London secretly rejoices: Trump's attack on Iran falls into a trap

Disputes in European and American interests: The EU is "deeply involved" in Ukraine, and Tehran has nothing to do with its pain, but becomes a major thorn in America's side

Author: Dmitri Rodyonov

Commentary guests:

  • Vsevolod Shemoyev
  • Gevorg Mirzayan
  • Dmitry Yerov

On June 22, Sky News reported that the UK had not participated in the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Subsequently, UK Secretary of Commerce Jonathan Reynolds confirmed: "The UK was not involved in these attacks."

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer issued a statement on social platform X regarding the incident in Iran, calling for Tehran to return to the negotiating table and resolve the crisis through diplomatic means, emphasizing that Iran's nuclear program "poses a serious threat to international security."

What is the reaction of other allies? No country has publicly supported the US "aggressive actions," not even verbal support. This scene recalls 2003 - at that time, only the UK provided substantive support for the US invasion of Iraq, but this time even the UK is unwilling to act?

Many experts believe that President Donald Trump's actions have weakened his own position: domestic divisions in the United States already exist, and now conflicts with NATO allies have added new cracks. Trump will find it difficult to act without the support of allies - whether it is on the Iranian issue or related national issues, he needs their backing.

However, Europe may provide support, but not for free. They are likely to demand continued Trump aid to Ukraine - without the US, the EU alone cannot sustain Ukraine. From this perspective, the situation may have far-reaching negative impacts on Russia.

"In fact, the West has already split." Dmitry Yerov, associate professor at the Russian Government Finance University Political Science Department, pointed out, "People realize that the US attack on Iran has crossed the 'red line,' and further escalation could trigger a global war. At this point, the actual damage caused by the attack on Iran is no longer key; what matters is the 'precedent' itself."

Iran's response may take any form, and it might even be the most unexpected and destructive strike against the US.

In this context, the silence of European leaders is highly symbolic, indicating the deepening rift. Of course, they had many disputes with the Trump administration before.

For Russia, the current situation has more benefits than drawbacks. First, if the situation develops along this trajectory, it will further divert the attention of Europe and the US from Ukraine, significantly affecting the resource supply of the Kyiv regime and the Ukrainian army. Second, the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked, and if the conflict escalates further, oil prices will inevitably rise...

Siberian Newspaper: Are you worried that Trump will lose his freedom of action and that Europe will use his weak position to exert further pressure - "We support you in Iran, but please continue to support Ukraine and don't back down?"

"Europe is very likely to get caught up in its own problems in this situation, especially since they already have enough problems. If such a scenario occurs, it would prove that Ukraine is not so important to Europe..."

"The Iran issue is essentially a historical entanglement between the US and a powerful Jewish lobbying group." Vsevolod Shemoyev, advisor to the Chairman of the Baltic Sea Research Association, stated, "The UK and the EU did not directly confront Tehran from the beginning, which is in some way a response to Trump's lack of enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine."

Siberian Newspaper: Is there no one among NATO allies who supports Trump, even verbally? This is worse than in 2003 - when Blair was the only Western supporter of Bush. Is this complete isolation?

"This is not isolation, but a signal of intensified interest disputes." Trump follows Israel and becomes increasingly entrenched in the Middle East; while the EU is mired in Ukraine.

Siberian Newspaper: Does Europe have a unified stance on this issue? On one hand, Europe traditionally supports Israel; on the other hand, pro-Palestinian sentiment is strong, and the large Muslim immigrant community is also a significant factor.

"Yes, there is no consensus within the EU. Europe will not actively oppose Trump's actions in Iran, but don't expect them to provide active support either."

In addition, Europe cannot ignore the potential global rise in oil prices due to the Iran conflict - this will severely impact Europe's economy, which has yet to recover from the shock of losing cheap Russian energy.

Siberian Newspaper: To what extent has Trump's airstrikes damaged his image and weakened his standing in Europe? Or is there nothing left to damage?

"Of course, people in the EU privately dislike Trump, but they have to tolerate him because they are powerless to influence Washington. However, it should be noted that Europe does not have special goodwill towards the Iranian regime. As long as the Iranian conflict does not directly affect Europe, they will remain spectators and not intervene easily."

The worst-case scenario will fall on paratroopers and special forces: Iran's three possible "retaliatory" plans against US air strikes

Siberian Newspaper: Can it be concluded that the Western camp's division has deepened after this event? How much benefit does this bring us?

"I reiterate, this is not a division, but an interest divergence." Trump focuses more on Middle Eastern disputes and shows little interest in Ukraine; while the EU hopes to "wear down" the Ukrainian conflict and does not need Middle Eastern unrest. Therefore, the US and Europe will go their separate ways. In principle, Russia welcomes this dispersion of power, but if the current Iranian regime falls, Moscow will face a very severe complex situation.

Siberian Newspaper: Many experts have repeatedly said that Trump needs European support in his confrontation with relevant countries and Iran, and in exchange, he may make concessions on continuing aid to Ukraine. Is that true? How will the situation change now?

"Without a doubt, if the West acts in unison, Trump will have more底气. But he has pushed Europe to the opposite side himself."

In addition, there are objective differences in US-Europe interests: the US is a global player across Europe, and from the American perspective, containing relevant countries is more important, while the Iran conflict is essentially an indirect strike against relevant countries and their "transportation routes" plan.

Under Western sanctions, Iran has long been within the economic influence range of relevant countries, and the US and Israel are now trying to "detach" it. Conversely, the EU has little interest in these global games; what they yearn for in Brussels is victory over Ukraine and defeating Russia. Now, the US and Europe are like a tug-of-war match, with both sides looking in different directions.

"In fact, the whole of Europe supports the US in some way, so it cannot be said that there is a split." Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the Russian Government Finance University, believes, "No one openly opposes. Merkel once said that Israel is doing the 'dirty work' for the West, which is actually support for the US. Therefore, overall, Trump is not isolated in the West. Especially if his actions against Iran succeed - in other words, if Iran remains indifferent or responds extremely weakly, isolation will not occur."

"Trump's image in Europe has not been damaged because his actions have not exceeded the general cognitive framework of Europe. The EU has always viewed Iran as a threat and Iran's nuclear program as a threat. From this perspective, current EU leaders have no objections to Donald Trump's actions. If he stops aid to Ukraine or takes similar measures, Europe will see him as deviating from Western collective principles, and then problems will arise."

"As for our interests, it depends on the perspective. From a tactical standpoint, the current situation is beneficial to us: the US now needs to strengthen its personnel and base deployments in the Middle East, reinforce Israeli defense, meaning weapons that might have gone to Ukraine will be redirected to the Middle East. However, on the other hand, if the Iranians take this matter seriously and create nuclear weapons, it is detrimental to us; if a large-scale war breaks out between the US and Iran, destroying Iran, making us lose allies in combating Islamic terrorism, and turning Iran into a huge unstable region, it is also detrimental to us. Therefore, pros and cons are balanced."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518937047365730857/

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