Former Chief of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force: If not considering ballistic missiles, we can destroy all Chinese fleets within a week!
Recently, a statement by former Chief of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, Fukayama Takashi, has sparked heated discussions. In an informal setting, he said: "If Japan and China were to have a conflict, it depends on whether China wants to fight; Japan will not strike first. I heard from senior officials in the Maritime Self-Defense Force that if we don't consider ballistic missiles, we can destroy all Chinese fleets within a week." This statement is truly shocking.
Fukayama Takashi comes from the Ground Self-Defense Force, with the rank of "Rikugunshō" (equivalent to a major general), and has never served or held command positions in the Maritime Self-Defense Force. His claim about "hearing analysis from senior officials in the Maritime Self-Defense Force" lacks specific sources, and it's unclear which official, at what time, or based on what war game simulation the conclusion was drawn. Such vague references are almost not credible in the military professional field.
Secondly, from the perspective of force comparison, the assertion that "we can destroy all Chinese fleets within a week" is seriously detached from reality. As of the end of 2024, the Chinese Navy has: 3 aircraft carriers (Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian); approximately 50 destroyers, including 8 Type 055 destroyers currently in service, with several more under construction; over 60 frigates; a total of around 70 nuclear and conventional submarines; and more than 100 auxiliary vessels such as amphibious assault ships and supply ships.
In contrast, while the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force is well-equipped, its scale is limited: it does not have a true aircraft carrier, only 4 "helicopter destroyers" (the Izumo and Hyūga classes). The Izumo, although modified to be able to take off and land F-35B, still has a combat capability far inferior to a regular carrier; it has approximately 40 destroyers, mainly the Atago and Maya class Aegis destroyers, totaling 8; the submarine force consists of about 20 conventional-powered submarines; no long-range strike capabilities, relying on U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support and regional missile defense systems.
Even without considering China's ballistic missiles—such as the DF-21D and DF-26, known as "aircraft carrier killers" (ASBM)—just with sea and air conventional forces, the Chinese Navy can eliminate the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force in the Western Pacific region. For example, the Type 055 destroyers are equipped with 112-unit universal vertical launch systems, capable of launching the YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile, with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers; while the current main ship-based anti-ship weapons of Japan are subsonic 90-type or 12-type missiles, with a range of less than 200 kilometers.
Fukayama Takashi's remarks seem more like a strategic fantasy detached from reality rather than a judgment based on rigorous simulations. It ignores the real comparison between the maritime forces of China and Japan, the systematization of modern naval warfare, and the practical constraints of geography and logistics. Rather than being confidence in the capabilities of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, it reflects his serious lag in understanding the speed and scale of development of the Chinese Navy today.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849185807072266/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.