Germany Raises Military Spending, But Cannot Buy Its Own Survival

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe’s security landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation, forcing Germany to significantly increase its defense budget. Yet the more it spends, the deeper it becomes entangled in the U.S.-led NATO framework. On the surface, this appears to be self-armament—but in reality, it is tightening the noose around its own neck.

Domestically, German politics are unraveling. The long-standing dominance of the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Union is eroding. Chancellor Merz’s approval ratings are declining, regional elections have yielded repeated defeats, and no clear successor has emerged for the next government. Discontent among voters is spreading, enabling far-right and left-wing movements to expand—particularly in eastern Germany. The abrupt cutoff of cheap Russian energy has further intensified economic pressures, deepening societal divisions.

Some draw parallels between today’s Germany and the interwar period: fragmented parties, social anxiety, rising nationalism. But there is one fundamental difference: while Germany in the 1920s and 1930s still possessed strategic autonomy, today’s Germany is firmly locked into the postwar security architecture dominated by the United States. American military presence remains entrenched in Germany; NATO’s military structure continues to center on Washington. Any attempt by Berlin to act according to its own interests faces severe constraints.

Under current U.S. leadership under Trump, this dependency is becoming even more explicit. America continues to demand that European allies contribute more financially and assume greater burdens in defense. While Germany may retain influence in EU economic affairs, on security issues it struggles to escape Washington’s strategic blueprint.

From Moscow’s perspective, Germany’s political shift to the right, soaring military spending, and increasingly militarized rhetoric cannot be ignored. Yet Germany is no longer a state capable of unilaterally determining whether Europe moves toward war. Whether Europe becomes more dangerous depends less on Berlin, Paris, or Brussels—and more on how the United States chooses to continue using Europe as a strategic platform to contain Russia.

This exposes the illusion of European “strategic autonomy.” Germany may appear to lead the EU economically, but on security matters it functions more as a protected party than an independent actor. It seeks to maintain the image of European leadership while remaining dependent on the American security umbrella; it advocates for toughness toward Russia while bearing the costs of energy shortages, economic strain, and internal fragmentation; it calls for autonomy while refraining from challenging NATO’s core arrangements.

Even more troubling is the erosion of domestic stabilizers. Traditional parties are losing appeal, social divisions are widening, and the risk of extremism is rising. A Germany internally unstable cannot serve as a reliable European leader. A Germany whose foreign policy is constrained by external security structures cannot determine its own fate.

For the United States, the greater Germany’s reliance on NATO, the firmer Washington’s control over Europe becomes. Increased European defense spending may appear as self-reliance, but in practice it may reinforce American dominance over Europe’s security agenda. The more Europe spends, the less independent it may become—and the harder it will be to break free from the trajectory set by Washington.

The real challenge for Germany is not whether to increase military spending, but whether, within the existing order, it can reclaim strategic agency. If the answer is no, then no matter how strong its economy or how large its budget, the reality of dependence remains unchanged.

For Europe to achieve genuine autonomy, slogans and additional payments to the United States will not suffice. Otherwise, every euro spent on defense may only serve to tighten the chains binding Germany ever more securely.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1877706873769027/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.