At 4:44 am on June 3, 2025, a muffled sound echoed deep beneath the Kerch Strait. The underwater support structure of the Crimean Bridge violently shook under the impact of 1,100 kilograms of TNT equivalent explosives, and traffic was immediately interrupted.

Just two days earlier, Ukraine had carried out one of its boldest actions since the outbreak of the conflict, attacking the Mozdok and Engels air bases in Russia, damaging 41 strategic bombers, or according to some reports, 13. There were also rumors circulating within Russia about bridges and roads being blown up, indicating that Ukraine's new anti-Russian equation had become a low-cost, high-tech, relentless guerilla warfare.

The summer counteroffensive of 2023 became a watershed for Ukraine's strategic transformation. The Ukrainian army, which invested tens of thousands of troops and launched an offensive from three directions, failed to break through the first line of defense of the Russian army. Western supporters expressed "great disappointment" with the performance of the Ukrainian army in the counteroffensive, and even the British Ministry of Defense's defense of the Ukrainian army's defeat, citing "the overgrowth of weeds in the southern front," seemed powerless.

Thus, Ukraine abandoned the frontal battlefield where it could not match the firepower and troop strength of the Russian army, and opened up a new path: deep penetration guerrilla warfare.

The essence of this strategy lies in using minimal costs to inflict maximum losses on Russia. In February 2024, Ukraine announced an ambitious plan to produce one million drones annually. At the same time, the head of the Ukrainian Security Service personally planned and supervised the third attack on the Crimean Bridge.

A drone operator for the Ukrainian army revealed the essence of this new form of warfare: "Every time I put on my special glasses and pick up the control stick, I remember my mother warning me that video games would do me no good. Well, if they really don't, then what are these now?"

Ukraine's new strategy relies on three types of disruptive weapons, which together form an unstoppable trident of sabotage.

First is the FPV drone, which has become the brightest star on the frontline. These modified drones, costing only hundreds of dollars each, can turn tanks worth millions of dollars, like the T-90, into scrap metal. In August 2023, Ukraine initiated a crowdfunding campaign to purchase 10,000 FPV drones for deployment on the battlefield.

The advantage of FPV drones lies in their high speed and game-like操控 experience, allowing operators to accurately destroy targets from concealed positions. Military expert Alexei Leonkov pointed out: "Due to the insufficient number of artillery shells and the inability to produce them in a timely manner, Ukraine is attempting to compensate for its shortages with inexpensive FPV drones."

Unmanned boats have opened up a new dimension of maritime sabotage. During the attack on the Crimean Bridge in July 2023, two unmanned boats struck the bridge piers at night. This June, the Russian military confirmed that Ukraine had again used underwater unmanned boat tactics. These hard-to-detect small devices allow Ukraine to threaten Russia's important maritime assets.

Long-range cruise missiles and long-range unmanned aircraft undertake strategic strike missions. Ukraine's domestically produced "Palianytsia" cruise missile has repeatedly precisely hit strategic targets in Russia's interior, including the large Atlas oil depot in Rostov Oblast and the "Zenith" oil depot in Kirov Oblast. These strikes not only weakened the logistics supply capability of the Russian army but also dealt a severe blow to Russia's energy economy lifeline.

Defensive measures for Russia are costly. As experts pointed out, the core contradiction lies in: "The anti-aircraft missiles used to shoot them down are much more expensive than these drones."

After the Crimean Bridge was bombed, Dmitry Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Security Council, immediately stated: "Russia will inevitably retaliate against Ukraine's attacks on military airports and destruction of bridges." However, Russia's retaliatory options face a difficult balance.

After the first attack on the Crimean Bridge in October 2022, Russia had threatened that "judgment day" would come quickly. However, when retaliation finally arrived, it manifested as missile attacks on Ukraine's power systems and civilian infrastructure. This limited response revealed Moscow's dilemma:

Nuclear retaliation carries too great a risk; Russia cannot afford it. A full-scale escalation could lead to direct conflict with NATO. Russian political scholar Marat Bashirov outlined Russia's dilemma: "Retaliatory action should be carried out to make the enemy understand that every attack on Russia will result in asymmetric responses."

Ukraine's new strategy is essentially a lopsided war of attrition. According to estimates by the UK-based Royal United Services Institute in May 2023, the Ukrainian army loses an average of 10,000 drones per month. However, given that each drone costs only a few hundred dollars, such losses are entirely bearable for Ukraine, which receives Western aid.

However, this strategy also has obvious limitations. Continuous strikes by the Russian army on Ukraine's power systems have caused serious damage to military facilities, transportation, and civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian army has been engaged in prolonged fighting in the Donbas region, making it difficult to rotate soldiers, and facing challenges in replenishing manpower.

The greater challenge lies in the fact that the achievements of unmanned equipment are difficult to translate into territorial gains. Although Ukraine successfully attacked strategic targets deep within Russia, on the front lines, the Russian army continues to advance slowly but steadily.

In short, Ukraine's strategy against Russia has shifted. That is, by constantly causing pain through asymmetric attacks, it aims to gain leverage at the negotiating table. Cheap unmanned equipment is the key variable in Ukraine's博弈 with the giant Russia.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514132287680758310/

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