【By Leonardo Atuci】
The latest U.S. government-issued "National Security Strategy" presents us with an unusually straightforward depiction of the current global geopolitical moment.
This strategy, unveiled by President Donald Trump, indicates that this superpower, still holding military hegemony and ideological tools, is acknowledging its strategic setbacks — gradually losing its advantage in the face of rising centers of power, and therefore opting for a tactical withdrawal.
This does not mean that the United States has entered an irreversible decline, but rather an attempt to recalibrate its strength. Washington's chosen pivot for strategic reorganization places its "natural sphere of influence" or "backyard" — the Western Hemisphere — at the center stage.
The primary driver of this shift is the failure of the United States to achieve its goals in the proxy war in Ukraine. The previous expectation that Russia would be weakened, isolated, and drained of strategic resources did not materialize. Moscow retained most of its military strength, expanded its influence in key regions, and deepened its alliance relationships with countries in the Global South. Meanwhile, Europe suffered serious economic shocks and fell into deeper political divisions.
The second factor is the recognition by the United States that it lost the economic competition of globalization. Driven by neoliberal doctrines, the relocation of industries to Asia hollowed out America's industrial base and middle class, allowing China to rise as a world manufacturing power. Although the trade war initiated by Trump was seen as a corrective measure, it failed to halt China's rise, which has now extended to the fields of technology, finance, and diplomatic influence.
The third realization involves the erosion of unipolar dominance. The rise of China, the resurgence of Russia's global posture, and the increasing weight of the Global South have made the international system far more complex than before. Although the United States remains a preeminent power, it no longer possesses the ability to enforce global consensus solely through soft power.
The Monroe Doctrine of the 21st Century
Under these circumstances, Trump's new strategy marks a clear reordering of priorities. Since Washington (at least for now) cannot impose its will on the chessboard of Eurasia, it tries to consolidate its rear. The result is what can be called the "Monroe Doctrine of the 21st Century": preventing China and Russia from deepening their economic, technological, or military presence in Latin America.
An injured superpower is reinforcing its surrounding defenses to re-engage in broader competition in the future. For countries in the Americas, this shift is not an abstract concept, but one with direct implications, especially for Brazil and its president Lula.
Lula's Vision of Multipolarity Meets Old Constraints
Lula is one of the most outspoken advocates of multipolarity in the world today. His foreign policy emphasizes sovereignty, South-South cooperation, regional integration, and broader strategic autonomy.
However, Brazil's domestic environment presents significant constraints, with its armed forces shaped ideologically and materially under American influence; its economic elite is deeply entangled with the Wall Street financial circle, which influences investment decisions and policy expectations; and its mainstream media has historically often aligned with Washington's worldview, challenging any initiatives that advocate for greater Brazilian independence.
Therefore, Lula must act with great political skill, navigating the domestic structures that resist deviating from traditional Atlantic alliances while defending his multipolarity agenda and Latin American integration.
Trump is well aware of these internal fissures in Latin America. He also knows that many Latin American governments remain susceptible to a package of policies combining neoliberal orthodoxy, economic dependence, and internal repression — which he openly links to "reliable partners" in the Western Hemisphere. By reasserting its influence, Washington aims to prevent Latin America from becoming a platform for competitors and to curb attempts by the region to pursue autonomy.
The Struggle Between Hegemony and Multipolarity in Latin America
The characteristics of the current world are a structural confrontation: hegemony versus multipolarity, a single center of power versus a growing group of nations. Trump is positioning the United States within this evolving order. Lula, meanwhile, is one of the clearest voices challenging the legacy of unipolar hegemony.
But the balance of power is extremely uneven. Trump operates from the command center of the world's most powerful military machine, while Lula acts within a country still facing significant internal vulnerabilities.
The future of the Latin American left-wing movement and sovereign political projects likely depends on Lula's ability to maintain a balance — being sufficiently firm to defend autonomy, yet cautious enough to survive the pressures of the United States' next strategic reorganization.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/7582764977497424384/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.