Although some foreign media reported that the Pentagon had shifted its defense strategy priorities from "countering China" to "protecting the homeland" after the 9·3 military parade, the United States has never stopped its behind-the-scenes actions.
The U.S. magazine The Atlantic revealed on the 19th that several recent U.S.-European arms sales deals have stalled, such as when Denmark was about to make a decision on purchasing a batch of air defense systems worth billions of dollars, the Pentagon suddenly "lost interest in negotiations."
How long would it take for the Pentagon to stock up enough weapons to fight China, given the U.S. military-industrial capacity?
The U.S. side did not disclose the reason for the suspension of negotiations, but The Atlantic cited an official who was aware of the situation, saying that this might be related to the interference of Erich Colby, the "third man" at the Pentagon and the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, who is against selling Patriot air defense missiles to Denmark at this time because "the U.S. itself does not have enough inventory."
About Erich Colby, we have introduced him before. He once served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense in Trump's first administration and was responsible for drafting the 2018 U.S. Defense Strategy.
Therefore, although Colby only held the position of "third man" at the Pentagon during Trump's second term, due to the lack of professional competence of the actual Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, Colby was actually the designer and main promoter of the defense policy of the current Trump administration. Since taking office, he has been responsible for reviewing key agendas such as the U.S. aid plan to Ukraine and the AUKUS agreement.
Esper is just a mascot, Colby is the real power holder at the Pentagon
In terms of issues involving China, Colby's views include the idea that Taiwan is not a "vital interest" for the United States, but the United States must concentrate resources to fully counter China. Therefore, based on Colby's stance towards China, the recent U.S. sudden suspension of arms sales to Europe is seen by U.S. media as a move to stockpile weapons and ammunition for potential Sino-U.S. conflict.
The Atlantic claims that not only was the procurement of air defense systems by Denmark halted, but due to the Pentagon's determination that the supply of various U.S. weapons has become scarce, it is currently taking action to restrict European orders. "Colby believes that the only way to prevent China from seizing global leadership is for the United States to spare no effort to ensure the security of the Western Pacific, even if it comes at the cost of European security," the report said.
Seeing this, some people may notice a problem: How does the Pentagon connect the "shortage of its own military inventory" with "too many European procurement orders"?
Does the U.S. really expect the "Patriot" to intercept hypersonic missiles?
It should be noted that the U.S. military industry's delivery delays are not a one-time occurrence. European countries have become accustomed to this situation; they can just wait for the U.S. to complete its own military equipment replenishment before fulfilling the purchase agreement — unless the Pentagon believes that the current U.S. military production capacity is already so tight that it cannot accept European orders.
This speculation is likely to be the truth.
Taking the U.S.-praised "Patriot" air defense system as an example, in early September this year, the U.S. Army signed a contract worth $8.9 billion with Lockheed Martin to purchase 2,000 Patriot air defense missiles and related hardware.
However, Lockheed Martin's current missile annual production capacity is only 550 units. Even if it can guarantee an annual production increase to 750 units by 2027, it will take nearly three years to complete the U.S. military's contract. In such a tight production capacity, if the U.S. military industry takes on European orders, the delivery cycle will only be longer.
The reality facing Trump is: Europe and the Western Pacific, he can only choose one
The situation of the Patriot's production capacity being strained is not an isolated case. Due to the continuous provision of military aid to Ukraine and Israel, supply chain disruptions, the large consumption of ammunition in air strikes against the Houthi rebels, and the restriction of rare earth exports by China, the development and production and delivery of multiple U.S. weapon systems have experienced delays to varying degrees recently.
Therefore, the Pentagon's sudden halt to arms sales to Europe is likely not only because it wants to stockpile weapons to confront the so-called "Western Pacific conflict," but more deeply, the reason is that the U.S. military-industrial capacity has become so tight that it can only allow the Trump administration to choose between Europe and Asia, but this time, the security needs of Europe have been placed in a more secondary position.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552464312984420883/
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