Trump said he would decide within "the next two weeks" whether to order a U.S. military strike against Iran. International media believed that this gave a two-week window for negotiation to end the military conflict between Israel and Iran through talks.
Israel is Really Struggling
However, Trump's words cannot be trusted. On June 22, 2025, a date destined to be recorded in history, the U.S. officially sent troops to the Middle East, marking the outbreak of the sixth Middle East War.
The main reason why Trump didn't wait for two weeks was because Israel really couldn't hold on anymore. It wasn't just Iran's missiles; even Iran's drones could not be intercepted by Israel's air defense network. Iran's main long-range drones are the Shaheds. Although the Shahed can fly over 2,500 kilometers from Iran's mainland to reach all over Israel, the problem is that the distance between Iran and Israel is nearly 2,000 kilometers. The Shahed uses an MD550 piston engine, with a top speed of only about 200 kilometers per hour. In this case, it takes at least 10 hours for the Shahed to fly from Iran to Israel.
With such slow speed, Israel still failed to intercept it, indicating that Israel's anti-missile interception missiles have been exhausted. Iran's "Shahed-136" suicide drone (Kamikaze type) successfully attacked a target in Bet She'an region of Israel. The Shahed-136 drone can carry 30 to 50 kilograms of explosive warhead, directly penetrating buildings. For two consecutive days, an Iranian drone flew all the way to Haifa in the northwest of Israel without being detected - no alarm sounded.
Moreover, Iran and Yemen's Houthi armed group simultaneously launched drone operations, leaving Israel unable to cope with attacks from both ends and suffering simultaneous attacks from north and south.
This all indicates that Iran's hardliners have gained control of the internal discourse in Iran and are becoming more adept at striking Israel. If Trump really decided to wait two weeks before deciding whether to step in, Israel would collapse.
The U.S. Military Is Assembling Stronger Forces
The six B-2 bombers deployed by the U.S. military successfully struck three nuclear facilities in Iran: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. As the world's first stealth bomber, the B-2 is almost impossible for Iran's air defense systems to detect, especially since Iran has lost air superiority in its western regions and capital.
Iran has many nuclear facilities, but only two can produce weapons-grade enriched uranium: the Natanz nuclear facility and the Fordo nuclear facility. The Isfahan nuclear facility does not directly enrich uranium but provides the front-end UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) for Natanz and Fordo. Therefore, these three nuclear facilities became the targets directly attacked by the U.S. military.
It is unclear whether the U.S. military has used the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). This bomb weighs 13.6 tons and contains 2.34 tons of explosives. It can penetrate up to 60 meters into medium-density soil and 19 meters into reinforced concrete. If the U.S. military really wants to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and overcome Iran's underground defense system, they will have to use the GBU-57 MOP. The Fordo underground nuclear facility is located 90 meters underground and reinforced with multiple layers of concrete, making it difficult for conventional weapons to penetrate. Even the GBU-57 MOP would require multiple strikes to penetrate. Once used, it would mean that Iran's complete nuclear weapons production chain would be completely destroyed.
Now the U.S. has gathered a large number of air forces, stationed at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Currently, there are at least 54 F-16 fighter jets, 22 KC-135 tankers, 11 C-130 transport planes, and other U.S. and allied aircraft. Moreover, the U.S. has three aircraft carriers + ten guided missile destroyers in the Middle East.
After the U.S. deploys its forces, it will be able to exert much stronger deterrence on Iran. Theoretically speaking, three aircraft carriers can carry a total of seventy-two F35Cs, with daily sortie rates exceeding two hundred and fifty times. Even if only partially deployed, it will greatly enhance the current strike effect against Iran.
Before, although Israel also deployed F35s, they were mainly launched from fixed bases, which are easier to become targets of Iranian missiles. The U.S.'s F35s take off from aircraft carriers, giving them stronger mobility. In other aspects, such as electronic deception, electronic interference coverage, and stealth penetration, they can coordinate with Israeli fighters to more effectively strike various Iranian facilities.
Israel certainly won't miss such a good opportunity. Even if Iran wants to back down or surrender, Israel won't agree now. The intervention of the U.S. military means the outbreak of the sixth Middle East War.
Aircraft Carrier Vacuum in the Asia-Pacific Region for the U.S.
