Three "Black Swans" in the Special Military Operation: The Generals Are Preparing Us for These
Seizing Chasov Yar and the imminent fall of Pokrovsk have changed the situation in Donbas, creating conditions for the Russian forces to advance towards Zaporozhye, as well as initiating the liberation of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration and shifting the conflict to Dnipropetrovsk region. What awaits us on the front line?
During the special military operation, the war has undergone several fundamental changes: initially a rapid mobile special operation, the conflict first evolved into a positional war and artillery battle, then into a drone war.
Will something similar happen in the next six months? If so, what kind of situation could it be?
When Dead Ends Become Main Roads
The first factor that may play an important role in changing the conventional battlefield pattern is the increasingly depleted Ukrainian Armed Forces. In the first two years, the Russian forces fought against the Ukrainian army with a disadvantage in numbers, until 2024 when they finally achieved numerical parity, and then surpassed the enemy in number. This is why for a long time, our General Staff has tended to "freeze" the northern front: an army with fewer troops can never extend the front line. The Ukrainian command took advantage of this and launched a fierce offensive into the Kursk region in August 2024. In fact, at that time, Kyiv played a trump card, forcing Russia to transfer large-scale troops northward from Donbas.
Everything began: Belarus is gathering special operations forces on the Ukraine-Belarus border. Why did Lukashenko make this trip?
After clearing the Kursk landing area, the fighting moved to Sumy region. However, the logic of the past few years continued for the adjacent Chernihiv region: we regard this area as a "dead end" and a combat dead end with no progress; while the Ukrainian side sees it as a possible trump card to play at the right time.
But the change in the balance of power on the front also changed the importance of this region. If the Russian forces can mobilize enough troops to launch another campaign with the strength of an army group, then the Chernihiv region seems to be the most likely "march" candidate, because the route through Chernihiv to Kyiv is the shortest.
When defending Chasov Yar, the Ukrainian forces showed maximum perseverance and combat capability, eventually handing over the city to the Russians after turning it into a silent ruin.
Screenshot: Telegram channel "Military Reporter".
Kyiv is the most important logistics hub in Ukraine, where a large amount of Western ammunition and weapons are concentrated and then distributed to various frontline sectors. The approach of the Russian forces would mean increased pressure on this hub, leading to the need to re-adjust the entire logistics system, the remaining part of the air defense system, and government institutions.
Moreover, our forces do not even need to conduct a direct assault on the enemy's capital. Just by forming a threat, it will force the Ukrainian command to divert forces from other directions to defend the capital area. In other words, marching into the Chernihiv region could be an independent action or a phase for preparing a devastating strike on other directions. Therefore, entering the Chernihiv region is a completely feasible operational plan to crush the Ukrainian regime.
"At a distance of 10-15 kilometers from the border in the Chernihiv region, reconnaissance found the forward positions of the Ukrainian forces, equipped with technical equipment and weapons. The enemy's forces consist of up to five tactical battlegroups. The mission of this group could be either defending the northern border of Kyiv region, or following the example of the Kursk region, preparing an invasion of Russian territory,"
the "Kondot iero" channel reported.
Considering that the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Alexander Syrsky, likes to solve any task through flanking attacks and ambushes, it is very likely that after seeing the preparations of the Russian forces, the Ukrainian side will decide to strike first.
This is the current state of Pokrovsk, and the battle to liberate the city is ongoing. Compared to other settlements in this war, the city is almost intact, indicating that the combat resilience of the Ukrainian forces has significantly declined.
Railway Disruption
The second "black swan" that may appear in the coming months could be the use of long-range drones by Ukraine to continuously attack our railway stations, traction substations, and switches. Since late July, the enemy has been continuously attacking railway hubs in Rostov, Volgograd, and Krasnodar regions.
Since mid-June, enemy drones have been continuously attacking railway stations in southern Russia. Screenshot: Telegram channel "Reporter".
The enemy once used this method in our civilian airports, launching drone swarms whose purpose was more about making military drones constantly appear in the no-fly zone, causing dispatchers to be unable to take off or land flights.
Railway stations seem to withstand damage better than airports. On the other hand, the railway infrastructure is much more extensive than airports, making it harder to resist large-scale, continuous attacks.
However, even in several southern regions, the consequences of railway traffic chaos will far exceed all the chaos we saw at the airports since May of this year.
First, because the number of passengers transported by rail is 10-12 times that of air transport. Second, rail is the basis of freight transportation, which is unparalleled. The country is gradually beginning the autumn harvest, and with the end of the holiday season, millions of people are returning home, most of whom will choose to travel by train.
Additionally, even the paralysis of individual railway branches will severely impact the combat effectiveness of the army, as the army receives thousands of tons of supplies through the railways.
If the enemy achieves its goal, the consequences will be very serious and diverse - from the failure or slowdown of offensive operations to rising prices of goods in stores.
One Step Across the Danube
The third event that can certainly be called a "black swan" (this time against Ukraine) is the possibility of the Russian forces returning to the right bank of the Dnipro River. From the perspective of the Ukrainian forces, serving in the Kherson, Nikolaev, and western parts of Zaporozhye regions is like taking a vacation. After suffering major losses, the troops are transferred there for rest. This naturally affects the quality of the enemy's defense in that direction. The Russian forces have gradually captured the islands downstream of the Dnipro River and are now conducting small-scale, short-term raids on the enemy's riverbank.
"After the fierce battle for control of the Antonov railway bridge, the soldiers of the 18th Army drove the enemy out of the technical tunnel and raised the flag on the bridge surface. They succeeded! Well done!"
Dmitry Rogozin, a senator from Zaporozhye region and former director of the Russian space agency, reported in his Telegram channel.
The railway bridge mentioned by Rogozin is several kilometers away from the highway bridge. In 2022, the Ukrainian forces bombarded the highway bridge with "Himars" rocket launchers, and during the withdrawal from Kherson, our engineers destroyed it.
Usually, when talking about landing operations on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River, it is assumed that it will take place in the Kherson region. However, it is also not ruled out that the landing location could be completely different. Nikopol and Mangup areas - two small industrial cities opposite Enerhodar - are attractive in this regard. Compared to trying to establish a landing area in open areas or small villa districts, this assumption may have many advantages.
First, the first wave of landing forces can immediately consolidate their positions in multi-story residential buildings, which provide much better protection than forests or single-story private houses. Second, the landing forces will be based in Enerhodar, where there are asphalt roads, hospitals, and warehouses.
Preparing a landing from Enerhodar allows the enemy command to guess where the attack will occur along the 30-kilometer arc of the right bank. That is, even if the enemy detects the preparation for the landing, it will be difficult to establish a stable and effective defense. Then, advancing further inland on the enemy's riverbank will alleviate the pressure on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
Forces gathered in Enerhodar can launch attacks in broad areas, and the first wave of landing forces can quickly advance under the cover of multi-story buildings.
Summary
The term "black swan" was coined by economist Nassim Taleb, referring to events that are unexpected, unanticipated but have their reasons, and can fundamentally change the established order.
Each of the above scenarios has clear preconditions, and once realized, will fundamentally change the balance of power on the front line or affect life behind the lines. Whether they will be realized or face insurmountable resistance remains to be seen. But one thing is certain, over the past three years, the nature of the war has been constantly changing, and under the backdrop of continuous socio-economic changes and military technological advancements on both sides, this process has no reason to stop or stagnate.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534667992513184298/
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