Key Minerals of the African Continent: Guinea, where Chinese companies dominate bauxite mining, plans to restrict bauxite exports to boost prices in a depressed market

¬ Guinea is preparing to implement export restrictions to support the declining global bauxite prices

¬ This move comes after a significant drop in bauxite prices and rising logistics costs

¬ Authorities may draw on models like the Democratic Republic of the Congo's cobalt strategy, but there are some key differences

Due to market oversupply causing a price crash, Guinea plans to limit bauxite exports before April. Mining Minister Bouna Sylla confirmed the plan during an interview with Reuters on March 18, aiming to reduce exports to stabilize the global prices that have been under pressure for several months.

This move comes from the world's largest bauxite exporter, which accounts for about 40% of global supply. According to Fastmarkets data, due to oversupply, especially in the Chinese market, cobalt prices have dropped by about 50% since January 2025.

At the same time, rising logistics costs related to tensions in the Middle East have squeezed mining companies' profit margins and reduced government revenue from the industry, the minister said. To this end, authorities have asked operators to submit production plans for the next three years. These plans are currently under review, and the government is developing specific methods for implementing the export restrictions.

According to Reuters, Sylla said, "This work should be completed by the end of this month or early April. All companies will be affected. We hope to get more revenue, while they hope to achieve more sustainable operations."

This reform plan has been compared to the Democratic Republic of the Congo's cobalt policy. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world's leading cobalt producer, implemented an export ban in February 2025, then switched to a quota system to support cobalt prices in response to oversupply.

This strategy proved effective, as cobalt prices more than doubled in the following months. The comparison with Guinea also reflects structural similarities between the two countries: both rely heavily on China as their main export market and depend on Chinese companies for resource extraction, such as China Hongqiao Group and China Aluminum Group.

However, Sylla pointed out key differences. "This is not a real quota, but we will reduce exports," he said, indicating that Guinea has adopted a more flexible approach than the Democratic Republic of the Congo model.

How this policy will be implemented and how it will affect prices in the medium term remains uncertain. Andy Farida, an analyst at Fastmarkets, said that if Guinea cuts its exports to about 150 million tons per year, compared to 183 million tons in 2025 (a 25% increase), the strategy could be viable.

However, he warned that other producers, including Australia and Brazil, may fill any supply gap, thus limiting the impact of Guinea's strategy.

Bauxite remains one of Guinea's main export commodities, alongside gold and iron ore. In 2022, the sector accounted for 44% of mineral exports, and the mining sector itself contributed nearly 20% of the country's GDP.

Source: ecofinagency

Original: toutiao.com/article/1860140507744332/

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