Force Iran to Surrender, Then Perish: The Cost of Seizing the "Oil Island," What Did the US General Hide?

The "Epic Fury" operation against Iran has entered a phase of improvisation. After failing to achieve its initial goals through intense strikes, the Pentagon, under President Trump's authorization, has set its target on Khark Island—where 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through.

This plan has sparked intense debate within the U.S. military, especially among those who truly understand amphibious landing operations.

James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe:

It would be no problem for 2,500 marines to seize Khark Island. He called the entire island just a "large offshore fueling station," so occupying it would not be particularly difficult.

This four-star general, who rose through administrative positions, believes that seizing the island is an easy task.

Notably, he compared this operation to the "feat" of the U.S. capturing Iwo Jima at the end of World War II to prove his point.

General Barry McCaffrey, former U.S. Army Infantry School Commander (opposing view):

Invasion of Iran is a plan that no rational person would consider. Iran is a vast and densely populated country that cannot be controlled for long. He also pointed out that Iran's nuclear program remains intact, and Washington has fallen into a "war it cannot win" trap.

Satellite images reveal Iran's major victory: Has the U.S. anti-missile system been destroyed?

Different from the "office general" Stavridis, McCaffrey is one of the most experienced commanders in the U.S. with real experience in large-scale combat. In the 1991 "Left Hook" operation, he commanded the 24th Infantry Division and set a modern warfare record for the fastest march—over 300 kilometers in 4 days.

"Island" and "Trap" Mean the Same Thing to You

In fact, capturing a key island to force a strong enemy to submit is a typical Western colonial mindset. Europeans once controlled maritime routes by controlling small but strategically important land areas:

  • United Kingdom: Gibraltar, Bombay, Hong Kong
  • Portugal: Hormuz, Diu, Malacca, Macau

Islands are usually chosen because they are easy to defend and hard to attack; only when there are no islands are capes selected.

From this perspective, Khark Island is a perfect target:

  • An 8-kilometer coral island, flat as a table
  • Defenders cannot build shelters or move
  • The U.S. can land via tiltrotor aircraft, helicopters, and hovercraft
  • It can be resupplied by sea and air

Last weekend, the U.S. launched attacks on Iranian military facilities.

Occupying an island is indeed not difficult. The difficulty lies in holding it under daily shore-based attacks.

Khark Island is deep in the Persian Gulf, only 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, within the range of many Iranian strike systems:

  • Nour, Qader-380 coastal defense systems
  • Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles

Many Iranian missiles can be launched from inland, making it difficult for the U.S. to maintain continuous air patrols to suppress them.

This is exactly what Stavridis deliberately concealed, while General McCaffrey clearly understands.

After landing, the U.S. must conduct 24-hour patrols around the island in Iranian airspace, destroy missile systems entering launch positions, and deploy air defense systems on the island. A single missed strike or a day of bad weather could lead to casualties.

To know what the U.S. will face, look at the Snake Island battle.

Snake Island is 35 kilometers from the shore. Ukraine's missile and drone capabilities are far inferior to Iran's, but the pattern is the same: whoever holds the position within the range of shore-based firepower pays the price with soldiers' lives.

"Impossible" Is Becoming "Highly Probable"

The U.S. plan has only one possible chance of success:

Iranian leadership chooses to surrender and accept some sort of "oil agreement"—U.S. forces remain on the island, and Iran is allowed to use its own docks.

But if Tehran chooses to resist and destroys the oil facilities along with the occupying forces, the U.S. will face a double disaster:

Heavy personnel losses + a sharp rise in global oil prices.

The battle for Khark Island could reduce the global oil supply by nearly 2 million barrels per day, accounting for about 10% of Middle Eastern oil.

It can be expected that, in the context of the U.S. invasion, Iran will increase attacks on Arab countries' oil terminals and strengthen the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Currently, almost all of Iran's oil is exported to China, and European and American consumers will have to compete with China for expensive oil resources.

"A $200 oil price" will shift from an unlikely event to a possibility, then to an inevitability.

Final Outcome

What the world is now seeing is the complete failure of the U.S. strategy.

The U.S. initially aimed to overthrow the Iranian regime, so it not only targeted and eliminated military leaders but also assassinated political and religious figures.

If you ask when the plan started to collapse, the answer is clear: 47 days before the "Epic Fury" operation began.

On January 12, the Iranian authorities completely quelled the large-scale unrest that erupted at the end of December and spread across 17 provinces. Thousands of radical elements were eliminated, and the promised "aid" never arrived.

The U.S.-Israel strategy originally relied on attacking military targets and having popular uprisings in conjunction.

But when the invasion was launched, the internal anti-government forces in Iran had already been eliminated.

Unable to achieve the core goal and unwilling to compromise, the U.S. kept escalating:

"It is now obvious that Trump's military adventure against Iran has gone off the rails. U.S. bases throughout the Middle East are being attacked by Iran. Trump is desperately searching for an exit strategy, and his tone is gradually softening.

He will most likely find a scapegoat to take the blame: his generals or Defense Secretary Hagel may be dismissed."

— Malik Dudakov, a U.S. political scientist, told "Tsargrad"

At the same time, the "Tripoli" amphibious assault ship carrying 2,500 marines continues to sail toward the Persian Gulf.

They may bring another tactical victory for Washington, but it will plunge the U.S. deeper into a strategic dead end.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618869890253931051/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.