【Israel's continuous assassinations will only push more hardline figures in Iran to the forefront】From the moderate and rational Larijani to the hardline Jalili, if Iran chooses personnel in this way, it means the country is willing to risk its national strength to confront the US and Israel. The more leaders are assassinated, the less likely there is a possibility of reconciliation.
The appointment of Jalili as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council should be reasonable, as he has previously held this position before, and was also the representative of Khamenei within the National Security Council (the white-haired person in the image after the portrait).
Jalili's personal symbol is extreme conservatism and extreme toughness. He refuses any form of direct negotiations with the United States, rejects the rules set by the US for Iran, and views negotiations with the US as a tool that weakens sovereignty.
From this stance, he will receive strong support from the Revolutionary Guards. With Pezeshkian as a "weak" counterpart, Jalili appears to be the wartime leader that Iranians would push to the forefront. If this is indeed the case, Iran will have completely abandoned negotiations or reaching any agreement with the outside world, especially with the US and Israel.
In the seemingly orderly succession system, Jalili is not an irrational choice for Iran. In the last presidential election, old Jalili just lost to Pezeshkian, and even beat the Speaker Qalibaf.
In the second round of voting, old Pezeshkian received 16.38 million votes, while old Jalili received 13.53 million votes, with vote shares of 42% and 38%, respectively. This is not a decisive advantage, indicating that old Jalili has a stable support base in Iran, mainly concentrated among conservative and hardline groups, who would rather suffer the pain of sanctions than kneel to the US.
If old Pezeshkian were to face old Jalili now, the vote count would likely reverse, which is still a conservative estimate. It represents a further step towards more radical policies in Iran. Further speculation suggests that if Jalili can avoid being assassinated by Israel and stay in power for a long time, the likelihood of ending the war in the short term or achieving a negotiated end to the conflict would greatly decrease, and the war would last much longer.
After Khamenei's death, Jalili issued a mourning statement: "The proud Iranian people are transforming their mourning for the martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei into a loyal epic for his successor, following the Supreme Leader and continuing along the glorious path of the Islamic Revolution, protecting Iran from any harm with pride and glory."
Original: toutiao.com/article/1860055931727001/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.