【Where is Trump superior to Bush Jr.?】After the recent escalation, Trump suddenly announced the termination of the memorandum of understanding, believing it has already been nullified.
Iranian decision-makers now face three strategic choices:
First: Continue current policies—maintaining the status quo by not actually implementing the memorandum while persistently violating ceasefire agreements. This means gradually retreating on the implementation of the memorandum, while firmly retaliating against any violations, as has been done so far.
Second: Engage in broader confrontation, seeking battlefield gains that can later be converted into political outcomes at the negotiating table. Under this scenario, Iran would respond to any military action with unprecedented intensity, attempting to transform "American targets" into "Iranian objectives," thereby forcing Trump to acknowledge the new reality imposed by war.
Third: Accept the outcome of war and retreat without taking on additional burdens. Iran would strictly implement the memorandum step by step, exchanging commitments for commitments, avoiding any further escalation.
Regardless of which path unfolds, strength remains essential.
Otherwise, it becomes a fourth possibility: Trump gets to decide. But that is not Iran’s option.
What are Trump’s real choices and intentions?
One: Engage in an expensive confrontation;
Two: Accept Iran’s demands—a political disaster for Trump, but he could spin a dead horse into a living one; he has the rhetorical skill to do just that.
On his way back from concluding the NATO summit, Trump told reporters that Iran had just called him, expressing hope to return to the “agreement.” “They are very eager to reach an agreement… I just don’t know whether they’re worth it, or whether they’ll abide by it. That’s the issue.”
Yesterday, media counted that he repeated “Iran must not have nuclear weapons” over 60 times—feeling more like the post-9/11 Bush-era rhetoric of Middle East wars, lies, and war-driven economics, rather than genuine concern about Iran possessing nuclear weapons, akin to the false claims about Iraq’s WMDs.
There’s one thing he’ll never say aloud: bombing Iran. Oil prices surge again, stock markets fall—creating new buying opportunities.
After this cycle ends, he’ll launch another round. This is where Trump surpasses Bush Jr.—Bush played only one wave.
Old Trump can ride multiple cycles.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870202589617164/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.