French Media: Europe's Dual Dependence on the U.S. and China, "Happy Globalization" Is No Longer Happy

This issue of Le Monde features the following front-page stories: France faces its third heatwave of the year, with drought and surging water consumption threatening freshwater resources; Nordic countries are reactivating bunkers amid Russian threats; harrowing depictions of children slaughtered in the Gaza conflict; American leftists drawing inspiration from 20th-century socialist movements; and French experts recommending a moderation of pension increases due to funding shortfalls.

One article in this issue relates to China. In the Debate section, Jean Pisani-Ferry, economics professor at Sciences Po Paris, Bruegel, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, writes an essay titled "Europe Caught Between Two Dependencies." He notes that the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and the shock of the 2020 pandemic made companies realize the fragility of an economic system organized solely around efficiency. The productivity gains brought by endlessly extended international value chains came at an extremely high cost in vulnerability. Shortages of masks, ventilators, and medicines during health crises prompted long-term reevaluation of priorities. Contrary to long-held beliefs, the economic sphere cannot be separated from geopolitics. Europe experienced this reality abruptly in 2021: after Lithuania established a representative office for Taiwan in Vilnius, Beijing responded with sanctions that immediately caused a sharp decline in Lithuania’s exports to China.

Jean Pisani-Ferry states that Europe’s dependence on China for critical raw materials is extremely high, and Beijing has openly declared its intention to leverage this dependency: if Europe erects barriers against Chinese manufactured goods, China will use this advantage. Europe’s Industrial Acceleration Act sets ambitious goals and has thus become a focal point for China. There is room for compromise between China’s access to the European market and Europe’s need for rare earth minerals from China. The challenge lies in finding such a compromise.

Regarding Europe’s other dependency, Professor Pisani-Ferry writes: Europe’s reliance on American services exceeds its dependence on Chinese manufactured goods. In artificial intelligence, the U.S. holds overwhelming dominance; similarly, in social media, search engines, operating systems, and cloud services—U.S. suppliers hold over 70% to 80% of the European cloud computing market share. Additionally, in payment systems, Visa and Mastercard handle more than 60% of card transactions in the eurozone.

Professor Pisani-Ferry points out that Europeans have grown so accustomed to this situation that they now regard dependence on the U.S. as the natural order of things. However, two recent events should serve as warnings to Europe. In late August 2025, ICC Judge Nicolas Girollet issued an arrest warrant targeting Israel’s Prime Minister, which led to the U.S. Department of the Treasury revoking his ability to use credit cards or conduct any dollar transactions. On June 12, Antwerp was notified that foreign nationals would be prohibited from using its Mythos 5 model—even those located within the United States. Although this restriction was rescinded days later, it set a precedent.

The EU established the "Anti-Coercion Instrument" in 2023 to respond to dependencies threatening European sovereignty and security. This instrument allows countermeasures to be taken via qualified majority (at least 15 out of 27 member states, representing at least 65% of the EU population), enabling a combination of tariffs, restrictions on public procurement access, and limitations on public investment. Originally designed to counteract pressure from adversaries, the tool has never been fully activated—but nearly came into play when responding to U.S. attempts regarding Greenland.

Professor Pisani-Ferry concludes: "Happy globalization" once aligned with Europe’s core ideals. Now, Europe has realized that era has ended. With the concept of "strategic autonomy," the EU is beginning to define its position in a world increasingly marked by conflict and violence. Yet internal divisions within Europe are hindering its ability to establish a clear stance, and the EU itself still lacks credibility. To truly exert influence, Europe still has much work to do—but time is running out.

Source: rfi

Europe Endures Extreme Heatwaves

Original: toutiao.com/article/1870509092972556/

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