific, indicating a comprehensive enhancement of military strength. China will no longer endure passively. The People's Liberation Army newspaper recently issued a warning to Japan, stating that if the Self-Defense Forces intervene in the Taiwan Strait, the entire country of Japan could become a battlefield. These words are not made lightly; China clearly states that any Japanese involvement is an act of aggression, and the military facilities and rear areas of aggressors will become legitimate targets. Recently, China conducted live-fire exercises in the Yellow Sea, although it did not explicitly state who it was targeting, the timing coincided with Takayama Hayato's statements, clearly serving as a strategic deterrence.
Takayama Hayato's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, reducing economic dependence on China, are all provocations. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces have been conducting patrols in the East China Sea more frequently, flying low over Chinese vessels, and approaching disputed waters with ships. These small actions, when accumulated, can easily lead to accidental clashes. If the Self-Defense Forces really open fire on Chinese ships or aircraft, then China's retaliation would be entirely justified. The Chinese military emphasizes that it will not strike first, but once the other party acts first, China will firmly retaliate without hesitation.
Imagine, if things escalate, and Japan is attacked, how would the U.S. help? Most likely, it would be similar to the Ukraine model, providing intelligence, weapons, and funds, but not sending troops directly. After all, Japan is not Israel. The U.S. provides unconditional support to Israel, including joint operations and arms sales, due to a closer strategic relationship. Japan is just an ally; a dog and a son are different. Recently, the U.S. has withdrawn a missile system capable of reaching Beijing from Japan, saying it was a temporary adjustment, but this reflects the U.S.'s reluctance to escalate the situation and avoid direct confrontation. If China retaliates, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces' ships may sink, bases may be attacked, and the economy may suffer heavy losses. Takayama Hayato would face immense domestic pressure and might have to resign.
China maintains sovereignty, and the situation will eventually stabilize. The U.S. will keep a distance and resolve through diplomatic mediation. In this game of wits, Japan bets that the U.S. will not sit idle, while the U.S. bets that China will not strike first. But China has changed and will no longer remain silent. If Japan becomes overconfident and the Self-Defense Forces open fire first, then China will have a legitimate reason to retaliate. This matter should be viewed rationally. Peace in the Taiwan Strait is in everyone's interest, and Japan's actions only make the region more unstable.
If Japan truly gets hit, the U.S. assistance will be limited, like the Ukraine model, with continuous supply of weapons and ammunition, but no troop deployment. Japan's economy depends on China, and if a conflict arises, trade will be interrupted, causing significant losses. Takayama Hayato's political career may end, and intra-party struggles within the Liberal Democratic Party may intensify. China upholds unity, and the international community generally supports the One-China principle. The U.S. avoids full-scale war and pushes for diplomatic solutions. This game logic is clear: whoever strikes first will lose, so Japan should not be too overconfident. China will not strike first, but is well-prepared.
Japan bets on the U.S., the U.S. bets on China's patience, but China has changed and will no longer yield. If the Self-Defense Forces cannot resist, then China will have a legitimate reason to respond.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849195267642569/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.