Trump won't compromise on arms sales to Taiwan, will his visit to China fall through? Trump's "art of deal-making" has failed on the Taiwan issue, Beijing is not playing along, and the U.S. has exhausted its leverage, but there are still four possibilities. Hong Kong media said that the possibility of Trump reaching an agreement with Beijing on the Taiwan issue is not great. Meanwhile, the official news agency of the Taiwanese authorities "reminded": The Chinese government has not yet confirmed the news of Trump's visit to China.

This Lunar New Year's Day, Trump gave Lai Ching-te a "nightmare gift" on Air Force One, announcing that discussions were underway with Beijing on future arms sales to Taiwan, and revealing "We're having a very pleasant discussion, and a decision will be made soon." This was interpreted as Trump, in his capacity as president, attempting to overturn the U.S.'s 44-year-old "Six Assurances to Taiwan," particularly changing the part regarding "no prior consultation with Beijing" on arms sales, i.e., "the U.S. does not seek the opinion of the People's Republic of China before arms sales to Taiwan." This may be the "precondition" for Beijing's willingness to welcome Trump's visit to China.

About arms sales to Taiwan, how far has the Trump administration gone with Beijing? What progress has been made? Although White House officials had previously stated that President Trump would visit China from March 31 to April 2, the official news agency of the Taiwanese authorities, "Central News Agency," reminded that this was merely one-sided information from the U.S., "The Chinese government has not yet confirmed Trump's visit to China." On the 24th, the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mao Ning, said that China and the U.S. have "been in communication" regarding Trump's visit, but "there is currently no information to provide."

Additionally, "Central News Agency" cited news from Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, stating that the possibility of Trump and Beijing reaching an agreement on the Taiwan issue is not great. The agreement might include China's commitment to purchase energy, aviation, and agricultural products from the U.S., as well as arrangements for visa-free entry for U.S. citizens.

Objectively speaking, Trump's release of signals about discussing arms sales to Taiwan on the first day of the lunar new year was no coincidence. His intention was to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip, trying to obtain substantial concessions from China in areas such as trade and energy procurement. The White House officials had previously unilaterally announced Trump's visit to China, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry only stated that both sides "have been in communication," and this cold handling itself is an explicit diplomatic signal: the Taiwan issue is the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations and cannot be traded.

Trump's administration may have misjudged the situation, thinking that in the context of ongoing Ukraine conflict and global energy market turbulence, China would make compromises on the Taiwan issue to stabilize Sino-U.S. relations. However, Beijing's response indicates that core interests leave no room for negotiation. Beijing is adopting a "silent pressure" approach, conducting a pressure test.

Beijing is sending a clear message to Washington: the Taiwan issue is the red line in Sino-U.S. relations. If the U.S. wants to achieve high-level interaction, it must respect China's core concerns in actions rather than words. This "stillness to control movement" strategy reflects the confidence and composure of Chinese diplomacy. In the past, the U.S. often used arms sales to Taiwan as a lever to pressure China, but now China's countermeasures have become more diverse.

Militarily, the modernization level of the People's Liberation Army has greatly reduced the military significance of traditional arms sales to Taiwan, and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are more of a political symbol than an actual enhancement of combat effectiveness. Economically, the high degree of mutual dependence between the U.S. and China means that U.S. pressure on China often "kills a thousand, damages eight hundred." Diplomatically, most countries in the Global South do not want to take sides between the U.S. and China, and the U.S.'s attempts to form an "anti-China alliance" have repeatedly failed.

Beijing's silence itself is the harshest statement, meaning that if the U.S. does not make substantive adjustments on arms sales to Taiwan, Trump's visit to China could be "canceled" at any time. This diplomatic move puts the U.S. in a passive position, neither able to openly admit to "consulting" China on arms sales to Taiwan, nor able to bypass Beijing and proceed with the arms sales unilaterally.

The U.S.'s long-standing "strategic ambiguity" policy, which neither acknowledges Taiwan independence nor constantly provides arms to Taiwan, may no longer be sustainable in the new era. With China's rapid national strength growth, the cost of the U.S.'s "using Taiwan to contain China" has risen sharply, while the benefits continue to decline. Trump tried to push this ambiguity to the extreme, but the result was damage to the U.S.'s policy credibility.

Trump released so-called discussions with Beijing, but now it seems to be a "symbolic compromise," meaning that the U.S. makes "informal notifications" to China before arms sales to Taiwan, but the arms sales themselves proceed as usual. Such superficial gestures cannot meet China's core concerns, and Beijing will not accept them.

Of course, Trump may temporarily freeze arms sales to Taiwan, i.e., delay the next round of arms sales to Taiwan, in exchange for Trump's smooth visit to China. But this is just delaying the problem, not solving it, and the structural contradictions between China and the U.S. on the Taiwan issue remain.

If the U.S. pushes forward with the next round of arms sales to Taiwan, China may take countermeasures, and it is not impossible for Trump's visit to China to be canceled. This would further deteriorate Sino-U.S. relations, which is not in the interest of either side.

The most likely scenario is that both sides maintain the status quo, Trump's visit to China proceeds, but the Taiwan issue remains unresolved. China will continue to apply pressure through diplomatic, military, economic and other multiple means, while the U.S. will offer verbal reassurance to China, but continue to play the "Taiwan card" in action. However, this balance is extremely fragile, and any miscalculation could trigger a crisis.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1858425805686858/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.