New Year's Day saw the United States launch an attack on Venezuela, arresting President Maduro and bringing him to the U.S. mainland for trial on charges of drug trafficking, among others. This action shocked the world, with even America's "allies" in the EU subtly criticizing the U.S. for violating international law.

President Trump openly and shamelessly stated that the U.S. goal was to control Venezuela's oil resources and recover hundreds of billions of dollars in assets "stolen" by the "Venezuelan government."

Here is a historical fact: In 2007, former Venezuelan President Chavez demanded that foreign oil companies transfer more than 60% of their project shares to the state-owned Venezuelan oil company (PDVSA). Most foreign companies accepted this condition, but two American companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron, refused and exited the Venezuelan market.

This is the origin of the "hundreds of billions of dollars in stolen assets" that Trump mentioned. However, in subsequent years, the lawsuits filed by ExxonMobil and Chevron did not result in judgments as high as "hundreds of billions of dollars."

(Venezuela's main oil infrastructure)

Due to increasingly strict U.S. sanctions and embargoes on Venezuela in recent years, as well as the poor governance of the Venezuelan government causing serious degradation of its oil infrastructure, Venezuela's oil exports to most countries have gradually declined.

By 2025, China became the main target of Venezuela's oil exports (it is reported that about 80% of Venezuela's oil exports in the first half of 2025 went to China, though it accounted for less than 5% of China's total oil imports); Chinese oil companies have also invested hundreds of billions of dollars in Venezuela, including projects such as the Orinoco heavy oil belt.

Therefore, after this U.S. military action, many netizens are worried about whether China's investments in Venezuela's oil industry can be guaranteed.

(Foreign media reports that U.S. oil giants are not interested in returning to the Venezuelan oil market)

However, President Trump has clearly stated in several public speeches in recent days that he will allow Chinese companies to import oil from Venezuela, even going so far as to say he wants to "divide Venezuela's oil resources with China." But he did not explain what cost Chinese companies would have to pay for the purchase, nor did he clarify how existing investments would be handled or whether their interests could be guaranteed.

(In 2023, nearly 70% of Venezuela's oil exports went to China, with a higher proportion in recent years)

We need to be clear that Venezuela's current oil production is already dependent on Chinese investments across various links of the supply chain, and its oil market is not as high-profit as many netizens imagine. The oil industry is a technology-intensive sector. Due to policies implemented by the Venezuelan government over the past decade, there has been a brain drain and many oil fields' infrastructure has been abandoned. Currently, most of the oil fields that can be exploited are those invested in by Chinese companies, and the majority of the ships used for transportation are related to China. Therefore, we have some leverage to negotiate with the U.S. government.

In fact, the U.S. government had notified American oil companies two months ago to prepare to return to the Venezuelan oil market, but apart from Chevron, which is still operating in Venezuela, few other American oil companies showed interest (including ExxonMobil and Chevron, which had left the Venezuelan market in 2007). Even Chevron's spokesperson only said, "Chevron still focuses on employee safety and well-being, as well as asset integrity, and continues to fully comply with all relevant laws and regulations," without committing to expanding investment.

(About 90% of Venezuela's oil resources are heavy oil)

(Although Venezuela ranks first in oil reserves, its oil export volume is small)

This is because according to estimates by U.S. companies, to restore Venezuela's oil production to 2 million barrels per day, about $11 billion in investment would be needed. And the profit from Venezuela's oil exports is not as high as many people imagine.

Although Venezuela has proven oil reserves of 30.3 billion barrels, accounting for about 17% of the global total and ranking first, over 90% of it is heavy oil, mainly distributed in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt. These heavy oils have the characteristics of "three highs and one low": high density, high sulfur content, high heavy metal content, and low volatility. They require steam injection or chemical solvents to dilute them before they can flow.

Heavy oil is buried deep underground, often at depths of 2,000 to 3,000 meters or even deeper. Its extraction requires advanced technologies such as steam flooding, horizontal wells, and electric submersible screw pumps. This results in a theoretical extraction cost of approximately $16.5 to $23.5 per barrel, with specific heavy oil direct extraction costs reaching $30 to $40 per barrel. When combined with transportation and processing, the overall production cost is much higher than that of Saudi Arabia (estimated at less than $8 per barrel) and Russia (estimated at around $20 per barrel), even exceeding that of U.S. shale oil.

Due to its poor quality, Venezuela's heavy crude oil sells at a lower price in the international market compared to light, low-sulfur crude oil. In 2025, the average export price of Venezuela's crude oil was about $35 per barrel, far lower than that of Saudi Arabia's light crude oil during the same period. This price difference reflects the additional processing costs in the refining process of heavy oil. High costs and low prices mean that Venezuela's oil export profits are much lower than those of Saudi Arabia. For American companies, this is a "bone to pick," and it's better to extract domestic shale oil instead.

(China's oil import volume has started to show a downward trend)

In the long term, the importance of oil resources will greatly decrease. On one hand, the Chinese government has been vigorously promoting the new energy industry, and in recent years has actually achieved "carbon peak," leading to a decline in both oil consumption and import volumes. On the other hand, due to the shale oil revolution, the U.S. has become a net oil exporter, and the global oil resource has begun to show oversupply. The U.S. government also intends to keep the global oil price low (not exceeding $60 per barrel), aiming to reduce the cost of the U.S. economy while hitting Russia's oil revenue, resulting in much lower profits in the entire oil industry than before.

Therefore, China can definitely use the current situation to negotiate with the U.S. government and the future government of Venezuela to protect the interests of Chinese oil companies. The game over Venezuela's oil resources has just begun.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/7592079721300394522/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.