Amid the United States' increasing economic, political, and military pressure on Cuba, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has analyzed five possible scenarios in which the U.S. might use force against Cuba. Scenario one is a campaign of pressure—continuing current policies by restricting oil imports to pressure the Cuban regime into accepting major reforms. This primarily relies on an economic attrition strategy, which is militarily easy to execute. The political challenge lies in managing inbound vessels attempting to breach blockades and avoiding the perception of the U.S. as an imperial bully. Scenario two involves internal collapse within Cuba, triggering a humanitarian crisis and power vacuum, forcing the U.S. to intervene to restore order. Although the Cuban regime exhibits strong resilience, sudden collapse cannot be ruled out entirely. Should the U.S. seek full occupation and stabilization of Cuba, it would require approximately 100,000 foreign troops proportionally—a scenario highly unlikely under the Trump administration. Scenario three is a decapitation strike: using special forces or precision strikes to capture or eliminate top Cuban leaders. Such operations would be extremely difficult, requiring high-quality intelligence. Even if successful, the Cuban Communist Party and military structure are robust; the removal of a single individual is unlikely to cause systemic collapse, potentially provoking even more hardened retaliation. Scenario four is limited air strikes—conducting airstrikes against Cuban military and intelligence targets to pressure the government and weaken its capacity to resist. The U.S. possesses this capability, but political challenges remain: if the Cuban government continues resistance after air strikes, airstrikes alone cannot overthrow the regime. Scenario five is accidental escalation—an unexpected event such as a misfire or unauthorized attack triggering direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Cuba, with both sides possibly misjudging the situation leading to uncontrollable escalation. The least likely outcome is a full-scale U.S. invasion, as Cuba could wage urban and guerrilla warfare, requiring the U.S. at minimum several months to prepare an invasion force of at least 100,000 personnel. In summary, the U.S. lacks a clear “theory of change.” In the worst-case scenario, the U.S. could become trapped in a military stalemate, endangering both American troops and Cuban civilians, without achieving regime change, democratic transition, or economic recovery.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867130454701194/
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