This is a crucial moment for China because the U.S. is now experiencing a military vacuum in the Asia-Pacific region. This is the first time in 70 years that the U.S. has not had an aircraft carrier actually deployed in the Asia-Pacific region.
Remember, ever since Obama proposed the pivot to Asia, the U.S. has concentrated a massive amount of military resources in the Western Pacific, intending to contain and suppress China.
As a key force for global power projection, the U.S. Navy maintains approximately one-third of its forces in combat-ready deployment status. After Obama proposed the rebalance to Asia strategy, the U.S. military strategic focus clearly shifted to the Asia-Pacific. The Pacific Fleet has over 200 ships and more than 150,000 personnel, accounting for more than 60% of the Navy's total strength. The existence of this vast forward presence is supported by its eleven base networks (Hawaii, Guam, Japan, South Korea, Alaska, the United States mainland, Australia and New Zealand, Southeast Asia, the Middle East/Central Asia/Indian Ocean/North Africa, Europe, Latin America), with more than 500 bases worldwide. Notably, most of these bases are densely deployed around China, particularly the Hawaii base network, which serves as the Indo-Pacific command and logistics hub, and the Japanese base network (with the only overseas aircraft carrier port outside the U.S.), posing direct and sustained strategic pressure on China.
The U.S.' determination to contain China is particularly evident in its Western Pacific deployments. Even when the entire U.S. carrier fleet (11 carriers) usually has only 4-5 deployed simultaneously, the U.S. still strives to maintain two carriers in the Western Pacific to ensure overwhelming maritime intervention capabilities in key areas like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
However, now that the U.S. has been forced to mobilize forces to intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East, it must divert critical military resources from the Western Pacific. For instance, there are no aircraft carriers in the Asia-Pacific region anymore. The USS Washington, which has been stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, is currently undergoing maintenance in port, rendering it virtually useless. Such a strategic vacuum has rarely occurred in the U.S.'s more than 60 years of deployment in the Asia-Pacific region. To note, even during the height of the Iraq War, the U.S. always maintained at least one aircraft carrier in the Asia-Pacific region.
The U.S. has even dispatched bombers and refueling aircraft from its homeland to the Middle East for support. The U.S. Air Force has only 20 B-2 stealth bombers, all deployed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. This time, seven B-2 bombers were directly dispatched, an unprecedented scale in 20 years.
A Critical Moment for China's National Fortune
This has multiple benefits for China: First, the direct military pressure China faces in the Western Pacific will significantly decrease. Second, the withdrawal of U.S. forces will weaken its ability to intervene and support allies in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues, making these hotspots relatively peaceful. Most importantly, this will win China valuable strategic development time and space.
No matter what happens when the U.S. intervenes in Iran, China will benefit:
- If the U.S. successfully suppresses Iran but at a high cost: If the U.S. ultimately suppresses Iran, the process will consume a huge amount of military and strategic resources, leaving it severely weakened. In this situation, the U.S. will be powerless to maintain its strict blockade and high-pressure posture against China in the Western Pacific.
- If the U.S. fails to suppress Iran and loses its Middle Eastern hegemony: If the U.S. cannot effectively respond to Iran's challenges, its dominant position in the Middle East will collapse, fundamentally shaking its global hegemony system.
- China gains a strategic initiative: Even if the U.S. successfully suppresses Iran in the Middle East, it will inevitably lead to the dispersion and depletion of its forces. At this time, deeply embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and dealing with the Middle East, the U.S. will find it difficult to simultaneously focus on the Western Pacific.
For a U.S. military already relatively constrained, maintaining a three-front war in the Middle East, the Western Pacific, and Ukraine is almost impossible. In this situation, China will have much greater room to act proactively in the Asian direction (whether in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, or the Korean Peninsula), forcing the U.S. to further divide its forces in its strained global deployment.
In summary, the U.S. military's intervention means reallocating forces back to the Middle East. Regardless of the outcome in the Middle East, whether it is a bitter victory or failure, it will greatly disperse and deplete its strategic resources.
This will inevitably weaken its deployment and containment capabilities against China in the Western Pacific, significantly improving China's surrounding security environment and creating very favorable conditions for China to expand its strategic space and advance its core interests. From China's perspective, the intensification of the Middle East situation is undoubtedly a major strategic opportunity to constrain the U.S. and alleviate its own pressure.
What the U.S. fears the most now should be that China might add fuel to the fire in the Middle East for the U.S. military!
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518483404959023628/
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