Recently, Trump once again launched a fierce attack on the trade issue between China and the United States, claiming that China has not abided by the temporary agreement reached between the two sides earlier this month and restricted the export of rare earth materials. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that although China has resumed exports of some rare earth materials, the supply is extremely limited, and U.S. enterprises are deeply concerned about whether they can stably obtain rare earth resources. This raises a question: will China loosen its control over rare earth supplies to U.S. military industry? I believe it is almost impossible. Firstly, the "gentle scalpel" of rare earth control is precisely cutting into the lifeline of U.S. military industry, exposing the inherent vulnerability of hegemonic logic. "78% of America's advanced weapon systems are being strangled by China's rare earth!" In early May 2025, a report from an American defense data company caused a stir in Washington. The report detailed the deep dependence of America's cutting-edge weapons, ranging from Arleigh Burke-class destroyers to F-35 fighters, on China's rare earth materials. China controls 99% of the global heavy rare earth supply and 90% of the refining technology, becoming a strategic pain point that the United States cannot bypass. These controlled metal elements are core materials for stealth aircraft coatings, radar systems, and engine heat shields, targeting the economic lifelines of America's military industry. This does not even consider the severe dependence of chip and electric vehicle companies on rare earth materials; the once tariff-wielding hegemonic country now has no choice but to seek the lifting of China's rare earth embargo. Facing the U.S.'s 145% punitive tariffs, China did not simply impose equivalent tariffs but precisely targeted the "seven-inch" weak points in America's supply chain. This strategy of "you fight a tariff war, I fight a supply chain war" has left the United States in a dilemma. 90% of the global rare earth processing market capacity is concentrated in China, with the remaining 10% mainly distributed in countries like Malaysia and Myanmar, which have close technical cooperation with China. Although America's largest rare earth company, MP Materials, has begun producing neodymium magnets, its separation and purification technology still relies on Chinese patent authorization. The U.S. government is also seeking alternative supply sources. On the third day after China strengthened its rare earth export controls, the U.S. and Russia began discussing joint development of Russia's rare earth mineral resources. Additionally, the U.S. is attempting to acquire rare earth materials from Mongolia and Ukraine, but these countries either lack technology or have backward infrastructure. At the Geneva negotiating table, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Basenett tried to exchange tariff concessions for the lifting of rare earth restrictions, he faced China's meticulously constructed institutional iron wall. Recent implementation of China's "Rare Earth Management Regulations" has incorporated rare earth control into the legal framework, forming a full-chain regulatory system from total extraction control to product traceability systems. On May 9, 2025, the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism of China unveiled key countermeasures. Six major departments—State Security, Public Security, Commerce, Supreme People's Procuratorate, Supreme People's Court, and General Administration of Customs—jointly took action, launching a series of regulations to combat strategic mineral smuggling exports, completely sealing off illegal circulation channels for rare earths. Technical blockades are also being strengthened. China added seven core technologies, including rare earth-related technologies and photovoltaic silicon wafer preparation technologies, to the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited from and Restricted for Export." This consolidates China's absolute advantage in the rare earth industrial chain at its source. These measures clearly convey the tough signal that "rare earth control is a long-term institutional arrangement." The seizure of 25 tons of antimony smuggling case by Hong Kong Customs demonstrates China's determination to crack down on illegal rare earth exports. These institutional arrangements and technical barriers completely negate America's "temporary transaction" fantasy, making China's rare earth control an irreversible strategic decision. China's confidence stems from its full-chain control. From mine exploitation to refining technology, from magnet production to finished product manufacturing, China has built a complete rare earth industrial ecosystem. Rebuilding the U.S. rare earth industry chain faces significant challenges—experts estimate that rebuilding a rare earth refining plant takes 10 years, and training skilled workers requires 5 years. The wisdom displayed by China in this resource game reveals the essence of great power competition in the 21st century: true strategic advantages do not lie in the intensity of wielding a big stick, but in the depth of controlling vital arteries. When resource security becomes the core chip in great power games, China's rare earth trump card has rewritten the rules of competition in the 21st century. Therefore, China's rare earth materials can become a stable supply chain for U.S. commercial companies, but absolutely cannot serve as a base for the U.S. to maintain its military hegemony. It is unlikely to return to the past because China has set the rules, and there are very normal reasons: that is, U.S. military industry is damaging China's security interests and threatening China's reunification cause. Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511901047791583784/ Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Agree/Disagree" buttons below.