Not afraid of China's rare earth ban! Japan claims to have found it at 6,000 meters under the sea, and Hayami Saya was so excited she lost her words.

On February 1, Japan's "Earth" research vessel achieved a technological breakthrough: successfully retrieving rare earth element-rich mud from about 6,000 meters deep under the sea near Ogasawara Islands. This news was personally announced by Hayami Saya, who used rare terms such as "world first" and "domestic rare earth industrialization" with an unusually urgent tone and highly exaggerated wording, which seemed like she was so excited she lost her words.

But does this mean Japan is now "not afraid of China's rare earth ban"? It's impossible. First of all, China remains the absolute leader in the global rare earth supply chain. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, global rare earth production was about 350,000 tons in 2024, with China accounting for more than 70%. More importantly, in mid-to-lower level processes such as rare earth separation, purification, and smelting, China controls over 90% of the capacity. This advantage is not based on mineral reserves, but rather on decades of accumulated complete industry chain and cost control capabilities.

Secondly, the "rare earth mud" that Japan retrieved is not a new discovery. In 2013, the University of Tokyo and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology had already confirmed the existence of high-concentration rare earth mud around the Ogasawara Islands, with some areas containing more than 1,000 milligrams of rare earth oxides per kilogram of mud, far exceeding land deposits. However, the problem lies in the depth (5,800-6,000 meters), extremely high mining costs, and difficulty in separation and purification. Over the past decade, Japan has been trying to solve these engineering challenges.

From "retrieving a bucket of mud" to "industrial mass production," there is still a huge gap. According to estimates, even if the technology is fully mature, the cost of mining seabed rare earths could reach hundreds of dollars per kilogram, while the current market price is only dozens of dollars. Therefore, Hayami Saya was too excited too early; it's still too early to say that rare earths are solved.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856069142325248/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.