India and Pakistan are now on high alert, with an extremely tense atmosphere, as if they have returned to the eve of the conflict six years ago. Will the air forces of India and Pakistan once again engage in a South Asian aerial showdown?
[Indian Air Force's Rafale fighter jets participating in the 'Akraman' air exercise]
This is most evident in the high-intensity activities of both countries' air forces. The Indian Air Force is currently conducting the 'Akraman' air exercise near the India-Pakistan border, with a variety of aircraft including Rafales and Su-30MKIs being deployed collectively.
On the other side, open-source intelligence shows that Pakistan's Il-78M aerial refueling aircraft is also highly active near the border, suspected of providing aerial refueling services for patrol aircraft.
The appearance of these signs indicates that the air forces of both India and Pakistan have entered a state of readiness, and a new round of India-Pakistan conflict could break out at any time.
[Indian military conducting the 'Akraman' air exercise near the border]
Considering the gap in comprehensive national strength and military scale between India and Pakistan, we can easily draw a conclusion that in this potential conflict, the Indian Air Force may seek to utilize its numerical superiority and advanced weapons to launch a rapid and intense surprise attack on Pakistan, forcing the Pakistani Air Force into a passive response.
In the 2019 India-Pakistan air combat, the Indian Air Force suffered a loss due to overconfidence and rashness, with one MiG-21 fighter jet shot down by the Pakistani Air Force.
At that time, the Indian military attempted precision-guided strikes on targets within Pakistani territory, sending Mirage-2000 fighter jets with laser-guided bombs to冒险 cross the border for bombing. However, there were deviations in command and dispatch, causing all airstrikes to miss their targets.
It didn't matter that the Indian military missed their targets; Pakistan was still successfully provoked and threatened retaliation, forcing the Indian military to organize patrols in the border airspace.
The MiG-21 Bison flown by Abhinandan was shot down during a patrol, affected by Pakistani electronic warfare interference and falling into an ambush, subsequently locked onto and hit by Pakistani fighters. Whether it was an F-16 or a JF-17 that took action remains controversial, and Pakistan has not provided clear details.
[Downed Indian MiG-21 fighter jet by JF-17]
In the time since, although no further clashes have occurred between the two sides, prolonged confrontation has been enough for the Indian military to realize the dangers in the border airspace.
To achieve a surprise attack on Pakistan in the next conflict while minimizing losses, the Indian Air Force must adjust its tactics.
Luckily, thanks to years of "buying and buying," India now has nearly 30 Rafale fighters. These French aircraft can launch the "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles jointly developed by the UK and France to strike targets within Pakistani territory from beyond the engagement zone.
[Indian Rafale fighter jets equipped with Storm Shadow cruise missiles]
With the "Storm Shadow," the Rafale does not need to approach the border airspace to complete the task of striking targets within Pakistani territory, which is a trump card for the Indian Air Force.
The biggest shortcoming of the Rafale is its limited numbers; only two squadrons can be allocated to two fronts, and without coordination with other units, it would be easy to face targeted interceptions by the Pakistani Air Force.
After the conflict breaks out, the Indian military will undoubtedly organize multiple aircraft formations to maneuver from different directions, presenting an appearance of multiple offensive routes to disperse the defensive forces of the Pakistani Air Force.
After all, compared to the Indian Air Force, the Pakistani Air Force has a clear disadvantage in terms of aircraft numbers. To intercept the Rafale, how well the J-10CE is utilized might be the key to the outcome of the air battle.
However, speaking of the past six years, besides purchasing the J-10CE to counter the threat posed by the Rafale, Pakistan has also acquired the HQ-9BE, a theater-level air defense system capable of partially sealing off the airspace near the India-Pakistan border, significantly offsetting the numerical advantage of the Indian military aircraft.
Meanwhile, the latest Block 3 JF-17s have already entered mass production and service, capable of launching PL-15E missiles, forming a complementary pairing with the J-10CE.
[Pakistan Air Force's J-10CE fighter jets]
Additionally, the Pakistani Air Force has actively participated in joint exercises with the Chinese Air Force, accumulating a wealth of experience in dealing with fourth-generation and fourth-plus-generation fighters.
The Pakistani Air Force's airborne early warning unit has established a 24-hour duty network. Even though their aircraft numbers are relatively small, relying on a tight air defense system, superior aircraft performance, and experienced pilots, they can either contest air supremacy with the Indian Air Force or intercept "Storm Shadow" missiles launched by the Indian military.
From another perspective, the combination of India's Rafale and Storm Shadow missiles is tactically preferred for standoff strikes but poses a risk of escalating the conflict strategically. You just need to look at Russia's reaction to Ukraine using Storm Shadows to understand the situation.
[Pakistan Air Force's JF-17 fighter jets equipped with CM-400AKG air-launched ballistic missiles]
India is a nuclear-armed nation, and Pakistan cannot accurately determine whether India's standoff weapons launched during wartime are nuclear missiles or pose a threat to its own nuclear facilities. A strategic misjudgment could lead the India-Pakistan conflict toward a nuclear war scenario.
Moreover, Pakistan also has a range of standoff weapons, such as domestically produced "Raad" and "Raad-2" air-launched cruise missiles, and China-made CM-400AKG air-launched ballistic missiles.
If the conflict escalates to the level of exchanging standoff weapons from afar, India's air force does not have the upper hand. After all, each Storm Shadow missile is precious, and Europe doesn't have many inventories; they might even take advantage of the situation to make a profit.
In addition to the Storm Shadow, the Indian Air Force also has Israel-provided "Spice" air-launched ballistic missiles for standoff strike missions. Open-source information shows that Israel has recently been intensively transporting military supplies into India, possibly including air-launched precision-guided munitions.
[Jaguar attack aircraft equipped with Spice air-launched ballistic missiles]
In summary, the current situation between India and Pakistan can be described as "India attacking and Pakistan defending," with India holding the strategic initiative. However, India's tactical advantages are not obvious, and it still needs to rely on rigorous air operations to "score" and end this localized conflict gracefully.
In other words, the Indian military must win convincingly while avoiding turning this conflict into a full-scale war, which places a significant test on the planning ability, execution ability, and training level of the Indian military from top to bottom. Missing any link could result in catastrophic consequences.
If Indian aircraft are shot down again and the pilot and wreckage fall into Pakistani hands, reproducing the scene from six years ago, the Modi government would find itself in a difficult position.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497424538444055074/
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