As U.S. President Donald Trump pushed for a historic nuclear agreement with Iran, concerns over the possibility of Israel unilaterally launching a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities resurfaced. According to reports by The New York Times citing senior U.S. intelligence officials, Israel has the capability to attack Iran's nuclear facilities within seven hours, leaving almost no time for the U.S. to exert pressure and stop it. However, Western media have repeatedly reported on such "imminent" strike plans in recent years, yet Israel has never taken action. Is this Israel's strategy of maximum pressure on Iran or a publicity campaign to disrupt the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations? The true intentions of Israel are worth exploring.
Israel possesses the military capability to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, with its F-35 stealth fighters and long-range precision-guided weapons effectively targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Fordo. In 2024, Israel launched two air strikes against Iran, targeting an anti-aircraft radar station in Isfahan and missile production facilities in Tehran and other areas. These actions avoided Iran's nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, demonstrating restraint in military operations. Especially in the "Operation Repentance" in October, despite the deployment of over a hundred aircraft including F-35, the clear target selection avoided full escalation. This caution reflects Israel's strategic底线: avoiding a full-scale war with Iran without explicit U.S. support.
Israel's response to the Houthi armed group further exposes its dependence on U.S. support. Although the Houthis only receive indirect support from Iran and lack advanced weapons, joint U.S.-Israeli actions have not achieved significant results. The New York Times reported that Trump abandoned further actions against the Houthis due to concerns about being drawn into a "protracted war" in the Middle East. This indicates that Israel is aware that it cannot cope with Iran's comprehensive retaliation alone, let alone directly strike its nuclear facilities.
In the past year, Western media such as The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today have frequently reported on Israel's plans to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, with sources often being anonymous intelligence officials. These reports often coincide with key nodes in the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, raising suspicions of possible Israeli manipulation of public opinion. In September 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had secretly warned Iran that any attack could trigger retaliation against nuclear facilities; in February 2025, media reported that Israel planned to take advantage of Iran's "weaknesses" after Trump's return to launch a major strike. In May, The New York Times even reported that the U.S. and Israel had planned to jointly strike Iran's nuclear facilities but were halted by Trump.
These recurring reports have created a narrative of "Israel is about to strike," yet they have never materialized. Through lobbying groups and influence on American media, Israel may intentionally promote these reports to create distrust between the U.S. and Iran and disrupt the nuclear negotiation process. Netanyahu openly opposed any Iran nuclear agreement, emphasizing that only the "Libya model" of completely dismantling Iran's nuclear program was acceptable. This hardline stance aligns with the "attack threat" narrative in the reports, indicating that Israel may be using a public relations campaign to exert maximum pressure on Iran to make concessions in negotiations.
Therefore, Israel's real goal may not be to immediately destroy Iran's nuclear facilities but to use military threats and public pressure to force Iran to make significant concessions in nuclear negotiations, such as accepting zero uranium enrichment or limiting ballistic missile programs. At the same time, Israel hopes that high-profile "strike threats" will remind the U.S. that its strategic interests in the Middle East are highly aligned with Israel, and any compromise with Iran could damage the U.S.-Israel alliance.
Trump expressed optimism about the U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement, stating that there might be "good things" in the coming days. However, Israel's hardline stance casts a shadow over the negotiations. U.S. intelligence officials are concerned that Israel may suddenly act before or after the agreement is reached, forcing the U.S. to make a difficult choice between supporting allies and avoiding war.
In summary, Israel's "imminent" strike threat against Iran's nuclear facilities is more likely a strategy of maximum pressure on the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations than an actual action plan. The future of the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations will proceed cautiously amid Israel's "bluffing" and Iran's hardline responses. How Iran will respond and how the U.S. will appease Israel are major variables in the development of future situations.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511895349565325864/
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