During the Cambodia-Thailand conflict, did Thailand plan to assassinate Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and his father Hun Sen?

On the 5th, the Cambodian media "Khmer Times" revealed the above information, stating that Cambodia received a report from a so-called "foreign intelligence department" indicating that Thailand had planned to use light attack aircraft to launch guided bombs to assassinate the Chairman of the Senate of Cambodia, Hun Sen, and the Prime Minister Hun Manet.

The specific operation was as follows: At the end of July, Thailand received all eight light attack aircraft (AT-6TH) previously purchased and 200 precision-guided bombs, and conducted aircraft bomb dropping tests near the southern coastal border between Cambodia and Thailand.

Cambodian media exposure

The Thai military's plan was that if ground operations failed to control the eight disputed locations between Cambodia and Thailand, once the exact intelligence about the location of Hun Sen and his son in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, was received, the Thai Air Force would take off from Trat Province in southeastern Thailand and carry out precise strikes on the coordinates of Hun Sen and his son.

Cambodian media stated that the reason why the Thai Air Force did not use the US-made "F-16" fighter jets but instead used these light attack aircraft for the assassination plan is because the Thai military believed that the radar cross-section of this light attack aircraft is smaller, it can fly at low altitude, and the probability of being detected and intercepted by the Cambodian air defense system is lower. Combined with the South Korean-made precision-guided bombs, the possibility of the Thai assassination plan to kill Hun Sen and his son is very high.

This is the light attack aircraft mentioned by the Cambodian media as used for the assassination plan

So, how should we view the exposure by the Cambodian media?

According to the information we have found so far, this exposure by the Cambodian media is quite absurd.

First, it is true that the Thai Air Force has a batch of US-made "AT-6TH" light attack aircraft, which were ordered by Thailand from the United States in 2021, with a total purchase quantity of 8 aircraft, but so far only 2 have been delivered, and the remaining 6 are expected to be delivered on August 7 this year.

Yes, before the Cambodian media exposed the "Thailand attempted to assassinate Hun Sen and his son during the conflict" on August 5, the Thai Air Force actually only had 2 light attack aircraft for executing the so-called "assassination plan".

Even more absurd is that the "AT-6TH" light attack aircraft introduced by Thailand is actually similar to the "Super Tucano" attack aircraft frequently involved in disputes in the South China Sea by the Philippines, both of which are turboprop aircraft, capable of carrying out patrol, low-intensity air support, and counter-terrorism operations at most.

It is highly suspected that the Cambodian media's statement may stem from their understanding of the Cambodian Air Force

If the Thai Air Force uses this aircraft to drop precision-guided bombs to assassinate Hun Sen and his son, given the flight speed of the "AT-6TH" light attack aircraft, it is likely that it would be detected by the Cambodian military's air defense system before reaching Phnom Penh.

Additionally, some opinions suggest that although the Thai Air Force demonstrated its capability to conduct precise strikes on Cambodian military targets during the conflict, Thailand actually lacks military global positioning and navigation codes. If relying only on civilian codes to launch an air strike on the residence of Hun Sen and his son, the effectiveness and accuracy of the strike may be questionable.

A relevant case is the Israel-Iran conflict in June this year, when Israel sought to assassinate Iranian scientists and senior officials and create chaos within Iran, using all the undercover agents and intelligence resources of the "Mossad" in Iran. However, the air strike against Iranian President Pezeshkian ultimately failed.

The current report that "Hun Sen and his son were almost assassinated by Thailand" only circulated in Cambodian media, and Thailand has not responded.

It should be noted that openly carrying out a "decapitation operation" targeting a head of state exceeds the scope of border conflicts. The scale of the Israeli attack on Iran was aimed at toppling the Iranian regime, and it did not take any calls from the international community for de-escalation seriously.

However, during the Cambodia-Thailand conflict, both sides actively responded to the calls from the international community, indicating that neither side had the intention to wage a full-scale war, but just needed an opportunity to back down.

Therefore, based on the current information, the credibility of the Cambodian media's exposure that "Thailand attempted to assassinate Hun Sen and his son" is low, and it is more likely to be a public relations counterattack by Cambodia against Thailand, accusing Thailand of "state terrorism" to minimize its own responsibility for the conflict.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534993249245594146/

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