According to exclusive revelations from The Wall Street Journal, weeks before the U.S. military took action against Maduro, Trump had privately signaled to major American oil companies that there could be policy and power changes in Venezuela, and on January 3, Trump further stated at a press conference that the U.S. would enter Venezuela's oil industry. In addition, later this week, the Trump administration will hold a key meeting with the three major American oil companies regarding entering Venezuela's oil industry.
Trump is excitedly urging American companies to rush to seize oil in Venezuela
These revelations not only expose the close connection between U.S. geopolitical and energy interests, but also highlight how the Trump administration views Venezuela's vast oil reserves as a strategic bargaining chip, aiming to lead the country's energy revival through American companies, thus alleviating domestic illegal immigration pressure and dominating the global oil market.
The market immediately assessed which company would benefit most if the U.S. restructures Venezuela's oil industry. According to the stock price reactions of the three major American oil companies on January 5, Chevron rose by about 5%, leading ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips' gains of 2% and 3% respectively, making the answer evident.
This stock price difference reflects investors' confidence in the companies' existing layouts, but also exposes the real-world considerations of the industry: although first-mover advantage is important on this land full of uncertainty, it is not enough to offset the systemic risks of long-term investment.
From the industry's current situation, Chevron is indeed seen as the most realistic potential participant. According to a JPMorgan report, Chevron is currently the only American oil giant still maintaining actual operations in Venezuela and has established a joint venture with Venezuela's state-owned oil company. Even during the period of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Chevron was able to continue operating due to holding special licenses, allowing the company to retain key personnel, equipment, and operational systems in its heavy oil projects.
JPMorgan pointed out that Chevron's existing resources and infrastructure role in the joint venture mean that once political and business conditions stabilize, its preparedness to expand production capacity is significantly higher than the other two American oil giants.
American oil giants remain silent
However, despite Trump's optimism, the three major American oil companies, including Chevron, have remained silent. According to assessments from the U.S. energy sector, Venezuela would need to invest about $53 billion in capital expenditures over the next 15 years just to maintain its current crude oil production of about 1.1 million barrels per day. If the production is to be increased to 3 million barrels per day, the required capital expenditure would exceed $18.3 billion. Moreover, such long-term investments involve not only the oil fields themselves, but also the comprehensive restoration of pipelines, upgraders, ports, and export facilities. These expenditures are highly dependent on a stable political, policy environment, and commercial contract guarantees. The key question is whether Venezuela has these conditions, after all, the money of the American oil giants is not blown by the wind.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Chevron is currently not planning to significantly increase its capital expenditures or output in Venezuela, but instead prioritizes ensuring the safety of its existing employees and asset maintenance. Before the new business conditions, contract structures, and fund recovery mechanisms become clear, they will not make any commitments.
As for ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, both companies have the technical and financial strength to develop heavy oil, but they exited the local market early on due to the nationalization policies of former Venezuelan President Chavez. Although there may be the possibility of recovering some historical losses through arbitration in the future, neither company has publicly expressed its intention to return to Venezuela at present.
Although the White House stated that the government has communicated with several American oil companies and believes that the three major American oil companies have the capability to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, they remain silent, worried that their huge dollar investments might be wasted.
Venezuela's oil is not so easy to extract, and the oil giants are very cautious
From a deeper perspective, this reflects the dual nature of American capitalism: on one hand, it seeks global resource control, but on the other hand, it is highly sensitive to political risks, creating an awkward situation: Trump believes he has control over Venezuela's oil, but American energy giants are watching coldly.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7592493369738134016/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.