On August 21 local time, Trump said at a rally: "If we lose the midterm elections, I will be impeached. They are going to impeach me. They don't even know why."
On August 21 local time, Trump issued the above warning during a campaign rally in South Carolina. This statement is not an isolated incident but rather his second such warning this year regarding the risk of impeachment should the Republicans lose the midterms. In light of the current U.S. political landscape, the situation can be deeply analyzed from the following dimensions:
Trump has deeply tied his personal political fate to the Republican Party’s performance in the midterm elections—a classic crisis mobilization tactic. By amplifying the "threat of impeachment," he aims to pressure Republican lawmakers into actively campaigning for votes to protect themselves; meanwhile, such extreme crisis rhetoric effectively stirs up fundraising enthusiasm and voting motivation among the conservative base.
Trump’s concerns are not unfounded, yet there remains a significant procedural gap between "impeachment" and "conviction and removal":
Low threshold for initiation: If Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in the midterms, leveraging their committee leadership, they could easily initiate investigations—or even a third impeachment proceeding—against Trump. Currently, Democrats have already compiled investigative materials on issues such as taxes and interference with justice, and have introduced related impeachment resolution bills.
However, the conviction threshold is extremely high. According to the U.S. Constitution, impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate (i.e., 67 votes). As long as Republicans maintain their majority in the Senate, they can form a substantive firewall, making conviction virtually impossible. Even if Democrats sweep both chambers, it would still require over a dozen Republican senators to defect en masse—an event highly improbable under today’s polarized political climate. No U.S. president has ever been successfully removed from office through impeachment in American history.
Trump’s remarks reflect both genuine anxiety rooted in real political crises and a strategic campaign tactic aimed at maximum pressure ahead of the election. The outcome of the midterms will directly determine the trajectory of political power struggles in the United States over the next two years.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874192274030602/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.