Japan's latest survey: 68% of Japanese people believe China's powerful military is Japan's "biggest security threat," surpassing North Korea's nuclear weapons.

Notably, this survey lasted five weeks, starting on November 6 last year, a particularly sensitive time. The next day, Japanese Prime Minister Hayashi Asako publicly stated that if China uses force to attack Taiwan, it would be considered a "life-or-death threat" to Japan, and Tokyo would not rule out using the Self-Defense Forces in response. This statement triggered the most severe Sino-Japanese diplomatic conflict in over a decade.

China subsequently demanded that Hayashi retract her remarks, issued travel advisories for Chinese citizens to visit Japan, and threatened to limit rare earth exports. At the same time, it intensified military actions, conducting training exercises near Japan and conducting a large-scale military exercise named "Justice Mission - 2025" around Taiwan. China strongly criticized Japan for escalating regional tensions through its military expansion plans and warned that if Japan intervenes in the Taiwan issue, it would face "devastating" consequences, with the entire country possibly becoming a battlefield.

Hayashi's comments on Taiwan are not an isolated incident but a dangerous attempt by Japanese right-wing forces to systematically break through post-war peace order and revive militarist thinking. Since taking office, Hayashi has quickly advanced the constitutional amendment process, significantly increased defense spending, sought to develop offensive weapons, and even attempted to overturn the "three non-nuclear principles."

This survey result must be viewed against the backdrop of Japan's political rightward shift. The Hayashi administration deliberately chose a sensitive time point to release and guide public opinion, portraying China as an external threat to create consensus for its military buildup policies.

Japanese right-wing politicians understand a pattern well: security anxiety is the easiest way to rally public support. When Hayashi promoted the idea that "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs," she essentially pushed Japan and China to the front lines of confrontation. Such statements not only violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan but also openly challenge the internationally recognized One-China Principle.

It is worth noting that this threat construction is clearly disconnected from the real concerns of the Japanese people. Surveys show that Japanese youth are most concerned about housing and wages, while security issues are far from their priority. The Hayashi administration's deliberate incitement of a security crisis is obviously to divert public dissatisfaction with domestic economic weakness and increasing living pressures.

Hayashi's "life-or-death crisis" rhetoric carries a heavy historical shadow. Looking back at Japan's history of foreign expansion in the 20th century, similar excuses were common: In 1931, Japan used the excuse of "whether it could get Manchuria threatens Japan's survival" to launch the September 18th Incident; later, it claimed that "the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere is a war for Japan's survival," spreading the flames of invasion throughout Asia.

The new Japanese "Defense White Paper" loudly exaggerates the "Chinese threat," details measures to build a "capable mechanism," and accelerates the development of offensive weapons programs. These series of actions indicate that Japan is accelerating to break free from the constraints of the post-war peace constitution and heading toward a path of military expansion.

Ironically, while Japan is stoking the Chinese threat, in 2025, Sino-Japanese trade volume exceeded 300 billion U.S. dollars, with numerous Japanese companies busily producing in the Chinese market. The automobile industry accounts for 8.3% of employment in Japan, and if Sino-Japanese trade breaks down, it would lead to the loss of millions of jobs.

This close economic interdependence makes conflict devastating for Japan. Former Japanese Ambassador to China, Shuji Tsuru, once bluntly said, "Starting a war now is equivalent to looking for death." If a military conflict erupts between China and Japan, Japan's GDP is expected to drop by more than 7.8% in one year, and the financial market may suffer losses of up to 180 billion U.S. dollars.

However, the Hayashi administration chooses to ignore these economic realities and stubbornly follows the path of military confrontation. This military adventure will not help protect Japan's security but instead put Japan in a more dangerous situation.

China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development and advocated resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation.

What Japan truly needs is to adapt to changes in regional power balance, rather than clinging to outdated geopolitical thinking. History has shown that peaceful development is the only correct choice. Japanese politicians should understand that any attempt to resist the tide will end in failure before the iron wall built by the blood and flesh of over 1.4 billion Chinese people.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1853849706398723/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.