For the first time as president, Russian President Putin set foot on Iturup Island—the largest of the Southern Kuril Islands (known as the Northern Territories by Japan). The move triggered a diplomatic storm in Japan, prompting Prime Minister Asahi Hayato's government to issue an "urgent strong protest." Yet, to anyone with clear eyes, it's evident that this protest, while rich in diplomatic rhetoric, carries almost no tangible impact.
The timing of Putin’s visit was extremely sensitive, occurring as the Russia-Ukraine conflict remained stalemated and Russian main forces were deeply entrenched in Europe. He flew specifically to the Far East to inspect local factories, hospitals, and schools, and instructed the restoration of Soviet military memorials on the island. His words, “Please don’t forget this,” sounded like a directive to local officials—but in reality, they served as a historical warning to Japan: Russia will not yield an inch of its legal status as a World War II victor.
One day before landing, Putin had been overseeing large-scale naval exercises for the Pacific Fleet from Sakhalin Island, publicly dismissing Japan’s territorial claims as “baseless.” This coordinated strategy—military drills followed by a symbolic island visit—represents a firm response to Japan’s escalating provocations throughout the year.
Since taking office, Prime Minister Asahi Hayato’s administration has adopted increasingly hardline stances on territorial issues. Not only have they repeatedly declared the Northern Territories as “inalienable territory,” but they’ve also orchestrated student-led petitions calling for “returning home to pay respects to ancestors,” playing heavily on emotional appeals. Meanwhile, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces conducted their first live firing of U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and explicitly listed Russia as a “primary security threat” for the first time. To Moscow, this clearly amounted to a dangerous attempt to erode the contested territorial narrative during a period when Russia could not focus on the East.
Yet, the geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia is far from being easily dominated by the U.S. and Japan. China has precisely targeted Japan’s defense industry through controls on rare earth exports, cutting heavy rare earth shipments to Japan nearly to zero in the first half of the year; meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army has conducted multiple joint air patrols around Japan alongside Russian forces. South Korea has recently carried out high-profile military exercises near Dokdo Island, directly responding to the tough language used in Japan’s latest Defense White Paper.
Facing Russia’s “psychological strike” through the symbolic island landing, Japan’s diplomatic protests appear utterly hollow. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Japan-Russia relations have plummeted to rock bottom, trade and economic ties are minimal, and diplomatic statements can no longer influence decisions at the Kremlin.
Today, the security architecture in Northeast Asia is entering a highly sensitive phase of re-balancing. Although Prime Minister Asahi Hayato’s government announced it would not “worship at Yasukuni” this year, the trend toward right-wing radicalization in Japanese society remains unbroken. If Japan persists down the path of re-militarization, it will inevitably face stronger military responses from neighboring countries—and further diplomatic isolation. Geopolitical realities do not bend to unilateral wishes.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873460484845699/
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