【Text by Observer Net, Xiong Chaoran】When German Chancellor Scholz took office this year, he promised to revitalize the weak economy, rebuild the long-neglected national infrastructure, and restore Germany's influence on the global stage.

However, according to a report by Bloomberg on November 15 local time, he has failed to fulfill his promises on many core issues. This not only fueled the development of far-right groups such as the AfD, but also sparked external speculation — whether Scholz's government will follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Schulz, and collapse before the end of his term.

A new poll by German media RTL/n-tv shows that only 16% of Germans hope that the 70-year-old Scholz will run again as a candidate in the next federal election. In addition, the two-party coalition government he leads is paralyzed due to internal conflicts and power struggles. The German stock market once soared when he took office, but has been consolidating since the summer of this year.

"There are people within the party group who question all of his statements and ask where the results are?" said Sudha David-Wilp, a senior researcher at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin: "The current outlook is bleak."

On October 16, 2025, local time, German Chancellor Scholz delivered a speech in the Bundestag. Oriental IC

According to reports, on November 15 local time, Scholz faced an "open rebellion" from the youth organization of his party, which opposed a pension reform plan currently being pushed through the parliament.

"This pension plan has additional costs of 12 billion euros, far exceeding the agreement in the coalition government, and cannot be allowed under any circumstances," Johannes Winkel, leader of the conservative organization "Junge Union" under the CDU, said at a meeting held in Rust, southern Germany.

At the event, Scholz stated that he understood the concerns of some young conservatives, but still defended the bill. He insisted that as the leader of the CDU and the chancellor, he must also consider the interests of the elderly. "I must ensure that we can still win a majority in the Federal Republic of Germany in terms of structure," he told the representatives during the heated debate: "The task of the federal chancellor is to balance interests."

This was a risky gamble for Scholz. Eighteen members of the youth conservative faction have announced that they will block the bill in the parliament, while the ruling party has only a slim majority of 12 seats. If the bill fails, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) may withdraw from the coalition government, and Scholz's government could face collapse.

Lars Klingbeil, chairman of the SPD and vice-chancellor and finance minister of Germany, stated that his party would not agree to any modifications to the bill. "I want to make it clear: this law will not be amended," Klingbeil said at a party event on the same day: "We will pass it in the Bundestag."

Bloomberg pointed out that when Scholz took office, Germany was in a difficult period. A capricious, even hostile, U.S. president returned to the White House; the Russia-Ukraine conflict cut off Germany's energy supply and disrupted its perception of security; relations with China deteriorated; and long-standing management problems of immigration had fueled the growth of right-wing forces.

In his first speech as chancellor, Scholz promised to address all these issues.

He said he would stop mass immigration, build the underfunded German Armed Forces into the strongest army in Europe, and end one of the longest economic recessions in post-war German history.

"Through our own efforts, we can once again become a growth engine that attracts global attention," Scholz promised, stating that German citizens would feel the initial benefits of economic growth by the summer of this year.

However, six months later, voters are still waiting...

Instead, they hear daily about economic uncertainty and news of large-scale layoffs in German companies. Last week, Scholz's advisors downgraded the growth forecast for Germany next year to below 1%, highlighting the huge challenges the chancellor faces in restoring substantive growth in the largest economy of the Eurozone. They pointed out that Germany has long-term economic problems, and changes in the geopolitical landscape threaten its export model.

Investors have also been re-evaluating Germany's economic prospects. After a sharp rise in the first nine months of the year, stock indices focused on the domestic market have seen minimal gains since September 30. At the same time, defense stocks have plummeted sharply, with shares of Rheinmetall dropping more than 20%.

Although economists and officials acknowledge that the government's 50 billion euro infrastructure plan will take more than six months to show results, voters have already begun to feel frustrated because trains are still delayed, bridges remain damaged, and highways remain closed. From a political perspective, the only result so far from this plan is that conservatives accuse Scholz of breaking his promise to control borrowing and are concerned about the country's financial situation.

Critics attack Scholz for his short temper and divisive rhetoric. As a leader of the opposition, his sharpness was sometimes seen as an advantage, but now as chancellor, it may cause trouble.

Last month, when Scholz tried to explain his government's stricter immigration policy, he boasted about the increase in deportations and indirectly complained that there were still many immigrants left in inland German cities — a statement that some saw as racist and even led to protests, but his response did not calm the situation.

"If you have a daughter, ask her what I mean," Scholz said to a reporter in Berlin: "Everyone will admit that the problem does exist, especially after dark."

In the international arena, Scholz's performance has been more conciliatory. Soon after his election, he met with several leaders and received an invitation to visit the United States, establishing a rather friendly relationship with U.S. President Trump, but these efforts have not brought substantial results.

A German official who did not want to be named said that Trump's capriciousness and unpredictability made it almost impossible to establish an effective working relationship.

In October this year, Scholz caused confusion at the EU leaders' meeting, mistakenly reporting that the EU had reached a trade agreement with Mercosur. Later, he dismissed the mistake as a "small issue."

On November 11 local time, Scholz turned 70. He told reporters: "One of the great advantages of growing older is that you become more composed, learning to distinguish what is important and what is not. I am glad I am in good health and can fully commit myself to my duties as chancellor."

On May 5, 2025, local time, Berlin, Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), together forming the German Union Party, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) signed a coalition governing agreement. IC Photo

Bloomberg believes that the coming year is crucial.

More of Scholz's economic policies will take effect in January next year, and officials hope that businesses and consumers will begin to feel the impact of these policies. In addition, there will be five state elections next year, which will test Scholz's performance in the eyes of voters.

In the eastern states of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has the opportunity to win an absolute majority and govern at the regional level for the first time.

"The state elections next year will definitely cause some anxiety," said David-Wilp: "Given the current favorable situation of the AfD, maintaining the unity of the ruling coalition is in the interest of all parties."

Anadolu Agency of Turkey reported on November 15 local time that there had been intense debates within the CDU about whether it might be possible to cooperate with far-right parties in the future. On that day, Scholz ruled out the possibility of cooperation with the AfD.

"The CDU will not cooperate with the AfD. We are completely different from them, and we have absolutely nothing in common with them!" At the same time, Scholz urged the SPD in the coalition government to intensify efforts to curb the political rise of the AfD. "The SPD is currently losing a considerable number of voters to this party."

The report points out that the AfD is currently the largest opposition party in the Bundestag. When Scholz made these remarks, Germany will hold multiple state elections next year, including elections in two eastern states. In these states, the AfD maintains support of around 40%, far ahead of all other parties.

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