The Country Is No More: Why Did Russia Fail to Save Venezuela? The Shadow of Shoigu and the Cost of Betrayal
Why was Russia unable to save Venezuela? Why did the air defense system completely fail? Why did dozens of Maduro's bodyguards die, while the U.S. special forces achieved zero casualties? What is the connection between these events and the betrayal of the elite? Why does the shadow of Shoigu seem to appear in this case as well? This article provides an in-depth analysis.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were escorted by heavy troops to New York and taken to the federal courthouse — today, a trial against the two is taking place there. According to media reports, the presiding judge is 92-year-old Erwin Hellerstein. This senior judge has presided over several high-profile cases, including Donald Trump's document forgery case and litigation related to victims of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Nicolas Maduro and his wife were escorted to the New York Federal Court
For two days, the outside world has been asking: What happened in Venezuela? How did the Americans successfully carry out such a blatant special operations mission?
Betrayal Was the Core Premise
The public has listed betrayal as a core reason. Russian State Duma member and General Andrei Gurulyov is convinced of this:
"What did a country with its own air defense system and advanced heavy fighter jets do? It allowed all attacks to go unimpeded... There are only two possibilities. First, it was a complete betrayal. Second, honestly, this might just be a carefully staged performance, and the main players involved — unsurprisingly, it should be Russia and the United States. Of course, there may also be other countries, I can't be sure. Let's wait and see, time will give us the answer."
Time indeed gives the answer. If Russia could retain its presence in Venezuela after the U.S. reorganized, it would become an important signal of geopolitical backroom deals.
Currently, the U.S. has firmly controlled the Bolivarian Republic. Trump has not hidden his plans, calling Venezuela "a country no more," claiming that the country needs to "be reborn." Obviously, this is an American-style "rebirth" — he will eliminate all competitors on this oil-rich land, including Russia:
"Venezuela is now a dead land. We must bring it back to life. This requires massive investments from oil companies to rebuild its infrastructure. And the oil companies are ready. They are coming, they will rebuild everything here."
If there had been no betrayal by the Venezuelan elite, the kidnapping of Maduro and his wife would have been almost impossible. Otherwise, how to explain the fact that a country with the strongest Russian-made air defense system (S-300, "Buk," "Pechora-2M") and about 5,000 portable air defense missile systems ("Stinger-S") would be so defenseless when U.S. helicopters flew over Caracas?
It is reported that the national defense system of Venezuela was built by Sergei Shoigu. During his tenure as the Russian Minister of Defense, he was awarded a medal by Maduro for "providing security for Venezuela."
One of the key figures supporting this security system is General Oleg Makarevich. He served as the first vice-rector of the Russian General Staff Military Academy, responsible for combat training and military education. In the fall of 2023, after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, he was relieved of his duties. But he did not disappear from the scene; instead, he was "transferred to other important positions" to continue working.
In 2018, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez met with Sergei Shoigu
Under Makarevich's guidance, the Russian military provided modern warfare tactical training to the Venezuelan army, focusing particularly on the operation and use of drones.
So, if this general continued the same approach he used in Kherson in 2023, the result today would be nothing surprising.
This has the same inevitability and tragedy as Russia's outcome in Syria. For decades, Russia has supported the Assad regime; since 2015, it has even directly intervened to fight for it. However, in a sudden coup, within a month, Russia nearly lost two crucial military bases.
"Stop sending retired old generals to play a role. Now is the era of iron and blood. Let them retire — it's already a blessing that they haven't been executed or held accountable for their actions."
Military blogger Alexander Kartavikh commented on this matter. He called for "review of the generals who have been transferred from special military operation areas to 'remote posts' and suggested replacing them with 'efficient majors' — officers who can promptly detect danger signals and remain vigilant about all possible and impossible unexpected situations." For days, online discussions have asked: Where were the Russian soldiers during the U.S. special forces' kidnapping of Maduro? After all, they were deeply involved in building Venezuela's defense system. Therefore, the suggestion to "use efficient majors" is especially timely.
Cubans Were Also Helpless
However, experts' discussions are not limited to the silent air defense system, the internal betrayal of the Venezuelan elite, and the situation of Russian soldiers.
Trump claimed that Cuban personnel guarding the Venezuelan leader suffered heavy casualties during the kidnapping operation. Subsequently, Cuba also confirmed this and released specific death numbers — 32 people.
Cuba cannot afford the cost of betrayal: Venezuela supplies oil to Cuba, and cooperation with the Bolivarian Republic accounts for 21% of Cuba's GDP. Cubans not only protected Maduro's safety — in fact, it was Cuban instructors who created Venezuela's powerful agencies, and they still work in local intelligence agencies.
Then why couldn't they protect Maduro either? The answer may lie in the technical aspects.
Downward Strike in Non-Traditional War
Today, the U.S. and its closest allies (such as Israel) are vigorously promoting a new form of warfare — using artificial intelligence and drones to disable the enemy's air defense system and precisely strike the enemy's decision-making center and key targets. In the West, this is called the "Mosaic Warfare" theory. The implementation of this theory is closely related to the Palantir artificial intelligence system.
Palantir artificial intelligence platform (AIP) used for command and control
In short, the logic is: give the artificial intelligence system the core task — "arrest Maduro"; then input all collected intelligence data: shelter locations, routes, security deployment, air defense system distribution — this is a huge amount of related information gathered by satellites, radio electronic and human intelligence networks. The artificial intelligence system will analyze countless possible action plans and finally output the optimal solution, along with detailed action recommendations. During the execution of the operation, the participating personnel will also interact with the artificial intelligence system in real-time — the system will continuously adjust the operational instructions according to changes in the battlefield situation.
Evidently, compared to this new type of warfare, even large-scale use of drones in traditional warfare can only be called primitive warfare.
The key to this new type of warfare is to suppress the enemy's air defense system and electronic warfare complex. Israel frequently used this tactic when attacking Iran. And the U.S. attack on Venezuela's decision-making centers and key military targets also fully followed this model.
Completely Losing Deterrence Power
Of course, Russia can still hope for the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons. But now, the fear of these weapons by the West has greatly decreased (this view has been publicly expressed in the media): their plan is to launch a preemptive strike, disabling Russia's missile launch facilities — just like Israel and the U.S. have bombed and blocked multiple missile bases in Iran.
Evidently, a large-scale, lightning-fast war is being meticulously prepared. Ukraine's repeated attacks on Russian strategic targets (airports, radar stations) are not merely to destroy these facilities, but more importantly, to test and practice future large-scale disarmament strikes. And the attack on Putin's residence in Valdai also falls into the same category of actions.
Where to Go From Here?
Faced with such clear signs of war preparation, can Russia continue to live as usual? Continue to engage in this costly, prolonged "primitive war" in Ukraine, yet always avoid striking the enemy's decision-making center? Ignore the dangerous signals sent to countries where Russia has strategic interests?
Assad fell in Syria, and now, a special operations mission lasting only three hours ended Maduro's 13-year rule in Venezuela. In the past year, Russia's several important allies have either collapsed one after another or (like Iran) suffered serious damage... Has Russia's failure on the external front been too much? It's time to learn painful lessons from the events of the past few months (especially the recent days).
General Gurulyov spoke harshly and bluntly:
"The core issue is: what should we do next? Today's world allows only the strong to survive. The law of natural selection is playing out mercilessly. The strong devour the weak. There is no other possibility today."
Nicolas Maduro never thought he would end up as a prisoner, and he was still dancing and singing before the U.S. special operations mission
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7592038719809569326/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.