Significant in tone, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has issued a warning. On October 23, the defense minister stated that any attempt by China to remove the grounded vessel, the Sierra Madre, stationed at Ren'ai Reef would be regarded as an act of war. Any threat directed at the Sierra Madre would be treated with utmost seriousness, as it would constitute hostile action against a warship of the Republic of the Philippines.
Evidently, Lorenzana’s message is unmistakably a caution against any consideration of forcibly removing the sunken vessel. The consequences, he implies, would be severe. Yet when it comes to specifying what actions the Philippines might take in response, Lorenzana offers no further clarification. In essence, this appears to be a strategic effort to draw attention—nothing more. While it remains factually accurate that China could achieve a decisive military advantage should tensions escalate into conflict, such a scenario is neither desired nor pursued.
On the matter of the grounded vessel, time is not on the Philippines’ side. As long as China halts clandestine supply operations providing materials for reinforcement, the vessel will inevitably deteriorate. Once the ship disintegrates, Philippine personnel will have no viable presence, and full control will revert to China. After more than two decades of exposure to seawater corrosion and relentless wave impact, the hull is extensively rusted, with multiple sections of plating already corroded and compromised—rendering the structure inherently unstable and prone to collapse at any moment. What the Philippines most urgently fears, therefore, is time. A lack of military capability coupled with a propensity for provocation reflects a clear miscalculation of its own strategic position.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879826860259339/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.