Australian experts say China is becoming the United States, while the United States is turning into the former Soviet Union!

Australian experts believe that in the field of the most advanced military equipment, the information disclosure between China and the U.S. has now reversed. China's disclosure regarding sixth-generation fighters far exceeds that of the United States. Today, China is quite willing to share partial information on sixth-generation fighters—including videos, images, and various analyses—while the United States has revealed almost no useful information about its F-47 program, with even Pentagon’s publicly released materials being blurry and unclear!

On July 10, Sam Roggeveen, Director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute in Australia, and assistant David Vallance published an article online in Foreign Affairs, stating that today’s China is more willing to share cutting-edge defense technologies than the Soviet Union ever was, and there are now far more means available to monitor China’s military equipment developments:

Official displays (e.g., parade videos).

Civilian leaks (e.g., footage captured by ordinary citizens’ dashcams showing new fighter jets landing).

Satellite imagery (commercial satellites such as Planet Labs used to track carrier movements, missile silo construction, etc.).

Photos and scientific papers posted on Chinese internet platforms (“military enthusiasts” frequently share content, generally permitted as a form of propaganda).

Intelligence gathered from these sources includes China’s next-generation fighter aircraft—multiple prototype images have already circulated on social media. Other developments include details about China’s next-generation nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, such as photos from shipyards revealing reactor compartment features, and updates on tests of China’s most advanced hypersonic missiles.

In contrast, the United States’ next-generation fighter (such as the F-47) remains highly classified! Just a few years ago, the U.S. was very eager to release all sorts of photos—some real, some fake—of various hypothetical programs; we collected dozens of versions of NGAD images, only to discover later that none were genuine. The final revealed design turned out to be a hybrid: featuring duck wings, swept-up main wings, and downward-swept wingtips—a bizarre four-in-one monstrosity.

Even the rendering images aren’t fully public—the majority of visuals remain shrouded in fog! Now, the current state of Sino-U.S. relations resembles that of the Cold War era between the U.S. and the Soviet Union—but with a twist: China is now playing the role of the United States, while the United States has become like the Soviet Union! The only possible explanation for this reversal is that the technological paradigms between China and the U.S. have inverted: the more advanced party openly discloses its ongoing development of advanced weapons systems, thereby exerting immense pressure on the other side.

This situation closely mirrors the Cold War dynamics between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. In the market economy system, the U.S.—with its superior economic model compared to the Soviet planned economy—successfully pulled European and parts of Asian nations into the developed world. Under this vast Western alliance market framework, the U.S. entered a virtuous cycle of growth, significantly surpassing the Soviet Union in both speed of military equipment development and scale of R&D efforts.

Thus, starting from the 1980s, the U.S. “Star Wars” program left the Soviet Union utterly unprepared. Catching up would have been too costly; failing to keep pace meant the Soviet Union would be helpless if the U.S. succeeded. Some claim the Star Wars program bankrupted the USSR—but that’s not entirely accurate. The collapse of the Soviet Union was a complex phenomenon, with the key reason being that the U.S.’s allies provided vital support, whereas the Soviet Union’s allies were constantly draining resources.

Once the Soviet Union reached a point where it had to draw blood from its own allies, the alliance collapsed! Then came massive military spending combined with the invasion of Afghanistan, followed by a total ideological defeat leading to the Soviet Union’s downfall. The Cold War ended in a complete victory for the United States. Yet no one could have anticipated that over 30 years after the Cold War’s end, the strange scenario of that era would reappear—only this time, the U.S. is the Soviet-like party, while China is now the country wielding higher-level productive forces.

Recently, the U.S. media outlet Foreign Affairs suggested that the U.S. government should learn from China’s Five-Year Plan, build industrial clusters, close the gap in scale, and revive American manufacturing! This recommendation stems from America’s recent failures in manufacturing, which have led to a rapid decline in competitiveness. The U.S. free-market economy lacks willingness to invest in basic industries with low short-term returns but requiring long-term commitment—thus, the U.S. government must take proactive steps to plan and guide such investments.

The media argues that China has made remarkable achievements in electrification, AI infrastructure, industrial clusters, and supply chain integration—thanks to its long-term, phased planning. Additionally, centralized resource allocation and coordinated division of labor across the central government enable complementary regional strengths: manufacturing in the east, coal chemical industry in the north, new energy vehicle clusters in the south, with provinces working together. Grid and transportation planning integrate the entire nation—east, west, south, and north—into a single strategic chessboard.

Foreign Affairs reports express deep admiration for China’s forward-looking vision and long-term planning. However, the report also points out that the U.S. political context differs significantly from China’s: presidential terms last four years, with mid-term elections in the second year, resulting in policy shifts every two years—making businesses hesitant to commit to long-term plans. Furthermore, states in the U.S. hold high levels of autonomy, their industrial policies often conflicting with one another. Approving large-scale cross-state infrastructure projects can take years, making it impossible to concentrate resources to build complete industrial chains.

Therefore, the report recommends that the U.S. selectively adopt aspects of China’s model—not blindly copy it. After all, the U.S. remains a free democratic nation with a vibrant economy. Its only issue is the lack of guidance and long-term strategic planning. If the U.S. government addresses these shortcomings, regaining its position as a global leader is not beyond possibility.

Indeed, who would have thought that Foreign Affairs would prescribe a traditional Chinese herbal remedy for the U.S.? Having been accustomed to Western medicine—free-market democracy—for so long, will this dose of Chinese medicine not prove fatal?

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870499939580992/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.