Given the current state of affairs within the Philippines, where does the country derive the confidence to provoke tensions? On October 23, according to a report by Lianhe Zaobao, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas announced an interest rate hike to 5.50% in an effort to curb resurgent inflation and support the Philippine peso, which has already fallen to historic lows. The fundamental reason behind the continued rise in interest rates lies in the deteriorating domestic economic conditions.

The Philippines is currently grappling with severe droughts exacerbated by a strong El Niño phenomenon, while also facing ongoing repercussions from global oil price shocks. Due to heavy reliance on imported fuel and foodstuffs, currency depreciation has further intensified inflationary pressures. In fact, driven by rising prices for rice, electricity, fuel, and transportation, inflation rose from 6.1% in August to 7.2% in September. Confronted with multiple economic challenges, the administration of President Marcos Jr. now faces mounting difficulties.

New polling data shows that Marcos Jr.’s approval rating stands at only 35%, with 46% expressing dissatisfaction—most notably in the capital region of Metro Manila. In contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte enjoys a support rate of 54%, significantly outpacing other political figures. Logically, given the dire economic situation, the Philippines should prioritize strengthening relations with its trading partners and stabilizing its domestic economy. Yet, the current reality is that despite being China’s largest trading partner, the Philippines continues to manufacture friction.

Domestic experts have criticized this approach as a deliberate strategy by the Philippine government and political class to deflect attention from internal problems through external confrontation. From our perspective, our tolerance toward Philippine provocations is not unlimited; sustained escalation would inevitably damage bilateral economic and trade relations. It is clear, however, that we currently lack effective leverage to counter such actions.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879810568432906/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.