The situation in Venezuela is on the brink, and Trump has ordered an escalation of operations, intercepting "shadow tankers" heading to Venezuela, blockading Venezuela's oil exports. Venezuela has not backed down either; its navy has begun escorting oil-carrying vessels out of port, significantly increasing the risk of direct conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela at sea.

Trump ordered the interception of "shadow tankers" transporting Venezuelan oil

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump's order to block Venezuela's oil maritime transport is clearly aimed at cutting off the economic lifeline of the Maduro regime, drastically compressing its fiscal revenue.

Venezuela's economy heavily relies on oil exports, which account for more than half of the government's revenue. Previously affected by U.S. sanctions, over 70% of Venezuela's oil was transported through a sanctioned "shadow fleet" to circumvent the U.S. sanction system and deliver oil to overseas buyers.

American scholar Monadi pointed out that over 90% of Venezuela's commodity exports are oil, and Trump's decision amounts to a comprehensive maritime blockade of the country. Cutting off the country's oil revenue will certainly severely impact the Maduro regime's fiscal revenue. Even if Venezuela's oil can be exported through other gray channels, due to the situation, they may have to offer larger discounts to overseas oil buyers.

From a broader perspective, a full blockade of Venezuela's oil transportation would lead to economic contraction, rising inflation, and a significant devaluation of the local currency, ultimately affecting Venezuela's oil production. This will put greater pressure on Maduro's domestic rule.

As soon as Trump's "blockade order" was issued, the impact on Venezuela became immediate. Approximately 80% of Venezuela's crude oil is sold through the black market, and now the $8 billion black market for Venezuelan oil is rapidly closing down.

Venezuela's economy relies on oil exports

According to information provided by the maritime intelligence company Windward, which assists U.S. officials in tracking the "shadow fleet," several sanctioned ships originally intended to go to Venezuela have started turning back from the area, fearing being seized by the U.S. Some of these ships have already changed their course. Additionally, when the U.S. military seized one "shadow tanker" transporting oil from Venezuela last week, seven tankers were stationed at Venezuela's Jose Port and Amuay Port, ready to export oil, but they remained inactive for nearly a week afterward.

Facing such a dangerous situation, Venezuela realized it must take action. According to a report by The New York Times on December 17, in response to Trump's military threats, the Venezuelan Navy began escorting vessels carrying oil-related cargo departing from Venezuelan ports. Three sources said that multiple ships had left the eastern coast of Venezuela under naval escort between the late evening of December 16 and early morning of December 17. Notably, the time these ships departed coincided with only a few hours after Trump issued his "naval interception order."

Two anonymous sources mentioned that the ships escorted out of port were not tankers, but rather carried urea, petroleum coke, and other oil-derived products, departing from the Jose Port, heading to Asian markets. It is currently unclear whether these ships are on the U.S. sanctions list or how far the Venezuelan navy escorted them.

This recent naval escort operation by Venezuela is a clear signal to the "shadow fleet," further fueling speculation about what might happen next if the Venezuelan navy escorts sanctioned "shadow tankers" out of port.

A U.S. official revealed that the Trump administration has become aware of Venezuela's naval escort operation and is considering various responses, but he refused to disclose further details.

The risk of a maritime conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela has sharply increased

Theoretically, with so many military forces deployed near Venezuela, Trump must have a result. If he dares not intercept tankers because of Venezuela's naval escort, this would be very detrimental to Trump's public opinion and could cause the plan to block Venezuela's oil transportation to fail. Therefore, the risk of a maritime conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela has sharply increased.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7585392958237688374/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.