Two battle lines suffered complete defeats, the U.S. suffered its biggest strategic blunder since World War II, and it's time for China to dump US Treasury bonds.

Trump has been in office for less than 100 days and has suffered complete defeats on both fronts. First, he said he would end the Ukraine-Russia war, but Zelenskyy humiliated him at the White House, saying that small-scale ceasefires and no attacks on each other's energy facilities were agreed upon, but then a Ukrainian drone penetrated deep into Russian territory, once again slapping Trump in the face. The current situation is that the U.S. urgently wants Ukraine and Russia to end the war, but both sides are unwilling to compromise due to their significant differences, so they are not in a hurry. The U.S. is already losing patience with the stalled negotiations. Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday that the current negotiation over the Ukraine-Russia issue has reached a critical moment, and if one side makes the negotiations very difficult, the U.S. will no longer mediate. Unable to handle the Ukraine-Russia war, Trump had to start another round of global tariffs, but now it can be described as a mess. Even Japan, which has always been compliant with the U.S., has begun to resist. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/f65d8ca3d1644147a14240693a3a5a98~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1745724224&x-signature=bepXesIlW8T3y1DRBWmehUo%2B8ks%3D" / > Trump has been saying that he is waiting for China to call, but the result is that China completely ignores Trump. What is the situation now? After nearly 400 U.S. slaughterhouses lost their export qualifications to China, Brazil has expressed its intention to "offer itself" to China, becoming an alternative supplier to meet China's beef demand. American soybeans may also lose the Chinese market forever. Not only that, China has started to suspend the acceptance of Boeing passenger aircraft, and the export control of medium-heavy rare earth directly strangles the vital points of the U.S. military industry chain and high-end industries. After going through all this, Trump finally discovered a big problem: under the global tariff war, not only has no country submitted, but the Federal Reserve is also uncooperative with interest rate cuts. In the case of high inflation, the U.S. economy could collapse at any time. The two defeats can be considered the biggest strategic blunder of the U.S. since World War II, directly shaking the foundation of the dollar system. If there is any fluctuation in U.S. Treasury bonds, the collapse of the entire dollar financial hegemony and order is just around the corner, which no American government can accept. Because the essence of the dollar is a credit system built on hegemony. The credit foundation of the dollar is not based on industrial and agricultural output, nor is it based on America's past financial credibility. America's own credibility is not good enough to support the dollar. When America abandoned the gold exchange, if it was any other currency, it would have collapsed immediately, but the dollar not only continued to exist but became increasingly powerful. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/a1f04f5f9ab84e3194c073cc4146bfe0~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1745724224&x-signature=XEeoK1EDdmEcwcuHrjzH4hm8KD8%3D" / > Why is this? Actually, the reason is simple: it's not that the world trusts the dollar, but that the world has no other choice. You have no other choice but to choose the dollar. Therefore, if there is still no widely recognized currency to replace the dollar in the world, a large-scale sale of U.S. Treasury bonds could trigger the collapse of the dollar system, affecting the entire global economic market. However, after the tariff war began, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly in a short period of time due to massive sales by holding countries, causing noticeable interest rate fluctuations, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate also experienced intense volatility, which was truly perilous. Later, it was found during the post-mortem that the root cause was the tariff war. A Japanese investment institution triggered a plunge in its U.S. stock holdings due to Trump's trade war policies, and was forced to liquidate U.S. Treasury bonds to cover losses. As for whether China sold, the U.S. is strongly denying it. Of course, these are only part of the reasons. The main reason is that the U.S. has about $6 trillion in debt that will mature in June this year. If the debt cannot be refinanced or can only be auctioned at high interest rates, the result will only be either quick death or slow death. The short-term pressure of debt refinancing is unprecedented. Offending creditors is not a solution. This is also the conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve, and the reason why Trump initiated the tariff war, which is to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve is unwilling to cut interest rates. Since this is the case, it means that Trump's tariff war has failed. Now the U.S. has to bear the financial, economic, and political impacts brought by the tariff war. < img src = "https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/f475dfa47e2d40e097b450da4da3b4b9~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1745724224&x-signature=W1oTqaEqMHlfo7UvYd1Mx547Frs%3D" / > Since the Federal Reserve cannot handle it, Trump wants China to back down. After all, China led the resistance. China's countermeasures have had a huge impact on the U.S. If China sells U.S. Treasury bonds later, it would be equivalent to detonating U.S. Treasury bonds entirely. So Trump wants to resolve the issue with China. But the result is obvious: China simply ignores Trump. In fact, the Trump administration lacks sincerity in negotiations. According to reports from Bloomberg citing sources, dozens of countries are seeking tariff reductions or exemptions from the U.S. In return, the U.S. is prepared to require these countries to take measures to limit China's manufacturing strength to prevent China from circumventing Trump's tariff policy. China naturally understands this, and therefore, it is also time for China to sell U.S. Treasury bonds, adding more fuel to America's pot, directly igniting America's economy and making it preoccupied with its own troubles. Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495218274532065831/ Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone. Please express your attitude by clicking the [Like/Dislike] button below.